The question is not whether we have a crash, but whether it is more painful than it need be. The Great Depression was Great because the actors at that time made things even worse than they had to be. Can we avoid the same? Perhaps. We are about to see if you really can learn from history.
Generally on the first look, the view of Generational Dynamics method and History - are two absolute opposites.
Anyway I agreed with catfishncod because - only when event is already happened, you can with more sureness developed the complete "story".
That is of course clear even for the - Generational Dynamics method.
This method is quite interesting but as I could understand from this site - there are some paradigmatic limits in it.
For example:1. -
the view on the all world events is - American. It is of course normal and could not be easy avoided, since everybody look on the world events (finances) from own point of view.2. - t
he paradigm probably very hard routed in the American minds is : "The Americans are always "good guys" - other people on the Planet can be "good" or "bad" depending in which relations they are to the "American way". I think this picture is developed with time of the US society in the last 100 years and perhaps could be explained with Generational theory... Perhaps, but I do not believe that generation of "Boomers, X-genarations etc. - have another picture on the own society.
It is clear that any (even the most friendly) critics of the US society and its monopolistic position in the world financial system - would be dismissed as "conspiracy" or even "hate" against USA and much worse - "world democracy".3. -
In one of explanations "inflation/deflation" case - John mentioned something like only a big war could made situation goint to the inflation (as in the Wiemar Germany). If we considerate that USA:
- has about 150 military bases in the foreign countries,
- fighting at least two big wars (Iraq & Afghanistan) with more than 200 thousands soldiers deployed there.
- huge amount of the intelligence organizations involved in the "war of terror"
- enormous amount of security personal (Home Security, police forces...
- with evidentially neccesity of almost 700 billion dollars - yearly
... it is really difficult to say that USA in "not in the big war".
The facts are obviously - opposite.
All this paradigms (and probably more of them) more or less influence the correct and objective predictions, even if some of them were evidentially proved with time.
Regarding financial development it would be interesting to see if Generational Dynamics method, History and perhaps Psychology has some explanation of the this assumption. Since:
- The financial system today is based on the dollar hegemony, with deviation of the "free market" - which should be the base of the economy.
- The monopoly position (since 1971) of the US dollar is destroyed definitely only
due to misuse of this position by the US administrations
- The enormous debt financed ALL activities of the US state as well as all wars of course cannot be infinite financed by the foreigners... Even worse some of those foreigner are politically in the conflict with the obvious US aggressiveness, and ONLY reason that they still financing the all US wars as well as complete state - is own intersect because big amount of dollars they have in treasuries. (Shares are already on the bottom - and for sure the foreigners know it too!)
Do you believe that all those foreigners do not thing to escape the - dollar trap?
With other words - what they have to loose - if US continue to live on the foreign money?
They have two possibilities:1. If they stop
infinite payment of US state (with all wars and even threats to this countries) - they loosing a big amount of money since dollar will be worthless.2. If they continued
with this madness - the US can never (even today) pay back this debt. Moreover, the US can aggressively use these debt money to develop more ("sophisticated") weapons in the future wars and threat this country as well.I believe that the First possibility is more real.
Additional, I believed that "the foreigners" after the "decision" to choose First option - going to try to make another financial system which is NOT based on deviation of the monopoly of dollar even if they are in position to loose huge amount of wealth.
Only question is if USA going to watch it - without aggression?
I am not sure.
I understand that this view probably would not be very popular here since this is "American site", but this is apparently also an site which try to find the next step in the world financial development - and this view is probably more "European" as you can imagine.
(I apologize for my incorrect English since it is not my native language.)