Crisis lists, the complete collection

[Nathan G]

This is my current list of saeculums that I have collected. If this list is incomplete, let me know and I will add to it.
Note: Each entry is just the main event that typifies that crisis era. During each era, there may be any number of external/internal wars, genocides, economic disasters, plagues, natural disasters, etc., but generally they are considered causally related to the main event listed.

Before 200 BC:
Egypt:
Hyksos overthrown, 1530-1525 BC
Wars of Thutmosis III, 1456-1435 BC
Revolts and invasions by the Apiru, 1350-1345 BC
Wars of Ramses II, 1280-1260 BC
Invasion of the Sea People, 1208-1190 BC
Collapse of Egypt into the Third Intermediate Period, 1140-1130 BC
Rival dynasties of Upper and Lower Egypt, 1077-1070 BC
Sack of Gezer, 980-970 BC
Soshenq I (aka Shishak) reunites Egypt, 925 BC
Battle of Qarqar, 853 BC
uncertain crisis, c.770 BC
Invasion of Sennacherib, 714-705 BC
Battle of Megiddo, 612 BC
Cambyses Conquers Egypt, 526-525 BC

Greece:
Deucalion Flood, c.1480-1450 BC
Cadmus and the Dragon's Teeth, c.1360 BC
Seven Against Thebes, c.1280 BC
Trojan War, 1194-1184 BC
Greek Dark Age due to Sea People, c.1100 BC
[unknown crises during Dark Age, 1100-600 BC]
Tyrants overthrown, c.620-600 BC
Persian Wars, 499-480 BC
Peloponesian War, 431-404 BC
Conquest of Macedon, 342-337 BC

Mesopotamia:
Tiglath-Pileser reunites Assyria, c.770-740 BC
Coup of Eserhaddon, 701-680 BC
Fall of Nineveh, 610 BC
Babylon Captured by Cyrus, 539-537 BC

Persia:
Cyrus unites Persia, 562-559 BC
Greco-Persian War, 490-480 BC
Egyptian Revolt, 404 BC
Conquest of Alexander, 336-331 BC
Parthian Revolt, 250 BC

Israel:
Conquest of Canaan, 1455-1448 BC
War with Moabites, 1346-1328 BC
War with Midianites, 1255-1248 BC
War with Amonnites, 1192-1174 BC
Civil war between David and Saul, 1063-1059 BC
War between Israel and Judah, 979-954 BC
Coup of Jehu, 890-886 BC
War with Edom, c.830-825 BC
Destruction of Israel by Assyria, 740-722 BC
Capture of Manasseh by Assyrians, c.650 BC
Captivity of the Jews by Nebuchadnezzar, 592-584 BC

Between 200 BC and 1600 AD:
China:
Collapse of the Western Han, 40-20 BC
Revolt against the Dous, c.80-96 AD
Yellow Turban Rebellion, 184-204 AD
War of Eight Princes, 291-306 AD
Later Qin destroyed, 373-383 AD
Champa War, 446-450 AD
Ly Bon War, 536 AD
Invasion of Lam Ap, 605-606 AD
Turkic War, 657-659 AD
War against Nanchao, 751-770 AD

Persia:
Safavid Conquest, 1501-1524
Ottoman-Safavid War, 1578-1590

Arabia:
Year of the Elephants, 570 AD
Muslim Civil War, 656-668 AD
Abbasid Revolution, 742-750 AD
Anarchy of Saqqara, 868-881 AD

Egypt:
Fathimid Invasion, 969 AD
Syrian War, 1023
Seljuk War, 1079-1095
Saladin Reunifies Egypt, 1174-1185
Mamluk Revolt, 1250-1261
Black Death, 1347-1349
Tamerlane's Invasion, 1400-1401
Ottoman Conquest, 1512-1520

Israel:
Hasmonean Revolt, 170-167 BC
Invasion of Pompey, 68 BC
Messianic Revolts, 2-6 AD
Jewish-Roman War, 66-72 AD
Bar Khoktba Revolt, 135 AD
[rule by Rome and Caliphate, 200-1000 AD]
First Crusade, 1096-1101
Third Crusade, 1187-1191
Sixth Crusade, 1248-1254

Asia Minor:
Expulsion of the Ostrogoths, 527-531 AD
Sassanid War, 622-630 AD
Twenty Years' Anarchy, 695-715 AD
Byzantine-Arab War, 778-779 AD
First Rus-Byzantine War, 860-863 AD
Second Rus-Byzantine War, 920-941 AD
Destruction of Bulgaria, 996 AD-1014
Seljuk War, 1071-1081
Fourth Crusade, 1189-1204
Constantinople Retaken, 1259-1261
Palaiologos Civil War, 1341-1347
Ottoman Conquest, 1422-1453
Wars of Selim I, 1512-1520
Hapsburg War, 1593-1606

