Financial topics

[aeden]

selling into
raising cash
grow a set
intrinsic value
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=xOWxQ4KP

In 1976 we watched there is no such thing as the silent majority because we control their cry and hue.
The only thing that exists is an unthinking majority and unthinking they will remain, as long as their escape from our rigorous service is the opiate of our entertainment industry.
By controlling industry, we have become the task masters and the people the slaves.
When the pressure of daily toil builds to an explosive degree, we have provided the safety valve of momentary pleasure.
The television and movie industries furnish the necessary temporary distraction.
These programs are carefully designed to appeal to the sensuous emotions, never to the logical thinking mind.
Because of this, the people are programmed to respond according to our dictates, not according to reason.
Silent they never are; thinking they will remain.”

The invisible rulers in the Communist countries have a world control over the propaganda and the governments in free countries.
We control every media of expression including newspapers, magazines, radio and television.
Even your music! We censor the songs released for publication long before they reach the publishers.
Before long we will have complete control of your thinking.

The way you boast, if this is true, it is frightening to think about our future, and that of Christianity...

“There will be a forced class warfare here in the United States and many will be liquidated.
You will unquestionably be among them....

Your people don’t have guts. We establish your thinking — we even place within you a ‘guilt complex’ making you afraid to criticize...
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=APyN22Er

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/sen ... esults-are

https://www.newsweek.com/mike-bloomberg ... bs-1487633
History is a set of lies agreed upon." - Napoleon
Midget Mike and gray matter people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLz-ktBpSIY

[Higgenbotham]

** 15-Jun-2020 World View: Law of Mean Reversion

> Would the areas need to be computed based on a log chart or a
> linear chart?

The Law of Mean Reversion refers to linear averages -- the average
value over a sufficiently long period of time should always be
the same. If you apply it to an exponentially growing value,
then you have to use the logarithm.

In 2007, a web site reader took one of the P/E ratio graphs that
I had posted, and added the colors purple and green:

• S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E1) 1871-2007

The Law of Mean Reversion says that the green regions have to have the
same area as the purple regions. Since 2007, there have been ALL
purple regions and NO green regions. Therefore, the reversion will be
much more severe than in the 1930s.

If the value being tested is an exponential growth value, then areas
of the purple and green regions would have no meaning, since the areas
aren't comparable. So it's necessary to take the logarithm for the
areas to be comparable.

I reread the discussion you had with Mike Alexander about the stock market and P/R (price to resources) back in 2015 on TFT, as well as his and your thoughts on a coming bear market.

His implication would be that (and in fairness I don't think Mike said this specifically) P/R will fall to historical values regardless of how long P/E stays over its trend value or how far it goes over its trend value prior to the onset of the bear market. These historical values depend primarily on whether the Fed backstops the bear market or not, which he points to as preventing the 2000-2002 decline from turning into a 1929-1932 style decline.

I don't buy that logic for the fundamental reason that the longer the bubble goes on, the more demand the Fed pulls forward, and the more debt and inefficiencies accumulate. The recent chart linked on percent zombie companies being one example of what that means, where thanks to the Fed, zombie companies, those who have been unable to service their debt for the past 3 years are at 20 percent, up from about 4% at the top of the 2007 bubble. If the criteria is reduced from 3 years to 1 year, the percent of zombies rises to about 40%.

I firmly accept that guessing what the results of a record breaking bubble in both time, price and extent (extent meaning the way the bubble has become so much of the economy itself) will be is a judgement call. The one thing I would say with certainty is what is coming will be a bear market and economic dislocation (a word I can use that does not imply any particular outcome) like no other in terms of its severity. It will not be just another bear market because the Fed will backstop it and that's the end of the story. Ultimately, solvency will be an issue and it will be more serious than it would have been in 2002 if nature had been allowed to run its course.

[John]

I could never figure out how P/R was supposed to work, and it seemed
to me it contained major flaws. I asked Mike some specific analytical
questions which, as I recall, he never answered.

[Higgenbotham]

I could never figure out how P/R was supposed to work, and it seemed
to me it contained major flaws. I asked Mike some specific analytical
questions which, as I recall, he never answered.

Well, Mike says P/R was able to nail the market turns in a way that other methods didn't, but he also goes on to say (I think elsewhere) that P/R correlates to GDP per capita divided by 42 plus or minus 3 for the postwar period. That sounds a bit like the Buffett indicator. The problem with all of this kind of stuff is it assumes GDP kind of trundles along like it always has (with perhaps the notable exception of the 1930s, but even then it never fell more than about 20 percent year to year and that was only one year). It's a great assumption until it doesn't.

[aeden]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcFV8etE_Jg

[aeden]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kanji_Ishiwara
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... mish-china
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/53m639t5

[Higgenbotham]

The problem with all of this kind of stuff is it assumes GDP kind of trundles along like it always has. It's a great assumption until it doesn't.

GDP trundling along...are more creative ways to counterfeit money all that is needed to keep the wheel in motion? And Fed backstops ALWAYS reduce the damage to under 5%? And the Great Depression was an anomaly?





Area bracketed in the red lines is the great debt buildup.

[aeden]

As noted. Donad J Trump understands the 1099 taxpayer mindset in a W2 command economy reality.
Simple political calculus. The 1099 people understand the point Government has one imperative and they are not it
in the BISH cults. As we have seen with the white flag globalist cults the indigenous people suffer just as the city people
suffer from destruction of land, sea and air quality. The proposition of stewardship is the only way either can or will survive.
One example is rubber alone over the last eighty years and the debt plantations cults of the so called civilization.
The other is moisture saturation maps of areas unfit for corporate farming asset strippers.
As it was shown in detail it was suicide as the air patterns changes.
The point you brought up about the next thirty years war and the next cycle we are already in is the thirty year war
already underway. Why do Democrats support this?
We just mentioned waste management along the way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcFV8etE_Jg
http://gdxforum.com/forum/search.php?ke ... sf=msgonly

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... _per_adult

[Higgenbotham]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... _per_adult

Ratio of mean to median in the US is probably the highest in the world = largest inequality = center of Central Bank counterfeiting operations

Even the most corrupt third world dictatorships have a lower mean to median wealth.

[Higgenbotham]

The point you brought up about the next thirty years war and the next cycle we are already in is the thirty year war
already underway.

Probably. I'd be interested to read any details you would have on that.