Just 3 remarks, let's change a little bit the point of view:
1-
It is not very interesting to blah-blah on if the computer is going to have more human intelligence than humans or not, the REAL question is: at some point (described as the Singularity) will have the train gone too far, so there is no other alternative that a FULL REPLACEMENT of humans by robots.
Based on the exponential power of computers (and the stupidity of humans in groups), I think 2030 is quite a good approximation for this inflexion point.
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2- What are the ONLY goals of the humanity? -a- Power (on other humans, but also on the earth) -b- Sex
On my point of view everything else is bullshit.
I read somewhere that you can already buy sex-robots, for sure they are going to be more "efficient" than ANY human person, and they are not going to protest. If you have better sex with a machine why should you have a family? By the way this opens the road (or the highways) to extremist and hyper-religious people who say that sex is bad... and back to the Middle Age (another solution) with hudge extermination.
On a philosophical point of view saying sex is "bad" it is giving to the sex a lot of power and it is giving a full poliical power to people who want to eradicate it... Again only sex and power...
Power: as I wrote before, I'm convinced that the first super-computer will be used to make you choose the politician that the lobbys want.
It is NOT for today but for very soon (10 years?)and in some countries statistics on what to say and not to say if you want to be elected are VERY advanced).
Why is "power" so important: because for people who look for power, humanity has NO meaning, only the goal has, so suicide of the humanity has strictly NO IMPORTANCE it if gives more power.
Look at high-religious people and the so called "extremists", for example, the ONLY things they want is another way to obtain more power, NEVER to build to better humanity...
Then where do you need super-computer? (aside from Science, but nobody cares anymore about Science)
- for manipulating the elections (so you think you elect someone of your choice, but as a matter of fact you never had the choice)
- for education (this is a VERY good entry point for producing human jellyfishes)
- for health management (I mean for killing humans as in "Green sun" and "electronicly" controlling your brain)
- for fund management (never forget that financial markets are NOT markets. If the are only controlled by computers, there is no more price on what has no real value, it becomes the Chaos: "share" has NO VALUE at all, it is only a piece of paper for having the right to play poker, but computer don't play poker, or they'll do it against humans)
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3- a remark: the civilization we have built looks ONLY for more efficiency, and there is ONLY ONE WAY TO HAVE A BETTER EFFICIENCY: this is to replace human by robots, there is NO OTHER WAY.
This mean to be more efficient WE HAVE TO ERADICATE THE HUMANS FROM THE EARTH, no other way... Think a little bit about it!
I do not know it that arrives by 2030, but we will have the POWER of doing so within the next 20 years....
As I wrote before, and John did also write that the best thing to do is to use "Brute force" to solve the problems, so we do not even need to have computers more intelligent as humans, we need to have more efficient machines to eradicate ANY WORK done by humans, this could begin starting from 2020. and when I say ANY work, I MEAN ANY work, even the definition of "work", this could need 100 years but it is feasible.
Will that arrive? I do not know the future. I think it will because
-a- human in group is really stupid
-b- our civilization is based on marketing, so the only idea we have is to sell something new to others and, for our ego, this is so nice to have more machines on "our orders".. (at the beginning, the the computers will replace the men who do marketing... and...
Remarks??