Rome:
Second Punic War, 218-201 BC
Third Punic War, 149-146 BC
Social Wars, 91-82 BC
Ptolemaic War, 37-30 BC
Year of Four Emperors, 61-70 AD
Parthian War, 113-117 AD
Severan Wars, 193-211 AD
War of the Tetrarchy, 324-337 AD
Sack of Rome by the Huns, 406-410 AD
Byzantine Invasion, 527-531 AD

Spain:
Muslim Conquest, 711-715 AD
Carolingian War, 777-801 AD
Revolts under Muhammad I, 852-861 AD
Wars of Al-Hakam II, 962-970 AD
Umayyads Collapse, 1027-1031
Almoravid Invasion, 1080-1086
Almohad Invasion, 1144-1150
Reconquest of Alfonso VIII, 1195-1212
Conquest of Gibraltar, 1312-1340
Spanish Inquisition, 1391-1420
Fall of Granada, 1479-1492
Anglo-Spanish War, 1560-1588

France:
Norman Conquest, 1064-1066
Wars of Louis VI, 1124-1135
Third Crusade, 1182-1204
Seventh Crusade, 1270-1285
Hundred Years War begins, 1338-1346
Hundred Years War redress, 1415-1430
Valois reunifies France, 1475-1480
French Wars of Religion, 1562-1572

Britain:
Norman Conquest, 1064-1066
Plantagenet Anarchy, 1135-1154
Revolt in Normandy, 1204-1215
Conquest of Wales, 1276-1284
Hundred Years War begins, 1338-1346
War of the Roses, 1455-1485
Anlgo-Spanish War, 1560-1588

Germany:
Peasant's revolt, 1540-1555

Russia:
Tartar-Russian War, 1360-1380
Novgorod Annexed, 1462-1485
Livonian War, 1557-1582

Mexico:
Unification of the Aztecs, c.1400-1420
Fall of Tenochtitlan, 1519-1521

After 1600:
America:
War of the Five Nations, c.1590
King Philip's War, 1675-1678
American Revolution, 1775-1782
American Civil War, 1861-1865
World War II, 1941-1945

Canada:
Seven Years War, 1755-1762
Independence Movement, 1859-1867
World War I, 1914-1919

Mexico:
Mexican Independence, 1810-1821
Mexican Revolution, 1910-1921

Cuba:
Ten Years War, 1868-1878
Cuban Revolution, 1956-1959

Haiti:
Haitian Revolution, 1791-1804
American Invasion, 1911-1934

Costa Rica:
Costa Rican Civil War, 1944-1948

El Salvador:
La Matanza Massacre, 1927-1932
Salvadoran Civil War, 1980-1992

Honduras:
American intervention, 1919-1924
Football War, 1969-1983

Guatemala:
Guatemalan Civil War, 1966-1983

Nicaragua:
Sandinista War, 1972-1990

Panama:
Colombian Revolution, 1811-1825
Thousand Days War, 1886-1902
La Violencia War, 1948-1958

Colombia:
Colombian Revolution, 1811-1825
Thousand Days' War, 1886-1902
La Violencia War, 1948-1958

Venezuela:
Colombian Revolution, 1811-1825
Thousand Days' War, 1886-1902
La Violencia War, 1948-1958

Ecuador:
Colombian Revolution, 1811-1825
Liberal Revolution, 1895-1911
Ecuador Junta, 1960-1972

Bolivia:
Colombian Revolution, 1811-1825
War of the Pacific, 1878-1884
Nationalist Movement, 1952-1980

Peru:
Peruvian Independence, 1812-1824
War of the Pacific, 1878-1884
Peruvian Junta, 1968-1985

Chile:
Chilean Revolution, 1810-1825
War of the Pacific, 1878-1884
Chilean Junta, 1973-1978

Brazil:
Brazilian Independence, 1821-1825
Collapse of the Brazilian Empire, 1889-1898
Brazilian Junta, 1964-1974

Argentina:
Argentinean Independence, 1810-1817
War of the Triple Alliance, 1864-1870
Dirty War, 1973-1983

Paraguay:
War of the Triple Alliance, 1864-1870
Chaco War, 1932-1935

Uruguay:
Uruguayan independence, 1811-1825
War of Triple Alliance, 1864-1870
Uruguay Junta, 1959-1980

Suriname:
Suriname Junta, 1980-1992

Spain:
Catalan Revolt, 1640-1659
War of Spanish Succession, 1701-1714
Napoleonic Wars, 1793-1814
First Republican War, 1868-1874
Spanish Civil War, 1936-1939

France:
Thirty Years War, 1635-1648
War of Spanish Succession, 1701-1714
French Revolution, 1789-1814
Franco-Prussian War, 1865-1870
World War II, 1938-1945

Britain:
English Civil War, 1638-1650
War of Spanish Succession, 1701-1714
Napoleonic Wars, 1793-1814
Franco-Prussian War, 1865-1870
World War II, 1938-1945

Ireland:
Irish Rebellion, 1793-1798
Potato Famine, 1845-1849
Irish Revolution, 1913-1924

Germany:
Thirty Years War, 1618-1648
War of Spanish Succession, 1701-1714
Napoleonic Wars, 1793-1814
Franco-Prussian War, 1865-1870
World War II, 1938-1945

