Portugal

[Lobito]

This is my country and I expect serius economical problems in the nearby future.

The budget is about to be aproved, and in the end of last year from a deficit around 2,5% we were informed the the deficit is now 8,2%.
The taxes are getting low and the expences are still growning, so I would not be surprised to see a storm coming.

The goverment is unstable, I think it will end this year as the economical situation gets worst, at least the goverment seems to want to get out.

As the situation evolves I will post it here.

Sorry for my english.

Lobito

[John]

Welcome to the forum!

Portugal has been in the international finance news lately, because
of the danger of "sovereign debt default."

When the Dubai financial crisis bombshell occurred in November, many
people became aware of this problem. Then Greece became the focus of
attention.

Since then we hear a lot about the "P.I.I.G.S." -- Portugal, Ireland,
Italy, Greece and Spain -- as the eurozone countries most likely to
default on their sovereign debt.

Is this something that's of concern to the people of Portugal? Do
they talk about it? Or do they just avoid the subject, and hope that
the problem will go away by itself?

John

[Lobito]

That is the funny thing, except for a few, very few people, the rest those not seen the problem.
They simply believe in the news.

Just a simple exemple.

The stock market in Portugal as been decreasing since outober. In the first day the new told the people,
that the stock market as grown 30% or so, next day every people was talking about the news and not knowing
that the peek had hapen 3 moths befour.

So almost every one is blind, I try to talk and people call me a pessimist or they say I´m to young to know anything
about anything.

Except for a few ones, like Medina Carreira, the portuguese Presidente Cavaco Silva and recently also Mira Amaral,
every one tends to be blind or say we are in the right track.

Even the new year speatch by Cavaco as been ignored by a majority.

The Portuguese stock market:
dia = day
semana = week
mês = month
ano = year
http://noticias.sapo.pt/bolsa/

Cavaco Silva´s speatch in the new year, if you understand portuguese it´s interesting.
http://www.presidencia.pt/?idc=22&idi=34856

This is refering to the portuguese economy, said by Cavaco in that speatch.

Em nome da verdade, tenho a obrigação de alertar os Portugueses para a situação difícil em que o País se encontra e para os desafios que colectivamente enfrentamos.

Ao longo do último ano, o desemprego subiu acentuadamente, atingindo, no terceiro trimestre, 548 mil pessoas. Quase 20% dos jovens estavam desempregados.

A todos aqueles que, no último ano, perderam o seu emprego ou não conseguiram retomar uma actividade profissional, quero deixar uma palavra de conforto, mas também de esperança. Não percam a coragem.

Mas o desemprego não é o único motivo de preocupação.

A dívida do Estado tem vindo a crescer a ritmo acentuado e aproxima-se de um nível perigoso.

O endividamento do País ao estrangeiro tem vindo a aumentar de forma muito rápida, atingindo já níveis preocupantes.

Traducing via google

On behalf of the truth, I have an obligation to warn the Portuguese to the plight in which the country is and the challenges we collectively face.

Over the past year, unemployment rose sharply, reaching the third quarter, 548 thousand people. Almost 20% of young people were unemployed.

To all those who, last year, lost their jobs or failed to return to work, I leave a word of comfort, but also of hope. Do not lose courage.

But unemployment is not the only cause for concern.

The State debt has been growing at strong pace and is approaching a dangerous level.

The indebtedness of the country abroad has been increasing very rapidly, already reaching worrying levels.

[The Grey Badger]

Ser politico es ser mentiroso, Lobito!

[xakzen]

...
Over the past year, unemployment rose sharply, reaching the third quarter, 548 thousand people. Almost 20% of young people were unemployed.
...

Anyone know how this unemployment number is calculated in EU countries (if it is uniform across EU)? If it is like our U3, then the precentage of under-employment would be much higher. Up to double like in the US (U3 10%, U6 21%)?

For the first time yesterday I hear the BBC report that unemployment among the young was as high as 40% in Spain. If true this must be extremely destabilizing. Is Spain on the WWII or WWI Generational Time line, John?

[John]

> For the first time yesterday I hear the BBC report that
> unemployment among the young was as high as 40% in Spain. If true
> this must be extremely destabilizing. Is Spain on the WWII or WWI
> Generational Time line, John?

Spain is generally on the World War II timeline, although its crisis
war was the Spanish Civil War, 1936-39. Spain was in a Recovery Era
during WW II, and was officially neutral, though it supported
Germany.

John

[The Grey Badger]

Yes. "Pan's Labyrinth", made in Spain, made that quite clear.

[John]

-- Moody’s Says Greece, Portugal May Face ‘Slow Death’

> Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Portuguese and Greek economies may face
> a “slow death” as they dedicate a higher proportion of wealth to
> paying off debt and investors demand a premium to hold their
> bonds, Moody’s Investors Service said.

> While the two countries can still avoid such a scenario, their
> window of opportunity ”will not be open indefinitely,” Moody’s
> said in a report today from London. Portugal, with a negative
> outlook on its Aa2 rating, has more time “to reverse this trend”
> while Greece “has significantly less time.” Moody’s cut Greece’s
> rating to A2 from A1 on Dec. 22.

> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... Cc2s&pos=6

John

[Lobito]

More info on Portugal.

In here we aprove a plan to spend money during the year, every one those it, well the problem is that it will be probably presented at 23 of January.
This means that we are still using last year acounts, and working on last year scenerian, considering that we changed the document in October,
the situation isn´t that bad, the problem is the goverment is still working to make a new aeroport in Lisbon and a TGV.

Lobito

[Lobito]

The situation is evolving. The unemploiment rose to 10.4% in December.
The political responsibils are becoming nervouses, and promoting mettings to make the rating agencies more positive about my country.

So far the goverment is tring to reduce the defice by one 1%, the 3% imposed by Brussels aren´t going to be meet, so far only the political agents are saing something, that is we have nothing to concerne about, but I´m concerned. The stock market is falling since 10 January, and still going down, something is very wrong.

Still waiting for new developments.

Lobito