The Fourth Turning Civil War Started Today

[kochevnik]

Montana made firearms now exempt from all federal laws.

http://data.opi.mt.gov/bills/2009/billhtml/HB0246.htm

All firearms, short barrel shotguns, short barrel rifles, silencers, and firearms with a bore under 1.5" are deemed exempt from the NFA if they're made in MT.
And they're exempt from the 1968 GCA as well, which means no serial numbers and no NICS check either.

----------------------

We have seen a dozen or so states in the last few months pass token Sovereignity legislation - but this law, which was evidently signed into law in Montana by the Democratic Governor of that state yesterday, goes much further.

Here is how I see this progessing :

1) at first the feds ignore this law
2) then the feds go into MT and arrest someone as a trial run to see how the sate govt reacts
3) either the state backs down or the Feds do - this time
4) then they try again and this time the ATF brings their A-level enforcers and the state of MT sends their state police - this time someone, probably on both sides - gets killed
5) Fed govt sends the ATF in again - only this time with US Army troops backing them up
6) MT governor responds with Montana Natl Guard troops
7) Fed govt attempts to 'fire' the governor of MT - or somehow destroy his ability to control the Nat Guard
8) Governor/Legislature of MT decrees that they will no longer remit ANY tax monies to the Federal govt
9) Surrounding states of WY and ID plus supportive states like NV + TX - all step in to provide support (troops/money/supplies/political power) to the governor of MT
10) Now you essentially have a minor level civ war

How long this takes depends on how many times one side or the other backs downs or retreats. And this will spread to other Fed gov programs like NAIS - that farm thing and a lot of other Fed gov boondoggles.

Fourth Turning baby. This is the first step towards the 4T Crisis war IMO - right here, right now.

[John]

You have an extremely vivid imagination!

John

[kochevnik]

No I'd say it's pretty straight forward extrapolation - the 4T Crisis is coming on a schedule - and a person can ignore that thesis or ridicule it (or the messenger) but the FACT remains that the timing and nature of 911 was predicted and came true, Bush's re-election was predicted and came true, and the current economic crash as well as many of the follow on effects (people moving in with relatives and freeing up lots of rental housing, and a big movement towards frugality and a questioning of all forms of big institutions) have ALL taken place, right on schedule.

On an 80 year saeculum cycle the odds are VERY good we get a big war out of this, and every other war has been :

Rev War - 1780 external
Civ War 1860 - internal
WWII - 1940 - external
2020 war - internal ?

Personally I see the odds as 50-50 between a another Civ War or and external Resource War - but there is always the possibility of some combination of both.

In history many times people and 'leaders' set things into motion that they lose a great deal of control over. I cannot think of a more dangerous issue right now than the 2nd Amendment - especially in this incredibly polarized world of rightwing - leftwing borderline hatred going on right now. At the gunshop yesterday the sales of guns were running 60,000 a month in blue state Oregon.

And now - you can Alaska as passing the same bill - only with more teeth - than Montana just did.

http://www.legis.state.ak.us/PDF/26/Bills/HB0186C.PDF

As a former Alaskan I can tell you this will sail thru the rest of the process.

Laugh if you want - but this WILL get out of hand.

[The Grey Badger]

I sent the actual news story to a friend, who said "That will last until one firearm crosses the state line, about a day and a half." She foresaw lawsuits.

I sincerely do not see a state-wide Waco scenario. I do foresee a journey up the appellate ladder all the way to the Nine Robed Gods.

[fash]

http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/ar ... _texa.html

[kochevnik]

Guess it's not just me then -

http://www.financialsense.com/editorial ... /0421.html

The civil unrest is most likely to erupt among Hispanics and African Americans. The unemployment rate of Hispanics is 11.4% versus 5.0% in November 2007. It is doubtless far worse, as many Hispanics worked “under the table” in the housing industry. The unemployment rate of African Americans is 13.3%, the highest since 1993, and up from an all-time low of 7.0% in 2000. The urban areas of the United States are a powder keg, with automatic weapons available to anyone. Policemen are being slaughtered at a record pace. Mexico is on the verge of becoming a failed state. Drug lords are running the country. Its oil fields are in rapid decline and it will no longer be an exporter of oil within 5 years. The Mexican government depends on oil for 40% of its tax revenues. The collapse of Mexico’s government, extreme power of murderous drug lords, and worldwide depression will drive millions of poor towards the U.S. border. The anti-immigrant feelings in the U.S. continue to grow as more white Americans lose their jobs. This is an explosive combination that will eventually require military and National Guard intervention.

