freddyv wrote:http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS341 issues (76.15% mkt val) rptd: initial good reports fading, actuals are 2% behind of estimates, and -36.1% behind last year...
Sales down 12.8 with 89 beating last year and 246 falling short
As Rpt EPS for 12 Mo Sep,'09 estimated to be negative ($-1.83 EPS) - first time in index history
This confirms what I had been noticing as earnings were being reported; revenues were down by massive amounts (typically 20%) as were earnings but the fact that analysts had finally gotten the earnings estimates close was being used as good news by the pollyannas.
This is a(nother) tought time to remain bearish as some LEI's seem to be suggesting we are coming out of the recession but there is simply no way that we are through the tough times given that housing has yet to bottom, the consumer is far from delevaeraged, the banks are far from deleveraged, our government is in debt up to its corrupt eardrums, and the stock market is still overpriced.
From my POV, however, I see this as one sure thing. The market is overbought and weakening, as we have seen before and all the wise old owls I listen to say that experience (along with Dow Theory) tells them that there is more correction to come from the stock market. The young, brash pollyanna's are excited and buy more and more each day, almost as if it were 2000 all over again. Yes, we are coming closer to a great buying opportunity on the long side (hopefully) but that is likely a ways off as new dark clouds begin to become visible on the horizon.
From Peer review to date this October earnings we will see absolute MAKE and Break even on a GeoCorporate.
Obamamites cannot bend the curves other than up. SDR are real on the Horizon to date, i.e Hard currency plays.
No trade policy. GeoCorporate to playing winners and losers to scenarios over time so CDS can unwind.
Social acrimony growing. I can just shake my head to the pain to come. Thank you for numbers gentleman posted.