Can't argue with any of this. Russia is in similar situation to Austria-Hungary in late 1914. And like in that situation, their "up and coming" ally (China) will support them.Guest wrote: ↑Sat Feb 03, 2024 11:53 pmThe true number of Russian losses is secret, perhaps even unknown to the shambolic Russian army. Russia has, at best, 7-8 million military age males. Of that number, many are drug addled, have AIDS, are alcoholic, and mentally unbalanced, not that that would keep them out of the Russian army. A huge number of Wagner PMC prisoners are HIV positive. Drug use and alcohol abuse are rampant on the front line. Russia is a country with more grandparents than teenagers; more abortions than live births! The ethnic minorities that make up a huge percentage of Russian dead have meant ethnic unrest across the country. The working class is being decimated. Who will work in Russia's factories, farms, and maintain the already poor infrastructure? Are they going to bring in poorly skilled North Koreans?Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Feb 03, 2024 11:04 pmAs for recruitment, they're able to sustain their losses, since you've got plenty of Russians in miserable poverty that see the hiring bonuses as sufficient incentive despite the risk, around 150,000 prisoners that have taken the offer of a pardon, and conscripts who see no way out of their predicament. Terrible as their manpower losses sound, it is nevertheless sustainable. A total mobilization where millions are drafted would change this dynamic and lead people with much less to lose rising up.
The Russian army is still handing out substandard body armor, much of it useless.
Medical care in Russian army is terrible. Many Russian soldiers have endured entirely unnecessary amputations because of poor medical treatment.
Russia is throwing tons of substandard munitions at the Ukrainians, but it has sacrificed its economy to do that much.
I have serious doubts about Russia being able to sustain any of this. Ukraine has been devastated, but so has Russia. And worse, Russia is now an isolated pariah nation. Putin is gambling that Western oil demand will bring acceptance of Ukrainian losses and normalization. I don't see that happening.
And a bullet between Putin's eyes is the quickiest way out of all of this. And the people around Putin know this. Everyone knows this.
On the other side, Ukraine does have problems too.
The average Ukrainian soldier is in his 40s. They are great at defending, but not good at attacking as they have families, want to live, and understand the risks inherent in attacking. So they don't press attacks (which are usually costly in terms of casualties).
Then there is the west getting tired of supporting Ukraine (which, IMHO, is certainly self-defeating), and the personnel drama in the Ukrainian high command (Zelensky about to fire his widely respected Army chief).