Italy:
Unification of Italy, 1859-1870
World War II, 1929-1945

Austria:
Napoleonic Wars, 1792-1814
Austro-Prussian War, 1864-1866
World War II, 1929-1945

Poland:
January Uprising, 1863-1864
World War II, 1929-1945

Russia:
Peasant Rebellions, 1649-1670
Russo-Turkic War, 1762-1783
Crimean War, 1853-1856
Bolshevik Revolution, 1915-1928
Fall of the Soviet Union, 1993

Belarus:
Nationalist Revolution, 1917-1919

Estonia:
Baltic Independence, 1917-1920

Finland:
Baltic Independence, 1917-1918

Latvia:
Baltic Independence, 1917-1922

Lithuania:
Baltic Independence, 1917-1920

Bosnia:
World War I, 1912-1918
Bosnian War, 1992-1995

Croatia:
World War I, 1912-1918
Bosnian War, 1992-1995

Kosovo:
World War I, 1912-1918
Bosnian War, 1992-1995

Montenegro:
World War I, 1912-1918
Bosnian War, 1992-1995

Serbia:
World War I, 1912-1918
Bosnian War, 1992-1995

Slovenia:
World War I, 1912-1918
Bosnian War, 1992-1995

Greece:
Greek Revolt, 1821-1829
World War I, 1912-1921

Turkey:
War of the Holy League, 1683-1699
Russo-Turkic War, 1768-1774
Crimean War, 1853-1856
Collapse of the Ottomans, 1908-1922
Arabia:
Saudi unifies Arabia, 1745
Ottoman-Wahhabi War, 1800-1818
Arab Revolt, 1902-1925

Armenia:
Armenian Genocide, 1908-1917

Georgia:
Soviet Invasion, 1916-1924

Persia:
Mughal-Safavid War, 1648-1662
First Russo-Persian War, 1722-1736
Second Russo-Persian War, 1803-1808
Constitutional Revolution, 1906-1909
Iran-Iraq War, 1979-1989

Iraq:
Great Iraqi Revolution, 1908-1920
Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988

Oman:
Oman-Zanzibar War, 1784
Zanzibar Revolt, 1870-1871
Dhofar Rebellion, 1962-1975

Jordan:
Collapse of the Ottomans, 1908-1922

Lebanon:
Collapse of the Ottomans, 1908-1922
Lebanese Civil War, 1977-1982

Syria:
Collapse of the Ottomans, 1908-1922
Lebanese Civil War, 1977-1982

Israel:
Arab-Israeli War, 1947-1949

India:
Indian Strike, 1857-1858
Indian Partition, 1946-1947

Bangladesh:
Indian Strike, 1857-1858
Indian Partition, 1946-1947

Nepal:
Indian Strike, 1857-1858
Indian Partition, 1946-1947

Pakistan:
Indian Strike, 1857-1858
Indian Partition, 1946-1947

Kazakhstan:
Communist Revolution, 1916-1920

Tajikistan:
Soviet invasion, 1916-1920
Tajik Civil War, 1992-1997

Kyrgyzstan:
Soviet Invasion,1916-1924

Turkmenistan:
Soviet Invasion, 1916-1924

Uzbekistan:
Soviet invasion, 1916-1924

Afghanistan:
Soviet-Afghan War, 1978-1992

Mongolia:
Mongol Independence, 1911-1921

Northern China:
Qing Conquest, 1618-1646
Conquest of Tibet, 1700-1720
White Lotus Rebellion, 1796-1804
Taiping Rebellion, 1851-1864
Chinese Civil War, 1932-1949

Southern China:
War of Koxinga, 1662-1683
Ming Rebellion, 1786-1789
Taipeing Rebellion, 1851-1864
Chinese Civil War, 1932-1949

North Korea:
Grand Prince reforms, 1864-1873
World War II, 1937-1945

South Korea:
Grand Prince Reforms?, 1864-1873
World War II, 1937-1945

Japan:
Meji Restoration, 1852-1868
World War II, 1937-1945

Myanmar:
Myanmar Conflict begins, 1948-1958

Laos:
French invasion, 1885-1895
Laotian Civil War, 1965-1975

Vietnam:
French invasion, 1885-1895
Vietnam-American War, 1965-1975

Cambodia:
French invasion, 1885-1895
Khmer Rouge, 1965-1975

Thailand:
World War II, 1932-1945

Malaysia:
Klang War, 1861-1874
World War II, 1941-1945

Singapore:
World War II, 1942-1945

Philippines:
Sumuroi Revolt, 1649-1650
Battle of Manila, 1755-1762
Civil War?, 1820-1823
Philippine Revolution, 1896-1898
World War II, 1941-1945

Indonesia:
Java War, 1825-1830
Aceh War, 1883-1904
Indonesian Genocide, 1955-1966

