Trevor wrote:I mostly agree with you on that, but I would say that we're not exactly in the eye on the storm. The first storm was in 2008-2009 and it was one we barely survived. The second storm has yet to hit us and has not yet built its full strength. We don't see it at all and if we do, we consider it something minor. There are signs if you know what you're looking for.
This is from this morning's news of overnight developments. Again, the data points are mixed and it seems as if the old news that was already in the pipeline is holding things up whereas a new development is dragging things down. Therefore, while US stocks are down this morning a bit, we may see some rebound after the data releases. How much rebound may tell whether we are in the eye. My thought yesterday was that it may be a few weeks away but not months. This morning the eye looks closer.
"European stocks relinquished early gains and moved lower after Germany's Bundesbank said it won't accept bank bonds guaranteed by Ireland, Greece and Portugal as collateral. Moody's Investors Service said "this announcement marks a step towards divergent collateral rules and raises questions about policy cohesiveness among Euro-Zone central banks and this is credit negative for Euro-Zone sovereigns and banking systems overall, but particularly for those of Greece, Ireland and Portugal." European Stocks had initially rallied after China's Mar PMI manufacturing unexpectedly expanded by its fastest pace in a year, while Mar German PMI manufacturing was unexpectedly revised up to 48.4 from the originally reported 48.1. The British pound rallied to a 4-1/2 month high against the dollar after Mar U.K. PMI manufacturing unexpectedly increased +0.6 to 52.1, stronger than expectations of -0.5 to 50.7 and its fastest pace of growth in 11-months."