Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[aeden]

72.24% tbills need more Cariboo btc coming up meat to grind up short. Roll offs into %5.5 from %5.4 .98181% net .01819%
UNITED STATES TREAS BILLS ZERO CPN 0.00000% 04/11/2024 5.555 @$97.499
Select lower beta direct cash flows as over 5 years hold. Yea we took some off TLT also as swing trade early.
Dry powder time into march sweeps.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2m2Lr_HqCfg
thread:
rfr = Ra = Rf + [Ba x (Rm -Rf)]

[aeden]

As noted, Dr. Copper and Mr. Bond as before will see what allows equity to consider.
The green mask are what was anticipated. Failure nodes to the Cantillon archives since 1971.
Giving the energy secretary a dollar for wages is way too generous.

[Higgenbotham]

Lottery Economy Update

It's been awhile since the last Lottery Economy Update. Since the last update, I have not been able to cash in on the lottery economy, but haven't thrown my tickets away either. I've been buying more tickets by slowly shorting more and more S&P double inverse funds as the market rises. About 2/3 of my account is in the S&P double inverse funds, 1/3 in cash. That means my account is 133% short, which is probably too much. Loaded as referred to above was probably somewhere around 100%. It was noted in the last lottery economy update that my account was down 0.4% on the year. That loss has increased to down 3% on the year as of today.

This window is another area from which the S&P could top and it's also a crash setup. That doesn't mean I'll be taking that last 1/3 and putting all of the account into double inverse shorts, but if the market does start to crash next week I will take advantage of it to the best of my ability.

Lottery Economy Update

I covered my entire short position in the last hour Friday.



On Monday, I will take the third draw of the year out of my account, taking it back to baseline, which is the thin red horizontal line. The draws taken out of the account year to date are marked with the thin vertical lines. So far this year, I am up 9%, with the S&P up 7%. Since I'm a bear being up with the S&P up is good performance. Last year, I was up 15% with the S&P down 20%, which is OK.

As far as what the market will do the remainder of the year, we are still within a crash cycle, though the market isn't behaving as it typically does when it crashes. The market is not in the 40 percent of the cycle that Crawford has noted all crashes take place in; that starts November 11. Typically, the stock market reacts to wars by selling the drums and buying the cannons, so it may be time to buy based on that. NYMO divergences have been noted. I could go on, but the point is on the short side the easy money, the high probability money has been made. That doesn't mean the market is going up but I will stand aside for now and look for easier targets. An example of an easier target might be the market gyrates wildly as it crashes. I noted Dollar General stock in the Financial Topics awhile back. That was a good target just a few days ago, but I was occupied with the short trade. Of late, Dollar General stock has been performing very well as the market drops.

I think the behavior of the markets the past few months continues to demonstrate that manipulation and fraud are the biggest businesses in America today, with waddling up to the window for a bailout the most in-demand job skill in America today. More on that later.

[aeden]

You got out on time.
Buy back window is open and the shorts are going to get clubbed.
YTD: book4: oct 2022 = 4.81% 8.13% 6.26% 7.64% 10.69% 13% 12.79% 13.31% 14.22% 16.34% 14.38% 14.82% oct ytd 2023 net 14.01%
Year end rally is going to club the shorts like baby seals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jboagc2vseA the s file
Market way over sold so we will as you noted H leave in appropriate terms.
Who lit the fuse.

[Higgenbotham]

So let me spell it out step by step, very slowly.

1. America is the richest country in the world.
2. America has a very high wealth gap.
3. Due to factors 1. and 2., there are a lot of very, very rich people in America.
4. The very, very rich people in America, by and large, want to keep it that way.
5. Rich people generally spend almost all of their time working or thinking about money and that's one reason why they are rich.
6. When a person spends all of his time working or thinking about money, that experience influences his view of the world.
7. For such a person, when any given topic comes up, how to make some money automatically enters front and center into the thought process.
8. For any given topic, some of the ways money can be made are buying political influence and influencing public opinion.
9. To influence public opinion, you can, for example, play to the media or buy a newspaper (The Washington Post, for example).
10. If you are going to buy media influence it helps to get it cheap because it buys more influence.
11. Very rich people understand that the average person is not as interested in money as they are.
12. The rich use things that the average person does care about to influence their opinions.
13. There are many ways the rich influence opinions to make money on any given issue and they will figure out how to do that before others do.
14. The average person may not understand how and why the rich influence their opinions because the average person doesn't think that way.
15. Added in anticipation - no, this is not a conspiracy theory.

Loss of comfort and lifestyle will lead to an explosion. The Russian Czars thought that it would never end, until it did.

The illusion of invincibility is far and away the most important asset a mature ruling elite has, because it discourages deliberate attempts at regime change from within. Everyone in the society, in the elite or outside it, assumes that the existing order is so firmly bolted into place that only the most apocalyptic events would be able to shake its grip. In such a context, most activists either beg for scraps from the tables of the rich or content themselves with futile gestures of hostility at a system they don’t seriously expect to be able to harm, while the members of the elite go their genial way, stumbling from one preventable disaster to another, convinced of the inevitability of their positions, and blissfully unconcerned with the possibility—which normally becomes a reality sooner or later—that their own actions might be sawing away at the old and brittle branch on which they’re seated.

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/ ... lites.html

[aeden]

https://twitter.com/IsraelWarRoom/statu ... 34531?s=20

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diTmxxmSf1Q

tracked bitcoin transactions
84 accounts seized to hamas

[Bob Butler]

The illusion of invincibility is far and away the most important asset a mature ruling elite has, because it discourages deliberate attempts at regime change from within.

Invincibility may have variations. Individual corporation may die, but corporations in general go on. Spain may no longer be a superpower, but the people living there need their children taught and roads paved. All powerful autocratic leaders may have been common in Agricultural Age kings and Industrial Age dictators, but not be part of the Information Age pattern. Ages my last a long time, but if something big effects things, even they shift occasionally.

But, yes, sawing away at the branch you are sitting on is an occupational hazard.

[Higgenbotham]

The illusion of invincibility is far and away the most important asset a mature ruling elite has, because it discourages deliberate attempts at regime change from within.

Invincibility may have variations. Individual corporation may die, but corporations in general go on. Spain may no longer be a superpower, but the people living there need their children taught and roads paved. All powerful autocratic leaders may have been common in Agricultural Age kings and Industrial Age dictators, but not be part of the Information Age pattern. Ages my last a long time, but if something big effects things, even they shift occasionally.

But, yes, sawing away at the branch you are sitting on is an occupational hazard.

Welcome to the Dark Age Hovel, Bob!



This is the scene from the chair where I had the back and forth with you yesterday. While we were doing that, my 3 year old was busy a few feet away from me. When I asked her what she was doing, she replied, "Building a city." She did it all on her own volition with no direction from me, either in the "building" or the future validity of the concept.

[richard5za]

........ my 3 year old was busy a few feet away from me. When I asked her what she was doing, she replied, "Building a city." .....

Excellent! Its a lovely age; enjoy.

[Bob Butler]

........ my 3 year old was busy a few feet away from me. When I asked her what she was doing, she replied, "Building a city." .....

Excellent! Its a lovely age; enjoy.

Creative, but if you don't mind I'll leave occupying the city to Barbie.

Another thought. Normally regions are pretty invincible. Most lands are occupied, and folks need their roads paved and children educated. But science projects sea level rise that for example exceeds the highest point in Florida. Other Pacific islands have vanished beneath the waves. While many here disregard science if it predicts something inconvenient, in this case in might be an example of thinking states invincible. Maybe not?