Timon wrote:> Hi, John. I am Chinese and visit your blog by a chance months ago.
> The generational theory is so great which opened a whole new
> window for me to understand this world, history and future. Since
> then I visit your weblog everyday.
Timon wrote:> On Thursday, the Fed successfully "saved" the almost-collapse
> Morgan Stanley by curbing the short-selling. On this weekend, a
> 700 billion bailout plan will be passed. By doing this, a market
> crash can by postponed for weeks. But in my opinion, a much
> unanticipated meltdown will occur while everyone still celebrate
> the Treasury rescue plan.
> And one question for you, John. How do you decide the probability
> of an event. Is it your guess or by using some mathematical
Golden Fox wrote:> A month ago I was discussing the economic situation with my Mom.
> I told her that I believe we are heading into another great
> depression and she denied that any such depression could ever
> occur, taking a more optimistic view that we will get nothing
> worse then an average recession like many others America has had.
> I never could have expected the collapse of so much big business
> in just a few weeks, Lehman, Merrill, AIG, Fanny Mae, Freddie Mac.
> It seems I was right and it's definately close now....
The Grey Badger wrote:Urban masses leaving for the hinterland - and fortifying their holdings - only happened once in my knowledge of world history. During the long, slow crash of the Roman Empire. I doubt we're there yet. However, there has been a trickle of back-to-the-landers and off-gridders which actually started with Robert Heinlein's very post-seasonal 1946 advice to turn survivalist; the Russians were going to prolong the 4T past recognition. Never happened. (Could have wasted 60 years doing so.) Followed by Idealists doing it a la Thoreau, with a 90%+ failure rate due to trying to live communally etc. Check out a documentary - and an article in the weekly Alibi - about "the Mesa People." There will always be some. But as a mass movement? Not unless things go so very badly sour we're in a civilization-ending moment. Which I seriously doubt we are.
(Actually, IMO, Western Civilization - at least Part 1- was one of the casualties of the Western Front. We're in its successor civilization now. However - the Hellenistic cultures thought of themselves as Greek, and Byzantium thought of itself as Roman. But I digress. I always do.)
John wrote:I've been dealing for a long time with people who simply say that
nothing like the 1930s Great Depression could ever happen again,
because of all the institutions that were put into place to prevent
it. They used to say that I was completely crazy - at least they
don't do that any more.
I like to point out that those institutions already failed long ago.
The SEC was specifically formed to prevent a new 1920s-type bubble,
but of course the SEC already completely failed at that, as can be
seen from the 1990s bubble. All the regulations that were put into
place in the 1930 were ignored or repealed by people like your mother
who believe that nothing bad can ever happen again.
John J. Xenakis
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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