Financial topics

[aedens]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/162110- ... urce=email

[abs]

Steven Williams at CyclePro seems to have developed a very nice potential timeline linked to the fundamentals of the remaining bubbles in the mortgage market (residential and corporate). You can read about it here: http://www.geocities.com/cyclepro2/Charts/SP500/Outlook.htm . Very good analysis in my opinion.

Andrew

[reviresco]

“Samir wrote:Wall Street Pursues Profit in Bundles of Life Insurance
Not sure if this has been mentioned here yet, but apparently Wall Street is not done with their odd financial instruments. So clearly we have not learned the lessons that the previous generations learned. That is assuming investors are actually biting on these things”.

I’m growing weary of the monetization of death, not to mention its securitization.

Any beneficiary of a Credit Default Swap that doesn’t own the bonds that are insured has a vested interest in the death (bankruptcy) of the entity that issued the bonds. The sooner the better.

Any beneficiary of a Life Insurance Policy that is not related by blood or business to the insured has a vested interest in the death of that person. The sooner the better.

The worst example for me of the monetization of death is here http://www.bodyworlds.com/en.html
I apologize for the graphic nature of the pictures. People are skinned, shellacked and schlocked for all paying guests to see under the guise of anatomical education. Funeral Directors should have stood up long ago and challenged the various nationwide “anatomical boards” to call it what it is, desecration of the body, which I believe is illegal in all the states. If that isn’t desecration of the body, then I don’t know what is.

How about the financial reasoning behind abortion, and now by logical extension end of life “care” discussions. How can a people who insist it’s permissible to kill fetuses because they are not self sufficient contributing humans yet, then be alarmed when the same coldly logical rational reasoning leads inexorably to the conclusion that they too can be killed when they are not self sufficient contributing humans anymore?

Only coldly logical rational thought can override the conscience to the degree necessary to alter insurance products into abominations of profit, or life itself into a societal loss/benefit decision. Keep in mind that insurance companies know within definable percentages that most purchasers of insurance will not die during the coverage period, and when they do die the coverage will probably have lapsed. Without this carefully accumulated actuarial knowledge, they would all be broke within a generation. Now, with viatical SIV’s paying the premiums for sold policies, you can be assured that they will not have lapsed at the time of death, and so the actuaries numbers are wrong big time, which at a minimum will cause increased premium costs for all going forward, and most likely balance sheet distress for the insurance companies.

Lastly, I am deeply concerned about the estate tax going to zero during 2010, then jumping back up. If the financial carnage continues, how many older folks may decide that 2010 is the year to pack it in so their loved ones or beneficiaries will have the benefit of no taxation of whatever they can salvage? Be sure to keep in contact with those you love and care for, and let them know they have a value to you and society way beyond their net worth (or net cost), no matter what the “experts” have to say.

[jwfid]

No change in as reported p/e ratio for the last quarter.
http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000/026c.pdf

Joe

[aedens]

Cold water review to debt of the Consumer's ship still very much over the water mark.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/ ... /z1r-2.pdf
D.2 Borrowing by Sector
Billions of dollars; quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted annual rates


@ http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/ ... efault.htm


And the Consumer in 10 years ? No imagination needed with Fedzilla
here. Up and away.....

fredgraph.png (15.26 KiB) Viewed 1284 times

National Bureau of Statistics of China
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statist ... 587805.htm

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/ ... e1_sup.htm

http://tse.export.gov/NTDChartDisplay.a ... 20-1-35-37

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/ ... t/ipg2.gif

http://ita.doc.gov/td/industry/otea/ttp ... rtners.pdf

http://tse.export.gov/NTDChartDisplay.a ... 20-1-32-29
=========================================================================================
U.S. Authorities Probing $100 Billion of Bonds Seized in Italy
Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Secret Service is examining more than $100 billion of U.S. government bonds confiscated in northern Italy in August, just two months after $134 billion of allegedly fake securities were seized in a nearby town.
=========================================================================================
Eamon Javers Eamon Javers – Thu Apr 9, 2009 5:18 am
But instead of military brass plotting America’s defense, it was hedge-fund managers, professors and executives from at least one investment bank, UBS – all invited by the Pentagon to play out global scenarios that could shift the balance of power between the world’s leading economies.
A spokesperson for the Applied Physics Laboratory confirmed the event, and said it was the first purely economic war game the facility has hosted. All three participants said they had been told it was the first time the Pentagon hosted a purely economic war game.
Several participants said the event had been in the planning stages well before the stock market crash of September, but the real-world market calamity was on the minds of many in the room.
aedens » Wed Dec 31, 2008 1:06 pm viewtopic.php?f=5&t=27&p=1922&hilit=aedens#p1920
from the first day that you set your mind to gain understanding and to humble yourself before God, your words have been heard.

[John]

-- Just who is buying this rally?

Last week I posted an article on the dangerous state of the stock
market:

** Stock market goes dangerously parabolic, as day traders bid prices up
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?xct=gd.e090917#e090917

I blamed the rally on day traders competing to bid stock prices up,
based on a WSJ article.

I quoted Dave Rosenberg in that article as saying that the
unemployment situation was much worse than people are saying.