Australia:
World War II, 1929-1945

New Zealand:
World War II, 1929-1945

Morocco:
Rif War, 1919-1926

Algeria:
French Invasion, 1866-1871
Algerian Revolution, 1954-1962

Tunisia:
Turko-Italian War, 1911-1912

Libya:
Turko-Italian War, 1911-1912

Egypt:
Wars of Muhammad Ali, 1786-1811
Urabi Revolt, 1870-1882
Arab-Israeli War, 1944-1953

Sudan:
Mahdist War, 1881-1889
Sudanese Civil War, 1983-2011

Mauritania:
Saharan War, 1976-1989

Chad:
Wars of Rabeh Zubayr, 1890-1900

Niger:
French invasion, 1890-1910

Mali:
Foshada Crisis, 1882-1898

Burkina Faso:
French invasion, 1894-1898

Ivory Coast:
Foshada Crisis, 1881-1883

Guinea:
Foshada Crisis, 1882-1898
Guinean Independence, 1963-1974

Ghana:
British Invasion, 1887-1902

Liberia:
Liberian Civil Wars, 1989-2003

Sierra Leone:
Sierra Leone Civil War, 1991-2002

Benin:
Baifran War, 1960-1972

North Nigeria:
Fulani Jihad, 1804-1808
French invasion, 1890-1910
Baifran War, 1966-1970

South Nigeria:
Yoruba Wars, 1817-1830
French invasion, 1890-1910
Baifran War, 1966-1970

Cameroon:
Fulani Jihad, 1800-1810
French invasion, 1870
Communist Revolt, 1955-1960

Angola:
Dutch Invasion, 1640-1656
Collapse of the Kongo, 1701-1709
Mbailundu War, 1774-1792
Portuguese Invasion, 1900-1910
Angolan Civil War, 1961-1989

Northern Congo:
Republican Civil War, 1997-1999

Southern Congo:
Belgian Conquest, 1885-1908
Second Congolese Civil War, 1995-2002

Botswana:
Zulu Mfcane, 1815-1835
Second Boer War, 1899-1902

South Africa:
Zulu Mfecane, 1815-1835
Second Boer War, 1899-1902
South African Apartheid, 1948-1960

Zimbabwe:
Zulu Mfecane, 1815-1825
Mtabeleland Wars, 1893-1897
Bush War, 1964-1979

Rwanda:
Rwandan Civil War, 1990-1994

Burundi:
British invasion, 1905-1914
Burundian Civil War, 1987-1993

Uganda:
British Invasion, 1886-1896
Bush War, 1966-1986

Tanzania:
British Invasion, 1886-1896
Bush War, 1966-1986

Kenya:
Mau Mau Uprising, 1952-1959

Somalia:
Dervish Revolt, 1900-1920
Somalian Civil War, 1974-1994

Eritrea:
Italian-Ethiopian War, 1889-1896
Eritrean Independence, 1961-1988

Ethiopia:
Italian-Ethiopian War, 1889-1896
Red Terror, 1974-1991

Mozambique:
Mozambican Civil War, 1964-1988

Madagascar:
French invasion, 1895-1896
Malagasy Uprising, 1947-1948

Saeculum Statistics
Total saeculums listed: 210

Saeculum lengths (years, from end to end):
20-40: 0 (0%): 1T
40-60: 29 (14%): 2T
60-80: 96 (46%): 3T
80-100: 55 (26%): 4T
100-120: 23 (11%): 5T
over 120: 7 (3%): ??

On the out-liars of this list, it seems that 14 (7%) were less than 55 years, and therefore seem to have broken into crisis while still in an Awakening. On the other extreme, it seems that 7 (3%) were more than 120 years, and therefore lasted more than five turnings.

Saeculum lengths (years, from end to end):
40-50: 4 (2%)
50-60: 25 (12%)
60-70: 43 (20%)
70-80: 53 (25%)
80-90: 33 (16%)
90-100: 22 (11%)
100-110: 19 (9%)
110-120: 4 (2%)
120-130: 5 (2%)
130-140: 2 (1%)

There are some saeculums I refer to as "unusually short", which occur when there is multiple saeculums in a row that last about 60 or 70 years, which is not enough time for all four turnings. There are 19 such saeculums in total on this list (or 9%). 4 occur between 50 and 60 years, 11 between 60 and 70, and 4 between 70 and 80.

The following observations are, of course, subject to reevaluation due to assumptions taken:

114 nations on this list have generational timelines that reach the modern day, which is about 46% of the total nations on Earth. Of these nations, 56 (or 49%) are in a crisis or verging on a crisis, unless some of them have already been threw a crisis not listed here. From the remaining nations, 19 are in a high period (17%), 27 in an awakening (24%), and 11 in an unraveling (10%).

Nations with identical generational timelines can probably be grouped together into larger cultural regions, hence why no one bothers to unpack individual timelines for the city-states of Greece. There are at least 63 such regions gleaned from this list alone. On the whole Earth, there are probably between 200-300 such regions.

[jmm1184]

Wow, this is an amazing collection of all of the crisis lists that are on the website - thank you for bringing them into one place!

I have several comments on most of the countries, but that would produce a lengthy post, so I'll post the highlights instead.