There are two other hot button issues which will increase the anxiety in this country. Guns and ammo are selling like hotcakes. The combination of apprehension that Obama and his Democratic majority will put restrictions on gun ownership and the severe economic downturn has led to an exorbitant increase in gun sales. Ruger has a $48 million backlog of guns on order. Many citizens in the Western states live by the motto: You can have my gun when you pry it from my cold, dead fingers. Any effort by the Obama administration to restrict gun ownership will be met with major resistance. The Tax Day Tea Parties revealed the other hot button issue for many Americans. When the Bush tax cuts expire in 2010 and Obama institutes his Cap & Trade energy tax, the economy will receive a double whammy. At that point the failed economic policies and higher taxes will lead to consternation and resentment throughout the land. The unending economic turmoil throughout the world will result in protests and anger in many countries. The more disturbing issue is how politicians will try to divert the attention of the masses through the use of an external threat.

[cody]

Future American Civil Purge (Civil War)?

We all know about the politically correct media and its influence, However it also is also very disconnected from reality. Many are veraciously opposed to being force feed liberal crap like accepting gays as normal and a host of other PC stuff. Often mainstream media espousing views that few people actually hold. America has so many fracture lines it is hard for one to gain momentum. Also there is widespread discontent with our legal system. Many feel it is very unfair. There are regional divides showing too as explained above.
As a financial speculator I can say there is a scarcity of resources that is only going to grow. I will profit handsomely from this but it will mean significantly higher inflation adjusted real prices for all Americans. This will have a big effect on things. There is little any politician can do about this except unwillingly take the blame.
There is also a divide on the US China line I see this in my travels to China, something is going on with the Chinese mood.
I agree there is a real generational shift that is occurring in America.
It is hard to say what it will be in the future, a worsening economy will be the catalyst.
I will make a prediction, If the economy worsens there will be blood no question about it.

I have noticed that the blacks have big riots about every 20 years so it is about time for a new one. Does anyone have history going further back on this? Another prediction black riots coming in the next decade.

[Felix34]

These are all opinions so feel free to debate and critique, I don't mind it at all.

I think you guys are overacting a bit, Montana is a very liberal state and the "liberal policy" on gun control is very strict. It's not a surprise that this was passed. You can expect this to appealed in the supreme court, it's happened many times before.

I'm pretty surprised at Alaska though, I thought they were fairly conservative. Or maybe they're not? I think the recent election through everyone off, they're governor was running for VP so of course they would vote for her party.

As for a civil war? I actually think this is the first war that could be started and fought by older folks. Notice how all old, fat, middle-aged, people are at those tea party rallies? Because we're trying to make a world for younger people and that means ruing their way of life. The new bill will supposedly "screw up their company offered health care" at least this is what my mother keeps telling me. Young people just don't care, we don't have company offered health care and hopefully won't have to deal with that pressure. (I don't like the idea of being coerced into sticking with one job your entire life because it comes off as trapping to me.)

I happen to find Generation Jones a very interesting Generation. They're not exactly dumb, on the contrary they're very pragmatic.They're awfully gullible and more emotional than even the Boomers however and I believe this is their downfall. They have a basic pragmatism in them to go out and work, read the newspaper everyday, and do other mundane routine things. On a larger level...there seems to be a massive misunderstanding of the global economy and global issues. I think it has a lot to do with the fact that they grew up in a "small town" world, but emerged as young adults in a "big city" or global environment. They were sort of forced into a world they didn't understand and had little training for. Now that it's changing to an unimaginative level, UHC, etc...they see it as a move in the wrong direction. It's just too much for them and I can see the backlash just from watching the media every night. What is wrong with Glenn Beck? Not only does he have no idea of what he's talking about, but he's panicking his entire generation with that talk. I get the vibe that Generation Jones was a very ignored and low key generation and seeing someone like Beck on tv makes them feel as if their voice is heard.

