Financial topics

[thomasglee]

It's why their neighbors are moving closer to our sphere. They may not like us, but they like the idea of a Chinese-dominated world even less. I wouldn't doubt, though, that even if they're ahead, we're launching probing attacks against them as well. Course, we'd never admit it and neither would they; it'd make them look weak. I've even written something on this scenario.

When looking at the situation with China from a GD POV, we need to be as scared of them as we were the Soviets (but understanding GD, we really never had to worry about the Soviets). China's new generation will not consider mutually assured destruction. As has been mentioned, they will focus on controlling Asia AND the sea routes throughout the region. Through such a method, theoretically, they will control the world's trade. Just as Hitler and Hirohito did not consider the ultimate outcomes of their actions, the Chinese are not thinking clearly about the outcomes of their current and future actions. As John has mentioned, it will likely be some slight insult or something similar that sets the Chinese off. Also, we forget that in the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Korea, etc., there are residents of those countries that are of Chinese origin, but that have never been to China and are 4th or 5 or more generation living in the aforementioned countries. However, they still consider themselves CHINESE first (as does many of the governments of those countries). Subversion will be a major issue. While it won't be pretty, I must admit, it will be interesting seeing how things play out.

[Trevor]

That's essentially what I said. They think they can beat us easily and don't understand what the consequences of their actions will cause. Makes me wonder if we'll try appeasement the first time they attack someone or if we'll feel like we have no choice but to defend them. What I meant was that even if neither side intends it, it could end up being MAD in the final stages of the war.

It'd also make an interesting fictional scenario. I have a book about this topic.

[thomasglee]

That's essentially what I said. They think they can beat us easily and don't understand what the consequences of their actions will cause. Makes me wonder if we'll try appeasement the first time they attack someone or if we'll feel like we have no choice but to defend them. What I meant was that even if neither side intends it, it could end up being MAD in the final stages of the war.

It'd also make an interesting fictional scenario. I have a book about this topic.

Yes, after posting I realized we're really just saying the same thing.

Have you published your book? Sounds like it could be an interesting read.

The way China has slowly been occupying north Korea over the last few years makes me think they'll start out seeking appeasement, but all the while continue to exert their "power" in the region. Much like the Nazi's did in Europe.

[Trevor]

What I'm noticing is that our population has little will for another war, but at the same time, we're becoming increasingly worried about China. It could go either way, but right now, my money would be on appeasement.

I've completed it, but it isn't published yet. I'm hoping to do so by the end of the year. Each of us have our own talents when it comes to warning people; this happens to be mine. Besides, I want to accomplish something before I get shipped to the front lines.

[thomasglee]

What I'm noticing is that our population has little will for another war, but at the same time, we're becoming increasingly worried about China. It could go either way, but right now, my money would be on appeasement.

I've completed it, but it isn't published yet. I'm hoping to do so by the end of the year. Each of us have our own talents when it comes to warning people; this happens to be mine. Besides, I want to accomplish something before I get shipped to the front lines.

We didn't have the will for war leading up to WWII either... but was increasingly worrying about Japan. Notice the similarities? It's eerie.

[Trevor]

I've noticed it as well. Not only that, but many are blowing off the threat that China poses to us. Hopefully, we won't be quite as blind as we were before. This is going to be a lot more difficult, though. Japan was never able to match our industry; China can. The only good thing is that if I manage to survive, I'll never have to go through it again.

[thomasglee]

I've noticed it as well. Not only that, but many are blowing off the threat that China poses to us. Hopefully, we won't be quite as blind as we were before. This is going to be a lot more difficult, though. Japan was never able to match our industry; China can. The only good thing is that if I manage to survive, I'll never have to go through it again.

You must still be fairly young. I'm 44 and served 8 years on active duty... So I'll get to sit this one out (but might decide not to, if I truly am able to contribute! lol).