First, a note on the Roman Empire: one thing I've noticed in studying Roman history in particular and Ancient & Medieval history in general is that the GD principle of localization means that the Roman Empire may contain different timelines, e.g. Britain and Egypt are unlikely to have shared a generational timeline, but at the same time the Roman Empire was similar to today's globalization, so its not impossible that they shared crises and thus timelines. One thing in particular that struck me was a large amount of time between the Severan Civil Wars and the Tetrarchy civil wars (211-324). For one thing, the wars of the tetrarchy ended in 324 rather than began, and there were several invasions of the roman empire by persians and germans from roughly 263-286, which I see as another crisis for the empire. Moreover, regions in the western empire and regions in the eastern empire may not have shared generational timelines. This is something I am currently exploring, but I am very short on time.

The same goes for China: especially during the Age of Division (220-618), South China and North China were completely different countries and often political fragmented; I am convinced that for most of Chinese history southern China and northern China have been on different generational timelines than they have been synchronized, and there are probably more regional timelines that those two. I don't know sure because I havent had the time to look at each of the different wars - my north vs. south china timelines for the qing dynasty are the closest I've come, and I'm truly flattered that you included them in your list.

Regarding Egypt, I noticed there was a gap between the Ottoman Conquest (1512-1520), and the rise of Muhammad Ali (1786-1811). I did some brief research on Ottoman Egypt last year, and found two candidates for crisis wars in this gap.

1609-1610: Army vs. Pasha civil war
1711-1714: Chroniclers refer to "The Great Sedition" or "The Revolution." Apparently it was a religious conflict sparked by controversy on praying to Sufi saints.

Regarding your identification of crisis wars for Argentina, Chile and Peru, I slightly disagree with some of your identifications for crisis wars. I wrote a somewhat lengthy post on these countries in a recent thread in the generational theory section. Check it out and let me know what you think!

Regarding the England timeline, I have an addition to the medieval crisis war list, and a slight change for the modern crisis war list.

1337-1356: The Beginning of the Hundred Years War. You have this in your list, but the climax year is 1346, which would be the battle of Crecy, but from my research I think a better candidate is the battle of Poitiers (1356).
1400-1415: Welsh Revolt and Invasion of France (climaxing in the Battle of Agincourt).

Instead of the 1865-1871 Franco-Prussian War being the crisis war for Victorian England, a better candidate is a combination of at least four wars:

1857-1865: The Indian Mutiny & British reprisals (see my recent post in international events - freaky stuff!), Second Opium War, the American Civil War and the Maori Wars in New Zealand.

Also, I noticed that you listed WWI as a crisis war for Canada but not for Australia and New Zealand - what are you reasons for having WWI as a crisis war for Canada? You also have the Seven Years War as a crisis war for Canada, but in my research I suspect that the American Revolution may actually have been a crisis war (at least for the Canadian English). What are your reasons for listing the Seven Years War as a crisis for Canada?

Finally, one fun addition to the North American list. Being from The South I've been looking into Southern USA crisis wars, and have this list for the southern Appalachians (E TN, W NC, SW VA)

The Cherokee:
1710-1717: Shawnee & Yamassee Wars
1776-1794: War of American Independence & The Chickamauga Wars
1838-1839: The Trail of Tears - most were forced to migrate to Oklahoma, but a few fled to the mountains of North Carolina

The Lower Carolinas/SE USA
1702-1717: War of the Spanish Succession & The Yamassee-Tuscarora War (This war nearly destroyed the South Carolina colony, involved Indian tribes fighting each other as well as the whites, saw traders throughout the SE USA killed, and killed 7% of South Carolina's population, making this war even bloodier than King Philips War).
1775-1781: The American War of Independence
1861-1865: The American Civil War
1941-1945: WWII

Overall this is amazing research and a great starting point for identifying historical cycles throughout history! If you'd like to work together to identify historical cycles please pm me.

[Nathan G]

Wow, this is an amazing collection of all of the crisis lists that are on the website - thank you for bringing them into one place!

You're Welcome .

First, a note on the Roman Empire: one thing I've noticed in studying Roman history in particular and Ancient & Medieval history in general is that the GD principle of localization means that the Roman Empire may contain different timelines, e.g. Britain and Egypt are unlikely to have shared a generational timeline, but at the same time the Roman Empire was similar to today's globalization, so its not impossible that they shared crises and thus timelines.

The same goes for China: especially during the Age of Division (220-618), South China and North China were completely different countries and often political fragmented; I am convinced that for most of Chinese history southern China and northern China have been on different generational timelines than they have been synchronized, and there are probably more regional timelines that those two. I don't know sure because I havent had the time to look at each of the different wars - my north vs. south china timelines for the qing dynasty are the closest I've come, and I'm truly flattered that you included them in your list.

