aedens wrote:Keep In context I am a Bull but we know that here. We must shift the observation to the socio economic calculation going forward.
OLD1953 wrote:Shipping is dead on the vine. It's as bad as it was during the first leg down. The second leg down is just about to get serious.
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_ ... _index.htm
The idea that we aren't going to be "saved" is beginning to become a popular meme.
I was looking over an old book of mine that was published in 1906. The author gave the banks and financial institutions pure hell. A bit of updating and it would be popular today.
Higgenbotham wrote:aedens wrote:Keep In context I am a Bull but we know that here. We must shift the observation to the socio economic calculation going forward.
Here's approximately what I think is happening. The 2008 stock market crash was a different sort of crash than what has been seen historically in the US because the real estate bubble got so large that its bursting spilled over to the rest of the economy. In other words, subprime was not contained when perhaps the reasonable historical expectation was that it would be. This I believe is why it took so many people by surprise, which is probably what has to happen for there to be a crash. The rebound out of the 2008 crash and 2009 low was also a different sort of rebound because the authorities used up all of the borrowing capacity of the US government to engineer that rebound. Now I believe July 2011 was sort of like September 1929. Once the US debt rating was downgraded, that triggered the August 2011 crash, which I think is most similar to October 1929. The rebound out of the August 2011 crash and October 2011 low lasted until April 2012. The rebound out of the October 1929 crash and November 1929 low lasted until April 1930. April 2012 was a higher high in the US, but April 1930 was not. However, in the rest of the world, April 2012 was a lower high. From the April 2012 high, the US stock market fell for 43 trading days, from April 2 to June 4. From the April 1930 high, the stock market fell for 47 trading days, from April 17 to June 25. From the June 1930 low, the stock market rebounded for 53 trading days before it began the steep descent to the July 1932 low, which was the worst part of the bear market. I believe we are entering that phase now. The fact the nobody believes that phase is being entered now is one important reason why it can happen, similar to how people believed subprime was contained and real estate prices would always go up. The belief now is QE to infinity will keep stock prices high.
aedens wrote:Higgenbotham wrote:From the June 1930 low, the stock market rebounded for 53 trading days before it began the steep descent to the July 1932 low, which was the worst part of the bear market.
The uber bulls are calling 1440, I do not know based on market fantasy on latency effect I warranted as the 17th.
Higgenbotham wrote: The belief now is QE to infinity will keep stock prices high.
John wrote:Not a chance.
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