Swine Flu Pandemic - Preparation

[John]

It appears that a deadly swine flu pandemic has spread from Mexico to
the United States.

The current news gives no reason to believe that this will have
anything like the potency of the avian flu (bird flu) epidemic that's
been feared for years.

> Deadly Flu From Swine Hits People in Mexico, California, Texas

> By Tom Randall

> April 24 (Bloomberg) -- The same new strain of deadly swine flu
> was confirmed in Mexico City, California and Texas, raising the
> threat of pandemic after it infected hundreds of people.

> At least 59 died and 854 were sickened with flu-like symptoms in
> the Mexico City region in the past month, according to the World
> Health Organization. Of 14 samples tested from Mexico, half
> matched the swine flu reported in eight people in California and
> Texas, the U.S. Centers of Disease Control and Prevention said
> today. ...

> “Our concern has grown since yesterday in light of what we’ve
> learned since then,” said Richard Besser, the acting director of
> the CDC, said during a conference call today with reporters. “This
> is something we’re worried about and taking very seriously. We are
> moving quickly, being very aggressive in our approach.”

> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

For those wishing to follow this pandemic on an hourly basis, the
best site I know of is Henry Niman's Recombinomics site:

http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html

Stay well, everyone.

Sincerely,

John

[John]

The incipient swine flu pandemic is raising concern because it's a
completely new strain of flu, and combines genes from other viruses.
It's called "swine flu" because it originated in pigs. It's unusual
for a flu virus to jump from one species to another, but that's what
happened here. However, officials are reassuring people that it's
still safe to have bacon with your eggs for breakfast.

Officials are reassured by the fact that the cases that have
developed in California and Texas have been relatively mild. This is
not surprising, since new virus forms often mutate to become milder
as they spread.

Still, the warning is that anything can happen. The particular
danger is what might happen when the new virus (low pathenogenic
H1N1) reaches Asia, where it will have a chance to recombine with
highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu (bird flu). The concern is that the
highly pathogenic virus will become able to spread easily from person
to person.

Hardest hit so far is Mexico City, which is a "megacity" with over 20
million people. Panic has been averted so far, but all large public
events have been canceled, schools are closed, and people are walking
around wearing surgical face masks.

Officials are trying to keep the virus from spreading around the
world, but that's probably impossible. They're using the phrase
"pandemic potential." By slowing its spread, it's hoped that the virus
will continue to become milder, even if it can't be stopped from
spreading.

Here's an ITN report on what's happening in Mexico City:



Sincerely,

John

[umoguy]

10 points for having bird flu at red 3 on your main page. Yet again your method works. I also want to point out that I have seen a decrease in traffic on this site due to this recent 6 week bull run. That is crazy. A month and a half of continuing bad news, but the market goes up 200 points and everything is A-OK and people have stopped educating themselves about the future. Oh well, all I can say John is that they'll be back. -Umoguy

[The Grey Badger]

I've been given to understand it's hitting young people the hardest. That's the pattern of 1918. John, I forwarded you a story from Mexico from the horse's mouth; translation on request. Not being sure whether you'd seen the news about the swine flu or not. One note: it combined swine flu, bird flu, and human flu, according to DNA analysis. Small farmers in Mexico tend to keep chickens, and if they can afford it, a few pigs as well. (as well as other animals not involved in the flu). Sometimes in close quarters, but not the the cold-Northern-European early period peasant extent of keeping the pig in the parlor.

[ainsleyclare]

Just got back to the modern world after a weekend camping trip, and this is what I find waiting for me!

Some thoughts:

1) I take this seriously. I called up my hubby and asked him to get masks, gloves, and a gallon of milk.

2) Some uninformed people are saying that since this new virus is recombinant (contains DNA from swine flu, human flu, and maybe another type of flu...bird?), that is "must be human-made". Don't buy into this. The flu virus has eight differant chromosomes (chunks of connected DNA) that actually recombine in nature very easily.

3) The most scary thing I've read about this flu is that is kills young, healhy adults (rather than the oldest and youngest extremes of the population). This suggests that it may provoke a "cytokine storm" in people with strong, healthy immune systems- just like the 1918 flu did.

