Financial topics

[aeden]

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=zZ8KF9tI
It costs more than five bucks to dig it out of the ground and yolo so wait for a sane TA.
Stop walking on dead cats its rather disturbing.

thread: sogo shosha

[aeden]

Quote that made me laugh, "New highs are always bullish, except for the last one."

We will have a better view as indicated by 0ct8 sweeps.
No clue as we are idiots thus you will not go broke walking away.
Running is an issue.

[aeden]

https://www.americanbanker.com/news/bid ... y-industry
never seen that coming now did we

thread: taproot

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEKIYJXGKSo

[aeden]

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=PG9gnwK1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-txAt5n4cI

[aeden]

So it begins.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=Qpmr9ycK
Going to be a wonderful week end.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21euaOPVneM

Shouldn't underestimate this administration's incompetence, nor how utterly blind they are to reality.
These people really do believe their own filth propaganda. They got help....

America does not still understand that this is the gutting of their health care system as they once knew it.
Those that complained of folks dying on the streets due to lack of care have no concept of what awaits them now....
true lack of care is already here.
When we said Univercity started as to survive these gain of funtion lunatics and what they did they still did not get it.

China has decided to make their last stand of the Nation State, now. Here at this moment in time. They will not bail out Evergrande, they will allow their side of the Everything Bubble to pop, and they will use the economic crash to make a final sweep of consolidation of their power. They will make sure their Big Tech knows who is in charge and that it is not them. We read the white papers also.

Our crayon chewing morons stand on steps screaming insults about collasping skulls of the unborn that its a constitutional right but
save the organs for resale. Sick filth and we are sick of paying for it. You try that open border garbage elsewhere they would shoot your
ignorant ass or locking you in a cage if damned lucky. These imbecile think blue helmits will solve issues.

[aeden]

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=s3Sy3RT6
You have about a year to kick these thieving idiots to the curb then it gets real interesting.

[Higgenbotham]

From the Archduid's column of September 15 - "The Negative-Sum Economy":

With all this, let’s cycle back to the question we discussed at the beginning of this post: how to preserve wealth and avoid illth in the face of a difficult future. Most people who ask this want me to tell them what set of tokens they can hoard so that they will be able to exchange those tokens for wealth, at something like the same rate of exchange those tokens bring today. Most of them, though they’ve never heard of John Ruskin and don’t know the word “illth,” also want to use their tokens to avoid illth at something like the same rate they can today. Neither of these are possible, because wealth and illth are both functions of economic production. When the amount of wealth being produced is steadily dropping, and the amount of illth being produced is steadily increasing, any set of tokens—no matter what they happen to be—will command a smaller amount of wealth and avoid a smaller amount of illth.

That said, some tokens will lose value faster than others. Economists, like generals, reliably try to fight the next war using the weapons and tactics of the last one, and that has been a massive source of trouble over the last few decades. The last major era of economic crisis reached a peak in the 1930s, when the mismatch between an expanding economy and a gold-backed currency that couldn’t expand fast enough resulting in an epic depression. That was finally solved by abandoning the gold standard and flooding the economy with debt-based money.

When the global economy began to run into trouble in the 1970s, economists were still fixated on the experiences of the 1930s and tried to do the same thing all over again. That was a critical mistake, since the crisis of the 1970s was not caused by too much growth—it was caused by too little. Economists and policymakers have doubled down on the same mistake ever since, flooding the economy with money under the serene delusion that you can fix a shortage of wealth by increasing the number of tokens used to distribute it. That risked inflation, and the history of the last fifty years has been dominated by the struggle to find gimmicks to keep inflation under control while expanding the currency supply. (The culture of elite kleptocracy that has generated so many absurdly overinflated fortunes in recent years is one of these gimmicks.)

At this point, as a result, the single most pressing need the global economy faces is the need to clear away a spectacular oversupply of tokens. When the United States defaults on its unpayable debt or hyperinflates it out of existence—sooner or later it inevitably must do one or the other—that will take care of a lot of it, but by no means all. As the production of wealth declines and the production of illth increases, the mismatch between the supply of tokens and the supply of wealth will increase. To the extent that entire classes of tokens (such as US dollars) lose all their value, that will allow other classes to retain more of theirs, but every kind of token—yes, including gold—will have to shed a good share of its capacity to claim wealth and avoid illth.

All this can be summed up quite simply. During the long era of expansion made possible by the exploitation of fossil fuels, the world’s industrial nations had positive-sum economies: that is to say, the total amount of wealth in those nations increased on average from year to year, and it increased faster than the total amount of illth. Since the arrival of the first energy crisis in 1973, the world’s industrial nations have effectively had zero-sum economies: that is, the total amount of wealth—not of money, but of nonfinancial goods and services—remained largely static on average, while the total amount of illth rose to equal it. We are now moving into an age of negative-sum economies, in which the total amount of wealth decreases on average from year to year, while the total amount of illth rises steadily for a while.

In a negative-sum environment, trying to preserve wealth by stockpiling tokens is a fool’s errand, and no, it doesn’t matter what tokens you stockpile. Are there strategies that can deal effectively with such times? Yes, though they’re highly counterintuitive to minds raised to believe in limitless growth. We’ll discuss them in the first October post on this blog.

https://www.ecosophia.net/the-negative-sum-economy/

This reminds me of my comment about Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio awhile back. When things are on the long term upswing the Permanent Portfolio will both grow and outperform, but when things reverse to the long term downswing the Permanent Portfolio will shrink with everything else but it should still outperform by shrinking more slowly.

[Higgenbotham]

A car salesman told me something interesting yesterday. He said the MSRP for the Hyundai Palisade is around $48,000 but his dealership was selling them for about $8,000 over MSRP. He said "we got into trouble" doing that and as of yesterday morning he was told that they have to be sold at MSRP and no more. I didn't ask who they got into trouble with. Sounds to me like "somebody" wants to tamp inflation down.

[Higgenbotham]

Also, yesterday this box appeared on my Amazon account for the first time:



It may be coincidence or it may not. The reason it may not is that box could appear when inventory gets to a certain age and Amazon would like it moved. When it first appeared yesterday, the number of items they were suggesting for price decreases was 139. I did not decrease any prices. Since yesterday, price spikes have already taken out two of these inventory items (they were sold) without any price decreases.

Price spikes are consistently taking out about 1% of my inventory per day and I consider 100 days average turnover to be adequate given the fluctuations being seen.

Price spike for an item sold yesterday:



Amazon doesn't charge long term storage until an item has been in the warehouse more than 180 days and these items have been in no more than 70 days.

[vincecate]

Higgie, do you think Evergrande will pop the Chinese real estate bubble?