A 4T Narrative (2009-2020?)

[Matt1989]

It's impossible to predict with precision how events will play out in 10 years, so much of this is going to be up to your imagination.

Structural, political, and societal changes can be executed instantaneously in a fourth turning. I'm looking for any theories on how these changes will develop, and what the world will look like when the dust has cleared and we push on into the recovery (1T). Look at trend lines, technological breakthroughs, types of warfare, economic consequences, etc.

Any takers?

[John]

It's impossible to predict with precision how events will play out in 10 years, so much of this is going to be up to your imagination.

Structural, political, and societal changes can be executed instantaneously in a fourth turning. I'm looking for any theories on how these changes will develop, and what the world will look like when the dust has cleared and we push on into the recovery (1T). Look at trend lines, technological breakthroughs, types of warfare, economic consequences, etc.

Any takers?

Dear Matt,

You should definitely ask Tom Mazanec about this. This is the kind
of thing he's done a lot of amazing work on. His web site is
http://tmazanec1.xepher.net .

John

[isaac]

I think one trend we may see is a consolidation of power in which governments begin to merge like large corporations. I think a North American Union is in the cards. There will be fewer currencies and more international regulation of trade. I think there will be a significant clash between islamics and non-islamics on a global scale. I think this will be the basis of WWIII. I think China will attempt to stay out of the fray, preferring to pick up the pieces when it is over. Socialism will be resurgent as automation makes unskilled labor less and less valuable, and more skilled workers are displaced as the pace of change accelerates. It will be necessary to maintain social programs for underskilled and displaced workers to prevent social unrest. Family structures will probably change. It seems that multifamily unions will likely be required to better accomodate disruptions in individual income streams, and to accomodate the need to raise children in a multi-income family. Two families with three workers or three families with 5 workers would be a more efficient basic unit.

[Matt1989]

I think one trend we may see is a consolidation of power in which governments begin to merge like large corporations. I think a North American Union is in the cards. There will be fewer currencies and more international regulation of trade. I think there will be a significant clash between islamics and non-islamics on a global scale. I think this will be the basis of WWIII. I think China will attempt to stay out of the fray, preferring to pick up the pieces when it is over. Socialism will be resurgent as automation makes unskilled labor less and less valuable, and more skilled workers are displaced as the pace of change accelerates. It will be necessary to maintain social programs for underskilled and displaced workers to prevent social unrest. Family structures will probably change. It seems that multifamily unions will likely be required to better accomodate disruptions in individual income streams, and to accomodate the need to raise children in a multi-income family. Two families with three workers or three families with 5 workers would be a more efficient basic unit.

The North American Union is a bizarre theory. Corporations merge out of recognized weaknesses, and so would nation-states. But for a Union to form, it would have to be toward the end of the 4T (certainly post-regeneracy) as a solution to the biggest problems posed by the Crisis. We're seeing nation-states becoming humiliated (what is our govt's approval rating again?) and forced into financial ruin precisely because they are so big. I see the opposite occurring; with this 4T the pendulum swings back toward decentralization. However, the only way this could occur would be through some sort of Revolution. Government's do not voluntary recede into the background.

Socialism (classical definition, not necessarily the modern one) will rise in the fourth turning as 3T-style individualism declines. America having multifamily unions? Unlikely. That would be truly un-American! You'll probably just witness communities working together.