North Korea

[John]

North Korea's nuclear program has always been a matter of much
political and ideological bickering.

On the one hand, the West could make concessions to the North Koreans.
One side calls that "appeasement," the other side calls that
"negotiations."

On the other hand, the West could be threatening and confrontational
with the North Koreans. One side calls that "warlike" and
"imperialistic," while the other side calls that "tough love
negotiations."

I've always been of the opinion that it made absolutely no difference
whatsoever what the West did. North Korea has been entering a
generational Crisis era, and it was absolutely impossible that they
would give up their nuclear weapons development under any
circumstances.

Furthermore, it's always been pretty apparent that the North Koreans
were simply snookering the West, using threa

The developments of the last week appear to confirm that opinion. In
the article that I've posted, I related the nuclear development
programmers to a generational change in the succession, following the
rumors that Kim Jong-il has had a stroke.

** North Korea resumes nuclear weapon development amidst generational succession struggle
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?xct=gd.e080927#e080927

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/forum

[isaac]

I don't think North Korea wants to fight a war. I think they just want to be relevant somehow, and be able to keep the poplulation under control. With a starving population and nuclear weapons, mistakes could certainly be made that would result in war. Missing in North Korea is the fanatical ideology of the islamist that would make self sacrifice seem to make sense in the bigger sceme of things. I think they would rather negotiate for more freebies from wealthy countries so they can stay in power and live a cushy royal life.

[Matt1989]

I don't think North Korea wants to fight a war. I think they just want to be relevant somehow, and be able to keep the poplulation under control. With a starving population and nuclear weapons, mistakes could certainly be made that would result in war. Missing in North Korea is the fanatical ideology of the islamist that would make self sacrifice seem to make sense in the bigger sceme of things. I think they would rather negotiate for more freebies from wealthy countries so they can stay in power and live a cushy royal life.

It's hard to get a feel for what's going in North Korea due to the extreme repressive policies of the Kim regime, but they do seem to be lacking the urgency of many other 4T countries. Understand that in a crisis, the situation can change dramatically over a short period of time.

[axis_of_evil]

I think this quote is pretty relevant:

In appearance it is very powerful but in reality it is nothing to be afraid of; it is a paper tiger. Outwardly a tiger, it is made of paper, unable to withstand the wind and the rain.

[Barion]

So any takes on the so-called "failed" attempt to launch a satellite into orbit? Wasn't that their excuse in 1998, as well, with the exact same result of a launch over Japan with a splashdown in the Pacific?

[John]

> So any takes on the so-called "failed" attempt to launch a
> satellite into orbit? Wasn't that their excuse in 1998, as well,
> with the exact same result of a launch over Japan with a
> splashdown in the Pacific?

My theme of the day is that we're in a new era of "great
compromises." Obama asked Europe to send troops to Afghanistan, and
they compromised -- they'll send some troops for a couple of months
to do guard duty during the election.

North Korea's missile was launched with perfect timing -- just hours
before Obama's planned speech in Prague on nuclear proliferation.

It scared the pants off of people in Asia, especially in Japan, as
well as in Alaska.

And it also gave the North Koreans further credibility in selling
missiles and nuclear materials to other countries -- as it did with
Syria a couple of years ago.

But fear not, Obama announced his compromise solution in his Prague
speech. He called the missile launch "provocative," and vowed that he
will take the lead in convincing the world to become nuclear-free.

Kim Jong-il must be quaking in his boots.

Sincerely,

John

[Barion]

Kim Jong-il must be quaking in his boots.

Quaking so hard they mistook it for a second nuclear test...

No, wait...North Korea really did detonate a second nuclear device.

[isaac]

No worries. I'm sure President Obama will call for restraint from all parties and engage the North Korea's in meaningful and productive negotiation.

But wait,

Iran is sailing into international waters, and Israel is snubbing their political noses at the USA at the very same time as North Korea's test. Could there be a connection?

I'm sure President Obama will engage in dialog and invite parties with all points of view to participate in the discussion in order to get to the bottom of this.

[JWest]

No worries. I'm sure President Obama will call for restraint from all parties and engage the North Korea's in meaningful and productive negotiation.

But wait,

Iran is sailing into international waters, and Israel is snubbing their political noses at the USA at the very same time as North Korea's test. Could there be a connection?

I'm sure President Obama will engage in dialog and invite parties with all points of view to participate in the discussion in order to get to the bottom of this.

No problem. He'll send Hillary to Korea with another Reset Button. Maybe this time they'll actually get the lingo correct.

[Samir]

FACTBOX: Reaction to North Korea's nuclear test

Most of the countries seem to be acting to preserve the status quo. So we have not yet reached the tipping point, but on CNN they have already run some war scenarios. After All Seoul is not to far from the border.

North Korea Threatens to Attack South

North Korea vowed Wednesday to attack South Korea if ships from the North are searched as part a U.S.-led effort to stop vessels suspected of carrying missiles or weapons of mass destruction. It also declared that the truce that ended the Korean War in 1953 was no longer valid.

Seems like Kim Jong Il is taking advantage of every one's willingness to compromise, but such a threat could backfire.

On Wednesday, the government of Kim Jong Il went on a rhetorical counterattack. North Korea said it no longer could guarantee the safety of ships from South Korea and other countries sailing in the Yellow Sea off its western coast. It added that it would not honor a North-South border in that sea, which was drawn at the end of the Korean War.

The North also said it would not respect the legal status of five islands on the South's side of the line. Two naval clashes occurred in that area in 1999 and 2002, killing six sailors from South Korea and more than 30 from North Korea. In those skirmishes, North Korea was badly outgunned by the South's more modern weapons.

Should these be taken as idle treats? I can see the tension rising, but who is going to overreact and cause a crisis war? South Korea wants to "respond with cool-headedness" and seems all to willing to compromise (for now at least).