Dave Rosenberg has now given a new analysis on the question of who is
pushing stock prices up:

• It’s not private clients - stock funds registered net outflows of
  $1.33bn last week.
  http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssTech ... 2520090916
  
• It’s not corporate insiders - heck they’re selling like crazy.
  http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/05 ... his-rally/
  
• It’s not buybacks - S&P reported they were down to the lowest
  level since 1998.
  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... 8LYtrK09Ek
  

• Very likely it is still a combination of program trading, short
  coverings and portfolio managers desperately trying to make up for
  last year’s epic losses. ...
  
  While it is now considered to be in very bad taste to say anything
  negative about an equity market that is seemingly on a one-way ticket
  north, by the time the S&P 500 was up 60% in the last cycle, claims
  had already fallen to 300k. And, in the cycle prior to that, claims
  had drifted down to 350k by the time the market had rallied 60%. The
  market is so overextended that it is now 20% above its 200-day moving
  average, which is a technical condition that has not occurred in 27
  years.

  
  http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/09 ... his-rally/

Last week on CNBC, Art Cashin also blamed portfolio managers. He
said that he's going to be watching what happens three days before
the end of September (which I guess would be Friday, Sept 25 or
Monday, Sept 28). He said that portfolio managers would want to get
out at that point, in order to secure their third quarter profits.

John

[richard5za]

Dangerously over bought bear market rally

I don't know who is buying, and I actually don't care - what I do know is that on my technical analysis, is that the "inmates" in the "asylum" are soon going to start panicking and dumping general equities. This is a very, very over bought bear market rally. This is really dangerous stuff !!!!

If you own general equities sell now. In time you'll look back and you won't be sorry.

I don't own general equities. I only speculate gold bullion and gold mining shares, but I need to track and interpret the Dow (DJIA) for interpretation on gold.

My wish is good luck to eveyone who reads this site.
Regards
Richard

[aedens]

Dangerously over bought bear market rally

I don't know who is buying, and I actually don't care - what I do know is that on my technical analysis, is that the "inmates" in the "asylum" are soon going to start panicking and dumping general equities. This is a very, very over bought bear market rally. This is really dangerous stuff !!!!

If you own general equities sell now. In time you'll look back and you won't be sorry.

I don't own general equities. I only speculate gold bullion and gold mining shares, but I need to track and interpret the Dow (DJIA) for interpretation on gold.

My wish is good luck to eveyone who reads this site.
Regards
Richard

http://www.lbma.org.uk/stats
http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/
http://72.29.92.145/commandments.phtml

The same can be conveyed on the Gold market. Semantics, another medium of exchange in a investment risk reward assesment.
Both are over priced many feel. Even kitco mentioned this aspect. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsN ... 922?rpc=44
As long as the global economy is transmitting mixed signals, gold stands to benefit.
No one will disagree with it being a investment. Will it return to $770.00 and the Dow to 7700 or lower? Why not since both are subject to the
markets wishes. http://www.finviz.com/

Caveat Emptor http://www.finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx

Perf YTD 65.43%

[richard5za]

Predicting the medium term gold price is very difficult

In response to aedens Sep 23, I simply don’t have the skills to predict the medium term gold price.

What I can tell you is that the long term bull market for gold, going back to around 2001, is still intact, but that may not be the case next month, or the month after. I have done very well riding the gold bull with short term buy/sell trades. For instance I have done 16 buy/sell trades so far this month, 15 made money and 1 lost on a stop loss. Right now I’m un-invested waiting to see what happens next

If gold moves from bull to bear, I will instantly stop all gold speculation, because one of my rules is never to short – only long

The underlying economic fundamentals are deflationary, so gold will probably drop a lot in due course. But in the interim it might also go to $ 3 000 under other scenarios. This is not a prediction, simply a possibility.

Speculating is hard work. And investing is more interesting, looking for stocks with exceptional economic value. So after the generational crash market sanity will be restored (hopefully) and I want to go back to investing and buy into first class stock at P/E ratios hopefully as low as 6 i.e. at bargain basement prices.

Richard

[aedens]

I agree, the market is a technical trade only funded by moral hazzard on the Obama put. They will flat run over the Fed " Taxpayer Funded" until they stamp this Bull Technical trade situation out since we all know the fundamentals where murdered a long time ago.
With employment being crushed and the fed has now redefined the current moral hazzard in banking. In the United States there is no capitalization project really to mention. All this treasury bullshit on reform is just that, as American taxpayer fund's this, it drags the consumer's to survival only mode. There will be no consumer recovery to manufacturing. There will be no reform. There will be no change as the voter initially and correctly identified before this massive injustice continues to run its course as this bailout mania dimmed all hope to the working people of this nation. The banks have over 800 billion dollars that they will not lend until 2012 since the treasury will use it as a carry to per se mop up liquidity. So for 2 more years the economy will be leveraged away from its own people as bread and circus in this induced stupor they caused and any rational taxpayer knows this. My stops are set as America dies before our eyes.
They eat there own in a polital economy and the Senate has no backbone to any fiscal sanity and essentially reckless.
They voted these cannibals in and they could care less since debt mining is a industry that served them well. We will punish the serf for not taking our Government socialism. A few more years will break them for sure to will of there new masters.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/mmls.nr0.htm
====================================================================================
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/ ... rnanke.pdf
The problem is that this strategy encouraged another kind of financial run.

But the big issue is going to be now, I think, to look forward and create the economic, political, and social conditions under which that innovation can be an engine of growth to replace the consumer,something which folks in this town have not yet begun to focus on.

===================================================================================
Mon Sep 14, 2009 8:21 pm
aedens wrote:
It will and I stick with my October best guess true earnings technical break down and tearup's.