Here I should explain my interpretation of the Principle of Localization. Yes, it is true that Europe, China, America, and a number of other places can be subdivided into cultural regions that each bear an individual generational timeline (at least 63 regions from this list, with a possible total of 200-300 in the world). However, when one nation conquers another, the conquerors tend to force a cultural unity that slowly, over about 200 years, causes the regions to synchronize. So my rule of thumb is this: within 200 years of conquest, the regions are unsynchronized, with crisis eras manifesting as revolts. By the 200 year mark, the regions within the empire are synchronized. Thus, if a nation regains its independence within 200 years, it will remain unsynchronized. So Egypt under the Ptolemies was on the same timeline as the Pharaonic period because the Achaemenids never held it for more than 200 years. The Romans, however, held Egypt long enough for their timelines to synchronize around the late 2nd century AD.
So to answer your question, there should be individual timelines for regions within Rome and China during this time, and I would welcome suggestions to fill them in, as long as you understand how regions can be synchronized over time.

Finally, one fun addition to the North American list. Being from The South I've been looking into Southern USA crisis wars, and have this list for the southern Appalachians (E TN, W NC, SW VA)

This is, again, an issue of subdividing a large empire into smaller cultural regions. Out of the silence of Xenakis, I have my own theory of these regions; however, as it is not thoroughly researched, I did not post it:
SE America:
1676: Bacon's Rebellion, a slave uprising which redefined the way of life in the American South
1783-1795: The Cherokee Wars, in which the South doubled its territory by expanding into the Appalachians
1865-1877: Reconstruction Era, in which the South is invaded by the north, followed by a number of insurrections, revolts, and terrorist acts
1941-1945: WWII, after the South finally synchronizes with the north after being unified for about 170 years

West coast America:
1765-1769: Spanish Conquest of the region
1846-1848: Mexican-American War in which America invades and conquers the region
c.1890-1910: The "Wild West", in which western America suffers from lawlessness and anarchy
c.1970-1980: Several outbreaks of homicides and riots in reaction to the end of segregation
Due to the west being ruled by America for less than 200 years, it is still unsynchronized and currently in an Awakening Era, explaining why California is more philosophical than the east.

That being said, I'm probably much more likely to trust the thoroughness of your research than mine. But let me know what you think first.

Also, I noticed that you listed WWI as a crisis war for Canada but not for Australia and New Zealand - what are you reasons for having WWI as a crisis war for Canada? You also have the Seven Years War as a crisis war for Canada, but in my research I suspect that the American Revolution may actually have been a crisis war (at least for the Canadian English). What are your reasons for listing the Seven Years War as a crisis for Canada?

At this point, it must be said that generational timelines for extreme northern latitudes are extremely hard to come across. Can you imagine coming up with a generational timeline for Alaska? Greenland? Siberia? It seems like literally nothing happens up there as the old stereotype says. I believe it's a mathematical law that the severity of a crisis is directly proportional to population density. The higher the population density, the more noticable the crisis, and vice versa. So in places like Canada, of very low population density, what little skirmish that constitutes a crisis would seem like a daily occurrence in other parts of the world.

In general, I believe that Canada was one generation behind America during our mutual histories. The reason Canada did not join the American Revolution was for that very reason, as this article neatly explains, Canada had just come out of a major conflict in the Seven Years war that ended with reconciliation with Britain. Canada's push for independence started long before the American Civil War broke out. The World Wars seemed like a toss-up, but from my personal experience it seems that Canada is much more proud of its involvement in World War I than II, which may suggest the generations were better set up for the first war than the second. Conversely, Australia and New Zealand felt the crisis in World War II with Japan threatening to conquer the entire Pacific.

and there were several invasions of the roman empire by persians and germans from roughly 263-286, which I see as another crisis for the empire. Moreover, regions in the western empire and regions in the eastern empire may not have shared generational timelines. This is something I am currently exploring, but I am very short on time.

This series of conflicts, known as the "Crisis of the Third Century", has less to do with GD and more to do with the general decline of a nation-state as a whole, in this case leading to the collapse of the Principate and founding of the Dominate. If you are interested, I recommend you read the books of Peter Turchin on Historical Dynamics and Secular Cycles. Also, I've written elsewhere on this site how Turchin's Secular Cycles can be merged with GD.

One thing in particular that struck me was a large amount of time between the Severan Civil Wars and the Tetrarchy civil wars (211-324). For one thing, the wars of the tetrarchy ended in 324 rather than began,

Regarding Egypt, I noticed there was a gap between the Ottoman Conquest (1512-1520), and the rise of Muhammad Ali (1786-1811). I did some brief research on Ottoman Egypt last year, and found two candidates for crisis wars in this gap.

Regarding your identification of crisis wars for Argentina, Chile and Peru, I slightly disagree with some of your identifications for crisis wars. I wrote a somewhat lengthy post on these countries in a recent thread in the generational theory section. Check it out and let me know what you think!
Regarding the England timeline, I have an addition to the medieval crisis war list, and a slight change for the modern crisis war list.

Instead of the 1865-1871 Franco-Prussian War being the crisis war for Victorian England, a better candidate is a combination of at least four wars:

I agree with all of these, and thank you for sharing them. However, most of these lists posted were copied from posts by John Xenakis, not by me. So while I agree with all of your suggestions, I'm sure Xenakis also has a method to the madness that he would share with us if he comes down some time.