Yes, too many poopoo the idea of China being a threat... much like they poopoo'd the idea of Japan being a threat. The Chinese are VERY nationalist and they've never managed to keep a central government for too long (100 years on average probably), so they will have to find an outside enemy in an effort to keep the masses committed to the central government. The Philippines looks like an easy target. In the Philippines (and in Korea), those of Chinese descent (even if born in Korea or the Philippines) are not allowed to possess a passport so most are issued passports by the Republic of China (Taiwan). In both countries, those of Chinese descent are not allowed to vote and they have many other restrictions placed upon them (no free education after elementary school, etc.). So I foresee China using such laws as an excuse to start something at some point. It's just a matter of "when".

[Trevor]

Another thing that could happen (and this is the scenario I use) is that the CCP could be overthrown in a civil war with a Hitler-like figure taking over the country and preparing to launch an attack against us and probably all their neighbors. It's how the French Revolution started.

Honestly, the Philippines would be pretty easy, at least if we didn't get involved. We'll see how things develop, but I don't see a full-scale war breaking out for a few years yet.

[OLD1953]

Many things are coming together at this time. There is much evidence that we are deep into the crisis, had "The Avengers" been produced in 1963, it would have been panned, not been the most profitable movie ever at initial release. The people want heroes riding in on the white horse to save them from clear and present danger. We can only hope the masses choose their heroes wisely, Mao, Stalin and Hitler were not wise choices, Roosevelt and Churchill were.

In our current politics, we have the choice of "I'll take your money and give it to the banks that are too big to fail" vs "I'll take your money and give it to the banks that are too big to fail". Both have promised to regret it afterwards. Not much of a choice IMHO. Several conservative congressmen have come out for reinstatement of Glass-Steagall, however talk is cheap, votes are where they get the threats of pulling all support from their campaigns. The reason we don't have publically funded campaigns is simply becasue the guys buying politicians want to keep on buying them. And they expect value for the money. I suppose US politics is actually free markets in action. Yes John, everything has become corrupt. I was reading last week of a lawyer who bilked a woman out of property worth three million, apparently he thought it was OK because she was old and would die before she found out. She lived longer than he expected. Listing all the swindles and frauds that pop up on a daily basis in the news would take forever.

I've noted this type of behavior becomes more common just before or during large social changes or business crashes.
http://lawrenceville-ga.patch.com/artic ... ashing-car
Curious, but I think the people are under a lot of stress, and whatever "last straw" happens to them causes them to act in strange and unsocial ways. At least taking your clothes off in public doesn't hurt anyone, it's certainly a better choice than suicide or arson. Streaking was common just as things were going to hell in the 70's, there were similar things that went on in the late 20's, etc.

Expect some action to prop up markets before Monday opening. I have no idea what the FED will pull out, unless they've decided it is time to push people towards the exits, they'll do something. OTOH, if markets were allowed to move in a natural fashion, we'd see a steady fall through the end of the year at least, ending up around 5000 or so and perhaps below. If they keep on propping things up, the overshoot is going to be terrible when it does crash, it would go much lower than 5000.

[aedens]

Expect some action to prop up markets before Monday opening. I have no idea what the FED will pull out, unless they've decided it is time to push people towards the exits, they'll do something. OTOH, if markets were allowed to move in a natural fashion, we'd see a steady fall through the end of the year at least, ending up around 5000 or so and perhaps below.

We have been there before with these educated moral hazzard people. We already captured in the forums the creators of these options as flawed from them as in Black Scholes and and it was disavowed as dangerous. By way of example from mid-1988 to early 1990 the Japanese stock market rose repeatedly to record high levels and we have seen that chart to how we are trending on context to that period. I am independant and none "damn few" of them in the universe are to be trusted so I will lose my own money all by myself with the cheerfull and useless idiots we are are suffering. viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&p=12001&hilit=inflation+targeting#p12001
We already know the rentier and repression mechanisms at play here with IT to claims adjudication of actors of observed conviction.
viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&p=12001&hilit=inflation+targeting#p12000 Higg was correct...