4) Unlike 1918, we now have a good understanding of what causes disease and how to control it. We have public health professionals focused on this 24/7, and they can communicate with each other instantly even if they are located thousands of miles apart.

5) If you get sick, seek medical help right away. Our most effective medicines are best taken within 48 hours of symptom onset. Reports are that many of the mexican deaths occurred because people didn't seek medical care until they were very, very sick. We don't know yet how long it takes to get that sick, but reports are that the cases in the USA so far have been mild. Each person reacts differantly- if you are sick, seek help.

6) Don't panic- this is not a conspiracy, it is not an immigration issue, it is not political. That doesn't mean it couldn't have a profound impact if people panic. Be sensible and protect yourself and your family.

For myself, I'm going to send my child to school tomorrow, and keep a close ear to the ground.

[John]

> 10 points for having bird flu at red 3 on your main page. Yet
> again your method works. I also want to point out that I have seen
> a decrease in traffic on this site due to this recent 6 week bull
> run. That is crazy. A month and a half of continuing bad news, but
> the market goes up 200 points and everything is A-OK and people
> have stopped educating themselves about the future. Oh well, all I
> can say John is that they'll be back. -Umoguy

You're undoubtedly right. I saw traffic to the web site triple last
year during financial crises.

The market rally has pushed people into a state of desperate
hopefulness. They don't even want to think about what's going on,
let alone read about it on this web site, for fear of jinxing the
rally.

Sincerely,

John

[John]

Dear Pat,

> I've been given to understand it's hitting young people the
> hardest. That's the pattern of 1918. John, I forwarded you a story
> from Mexico from the horse's mouth; translation on request. Not
> being sure whether you'd seen the news about the swine flu or not.
> One note: it combined swine flu, bird flu, and human flu,
> according to DNA analysis. Small farmers in Mexico tend to keep
> chickens, and if they can afford it, a few pigs as well. (as well
> as other animals not involved in the flu). Sometimes in close
> quarters, but not the the cold-Northern-European early period
> peasant extent of keeping the pig in the parlor.

The story sounds interesting, but I haven't received it.

Sincerely,

John

[John]

Dear Ainsley,

> 2) Some uninformed people are saying that since this new virus is
> recombinant (contains DNA from swine flu, human flu, and maybe
> another type of flu...bird?), that is "must be human-made". Don't
> buy into this. The flu virus has eight differant chromosomes
> (chunks of connected DNA) that actually recombine in nature very
> easily.

I don't think even the Chinese could pull this off.

I think you once told me that you work for the CDC. Thanks for
posting the advice.

Sincerely,

John

[The Grey Badger]

Dear Pat,

> I've been given to understand it's hitting young people the
> hardest. That's the pattern of 1918. John, I forwarded you a story
> from Mexico from the horse's mouth; translation on request. Not
> being sure whether you'd seen the news about the swine flu or not.
> One note: it combined swine flu, bird flu, and human flu,
> according to DNA analysis. Small farmers in Mexico tend to keep
> chickens, and if they can afford it, a few pigs as well. (as well
> as other animals not involved in the flu). Sometimes in close
> quarters, but not the the cold-Northern-European early period
> peasant extent of keeping the pig in the parlor.

The story sounds interesting, but I haven't received it.

Sincerely,

John

That's interesting! What I sent was a link to your own email site. OUt of Mexico - in Spanish - I can translate if need be - but by now it's seriously out of date, so I guess the question is moot. Anyway, the same news is all over the local dailies, so it's even more moot. Sorry!

[Marshall Kane]

ainsleyclare,

Thanks for the info. It's nice to know that the Generational Dynamics Illuminati has members in high places to keep us up to date. Any other tips? Should we be walking around with surgical masks? Or is that a bit paranoid at this point?

I happened to be at my doctor's today, and he gave me an RX for Relenza, just in case.

Reading up on the 1918 pandemic is, oddly enough, somewhat comforting. It is said to have killed up to 25 million in its first 25 weeks, a toll likely due to limitations of technology and communication - not to mention a host of issues attributable to the post WWI chaos. And over all the morality rate was said to be at most about 5% world wide. Hopefully our technological/medical advantages will serve us well if worse comes to worse (unless there's a worst case scenario I'm missing).