[John]

Dear Nathan,

I fully realize how much work this was, and it's a fantastic result.

Unfortunately, despite all the work, it just ends up being in a thread
in the forum, where it will be soon forgotten. This is very
frustrating.

Years ago, I undertook the "Country Studies" project, which is still
available as a link from the home page. However, it was just too much
of a burden for me to maintain it.

So what I'm thinking of trying is a wiki that anyone can add stuff to.
That way it has a much better chance of staying up to date.

In fact, I've already started playing around with a wiki, and it's
available now at

http://generationaldynamics.com/wiki

I've set up pointers to all the country pages, though all the pages
are currently empty.

What I plan to do is transfer all the existing material from the
existing Country Studies pages into the wiki.

Feel free to play around and experiment with it. But if you add
something, please keep a copy, as I may reinstall it, which would wipe
out all existing content.

Anyway, perhaps you and Justin could tell me what you think about the
idea, whether it's even worthwhile.

With regard to the existing list that you posted, I just have a couple
of comments.

In the case of Thailand, this was debated in the fourth turning forum.
I've read a lot of stuff about Thailand, and WW II as a crisis war
just doesn't make sense. Everything I've seen indicates that
Thailand's last crisis war was the Cambodian killing fields war of the
1970s.

With regard to saeculum lengths, it's really impossible to "break into
crisis" prior to 55 years or so except in extreme circumstances.

The seeming exception is the "first turning reset" situation, where a
country experiences a massive external invasion. But even in that
case, the invaded country does not exhibit crisis era behaviors, but
fights the war as a non-crisis war. However, if the invasion is so
bad that all the generational relationships are destroyed, then it
resets to a first turning after the war.

The other seeming exception is exemplified by the current Syrian civil
war, which began 29 years after the climas of the last crisis war. In
many ways, this looks with a crisis war, with genocide and millions of
refugees. But it all comes from Assad, the Russians and the Iranians.
The people are not exhibiting crisis era behavior.

It's this situation that's forced me to revise and develop much new
theory about civil wars, and I've been posting this in the weblog
recently in discussions of Burundi. Basically, Awakening era civil
wars come about because a leader from the preceding crisis war uses
genocidal patterns to stay in power. This is not a crisis war, but
these Awakening era civil wars appear to be an important special
category of war thst should be addressed in some way.

Thanks again for posting this list, and for doing this fantastic piece
of work.

John

[Nathan G]

John,

I think it's a fantastic idea! I've always dreamed of there being a wiki-style website for generational timelines.

However, I think that having an entry for each modern nation-state is impractical. By the Principle of Localization, it's more proper to refer to GD over cultural regions, which sometimes spans multiple nations (such as the Baltic states, former Yugoslavia, or Classical Greece), and sometimes make up only part of a larger empire (like China, Nigeria, or the United Kingdom).

Therefore, I think it would be better to organize the website based on cultural regions, with a main directory listing the cultural regions in a table format along with other useful information. If you like that idea, I can PM you what information I think should go into it.

Nathan

[John]

Well, there really has to be an entry for each country. If
you look at the Country Studies web site, you'll see that
each country contains links and other information from other
sites. I essentially imported all this information from all
these other sites, and so the Country Studies site had a lot
of valuable information even before any text was added.

However, there's absolutely no reason why we can't do both. That's
the great thing about a wiki. The countries are under a "countries"
folder in the wiki. But we could also have a "regions" folder, and
then have the country and region sections point to each other. Keep
in mind though that any country can be in more than one region, and
one region can contain portions of several countries, so it can get
complicated just deciding how you want to do it.

If you want to play around with it, you can add a regions section
yourself, just edit the start page and add the following kinds of
lines of text to the start page:

[[regions;cath|Region: Catholics]]\\
[[regions;prot|Region: Protestants]]\\
[[regions;sunni|Region: Sunni Muslims]]\\
[[regions;prot|Region: Shia Muslims]]\\

When the start page is displayed, those regions will show up as links.
You can click on a link and create the corresponding region page.

[gerald]

Nathan G a very impressive list, I am duly impressed.

Regarding you comment , and I think/assume John would agree with you that "natural disasters, etc., but generally they are considered causally related to the main event listed. " is true.

I would like to point out a posting of 1/1/16 on the thunderbolts site ( relating to the electric universe ) that might shed some light on causes for a few of the older crises and a portent of the future.

A few high lights from the post https://www.thunderbolts.info/wp/daily-tpod/

"Like most of the history of war, and indeed Mankind, it is written under the assumption that we largely control our destiny, even if by unworthy means! Dictators, greed, stupidity, religion, anger and all the spectrum of human frailty and folly are dragged in to explain the unfolding of historic events. This, as if human factors alone, can explain war, population movement and civilizational aggrandisement and decay!

“1300 AD event”, by geoscientist Professor Patrick Nunn and he marks it as the beginning of the “Little Ice Age”. This was the “Wolf Minimum”, the successor to the “Medieval Warm Period”.