Young people voted for Obama in large numbers, I don't think Yers have the same hatred in the government that Generation Jones has. Xers are a sort of drop out generation, they don't particularly care about what's going on with these tea parties. They already had their rebellion in the 80s, early 90s and have now settled.

I don't believe Yers are "against" anything, they just attempt to work around it. We don't have that anger that Xers and Boomers had, enough to make us revolt.

Generation Z is going to be the next Artist generation and due to that the next Prophecy generation hasn't even been born yet and wouldn't be 18 by 2020. So who's going to rebel by then?

I don't think this will result in rebellion, but perhaps reinvention? That's how I tend to think of Yers, they reinvent rather than rebel because that's not in the nature considering the environment we grew up in. At least that's our form of "rebellion," I suppose.

[xakzen]

...
Young people voted for Obama in large numbers, I don't think Yers have the same hatred in the government that Generation Jones has. Xers are a sort of drop out generation, they don't particularly care about what's going on with these tea parties. They already had their rebellion in the 80s, early 90s and have now settled.

I don't believe Yers are "against" anything, they just attempt to work around it. We don't have that anger that Xers and Boomers had, enough to make us revolt.

Generation Z is going to be the next Artist generation and due to that the next Prophecy generation hasn't even been born yet and wouldn't be 18 by 2020. So who's going to rebel by then?

I don't think this will result in rebellion, but perhaps reinvention? That's how I tend to think of Yers, they reinvent rather than rebel because that's not in the nature considering the environment we grew up in. At least that's our form of "rebellion," I suppose.

If Helicopter Ben is(has been) successful, and the crisis has been delayed once again (maybe you're too young to remember the dot-bomb & 9/11 crises); then the Hero generation hasn't been born yet or are just kids under ten today. That makes what you are calling Gen Y (and most others Millennial) are just an extension of my GenX like the New World Nomadic Cavaliers which were 40 years of pirates & slave traders. What everyone likes to ignore is that without the formative crises there is no selfless Heroism or Nomadic pragmatism or Prophetic vision or Artistic nurture just more of the same. This suites the establishment just fine until they discover that without political alternatives, the people will eventually turn to the Robespierres for indiscriminate justice rather than none at all.

[CrosstimbersOkie]

Montana made firearms now exempt from all federal laws.

http://data.opi.mt.gov/bills/2009/billhtml/HB0246.htm

All firearms, short barrel shotguns, short barrel rifles, silencers, and firearms with a bore under 1.5" are deemed exempt from the NFA if they're made in MT.
And they're exempt from the 1968 GCA as well, which means no serial numbers and no NICS check either.

----------------------

We have seen a dozen or so states in the last few months pass token Sovereignity legislation - but this law, which was evidently signed into law in Montana by the Democratic Governor of that state yesterday, goes much further.

Here is how I see this progessing :

1) at first the feds ignore this law
2) then the feds go into MT and arrest someone as a trial run to see how the sate govt reacts
3) either the state backs down or the Feds do - this time
4) then they try again and this time the ATF brings their A-level enforcers and the state of MT sends their state police - this time someone, probably on both sides - gets killed
5) Fed govt sends the ATF in again - only this time with US Army troops backing them up
6) MT governor responds with Montana Natl Guard troops
7) Fed govt attempts to 'fire' the governor of MT - or somehow destroy his ability to control the Nat Guard
8) Governor/Legislature of MT decrees that they will no longer remit ANY tax monies to the Federal govt
9) Surrounding states of WY and ID plus supportive states like NV + TX - all step in to provide support (troops/money/supplies/political power) to the governor of MT
10) Now you essentially have a minor level civ war

How long this takes depends on how many times one side or the other backs downs or retreats. And this will spread to other Fed gov programs like NAIS - that farm thing and a lot of other Fed gov boondoggles.

Fourth Turning baby. This is the first step towards the 4T Crisis war IMO - right here, right now.

It will never happen. The people in each government who will be directly involved see their 'opponents' as colleagues, not enemies. They will reach an amicable solution to the problem until the courts or legislatures can fix the problem. What this conflict could lead to is more political pressure in the direction of increased state sovereignty v. the federal government. But it will be a political conflict, not a shooting war.