In parallel, with this “1300 AD” geophysical event, the harsh world famine of 1339 AD unfolded. It lasted seven years and is known as “the famine before the plague.” But then the deadliest plague in human memory was unleashed and played its part in shaping the gruesome warlike episodes in human folly! This world plague, that roughly began around 1348 AD and reoccurred over forty years, is noted as the worst in human memory including the plagues of Thucydides’ around 450 B.C. and the Justinian plagues, around 500 AD that have already been covered in previous articles. It totally eclipsed these previous disasters in death tolls! Perhaps up to eighty percent of the world’s population perished!

Can we scientifically establish a connection between what we see as mere human follies and the relentless attack of bacteria and viruses, to cosmic events? Let us at least track an opening to deeper understanding of the connections!

In fact do cosmic rays affect bacterial virulence? It is now understood that positive ions (e.g. cosmic rays) do encourage bacterial virulence!

So how do we conclude this appraisal of the “1300 AD event”? The anecdotal evidence clearly opts for cosmic interference with the Earth causing floods, plague, chaotic cold eras, famine, drought and significantly, collective madness (war). But this scenario is scientifically backed by Nunn and his myriad of analytical measurement sources regarding the Pacific basin, South America and elsewhere."
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from another source regarding solar activity
http://www.pages-igbp.org/download/docs ... 1(5-6).pdf --- regarding solar activity for the last 1200 years

. A part of the Holocene TSI reconstruction is shown for the past 1200 years in Figure 1a. Five distinct grand solar minima can be identified known as the Oort (1040-1080 AD), Wolf (1280-1350 AD), Spörer (1460-1550 AD), Maunder (1645-1715 AD), and Dalton (1790-1820 AD) Minima. The last four grand solar minima: Wolf, Spörer, Maunder and Dalton, occurred in a cluster. This cluster coincides with the Little Ice Age (LIA), a period of cold climate conditions from about 1350 to 1850 AD. Between the Oort and the Wolf Minimum a period of high solar activity of approximately 200 years is evident. This period coincides with the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), which is generally characterized by warmer and drier climate conditions.

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I think outside events such as the above can have profound effects on how people and societies act and this can change the "normal" flow of generations. It might make for an interesting study on crises vs. major natural events.
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By the way, we appear to be entering a new minimum https://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/

cheers

[Nathan G]

Gerald,

That's definitely true about the 1300 event and the "Little Ice Age". I've spoken on the Climate Change thread that there is a 1000-1200 year cycle between global warming and cooling. Of course, as the 80-year generational cycle and 300-year secular cycle all put western Europe at a crisis period at 1300 AD, that really compounded the event!

Now, as to the relationship between the events, it's not really as mysterious as you might think. When there is a famine (either by an Ice Age, or by mass consumption during a political crisis), people fight more fiercely over resources, leading to more massive conflicts that threatens the government.
At the same time, famine causes more malnutritioned people to wander as beggars between cities, spreading disease much faster.

So climate can easily cause wars and plagues, and if not for vaccinations would still do so today.

[gerald]

Gerald,

That's definitely true about the 1300 event and the "Little Ice Age". I've spoken on the Climate Change thread that there is a 1000-1200 year cycle between global warming and cooling. Of course, as the 80-year generational cycle and 300-year secular cycle all put western Europe at a crisis period at 1300 AD, that really compounded the event!

Now, as to the relationship between the events, it's not really as mysterious as you might think. When there is a famine (either by an Ice Age, or by mass consumption during a political crisis), people fight more fiercely over resources, leading to more massive conflicts that threatens the government.
At the same time, famine causes more malnutritioned people to wander as beggars between cities, spreading disease much faster.

So climate can easily cause wars and plagues, and if not for vaccinations would still do so today.

Of course, but the question is do these events change the "natural" generational cycles or do these events create a hard reset? I am inclined to believe they create a hard reset. --- If we have a cosmically created viral infection that is a deadly as the the 1300 one AND we can't develop vaccinations in time the singularity may not occur due to deaths among those developing the technology, on the other hand the created urgency may push for the singularity. hmmm

[John]

I've implemented a first version of the Country Studies Wiki.
I want to do a little more work before making it public.

http://generationaldynamics.com/wiki

This has turned out to be a bigger project than I had expected,
particularly in view of some nasty system problems that I had
to work around. I hope it turns out that it was worth the effort.

There are 250 country files. The wiki currently contains the
following information for each country:

• Map
• Existing history from old Country Studies site
• Nathan G's crisis war list
• Matt Ignal's crisis war list (updated)
• Various reference links for each country
• Various search engine links
• Country flag

I haven't implemented security levels, so anyone can edit it
any of the country pages.

However, since I'm probably going to replace all the country pages,
please keep a copy of anything you post. On the other hand, since I'm
going to replace all the country pages, you can screw around with the
country pages and not worry about messing things up.

If you think the format should be changed, now is the time to let me
know, before I make it public.