Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

As for a major war involving the United States, I would give it about five years or so before we're in a war with China. They're already mobilizing for it.

There's also a major difference between a crisis war and a non-crisis war. You can find the criteria here http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... #lab102113

One criteria I would add to the list is this. In every war, you're going to take casualties, no matter how well you fight. In a non-crisis war, as they pile up, people turn against the war and many decide to negotiate. In a crisis war, after taking heavy losses, it will only harden a country or group's resolve and make them more determined than ever to crush the enemy.

From what I've seen, though, the gap is usually less than 80 years. The median is around 62 or so and the greatest probability is around the 55-59 year time frame. For the United States, it seems to be longer than the median. It's already been 66 years and counting. The maximum is around 110 years and the minimum is 42.

Fraction
# years of total
------- --------
0- 40 0%
41- 49 11%
50- 59 33%
60- 69 25%
70- 79 16%
80- 89 4%
90- 99 6%
100-117 5%

John,
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... #lab100198 says that the 2000s were supposed to be the decade of the next Great Depression. Obviously, that didn't happen. We may have had bad recessions, but certainly not a depression. I'm in the process of reading Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny, and I was wondering if you could explain some of the incorrect predictions in there.

Trevor, why is it that America is different?

I admit, I'm not exactly sure as to the reason for why some mid-cycle periods are so long. Short ones, as in less than 50 years between crisis wars, generally seem to be because of an outside invasion. Now you'd assume that somebody got invaded in a recovery or awakening period, but after 40 years, enough survivors of the previous war have died that a crisis war can happen again.

There's also a "First Turning Reset" in which the generational cycle is destroyed and starts over. Either its a massive dislocation of a population, like sailing to the New World, or its an invasion that's so brutal and devastating that the cycle is destroyed, like Russia in the Second World War.

mretchin wrote:John,
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... #lab100198 says that the 2000s were supposed to be the decade of the next Great Depression. Obviously, that didn't happen. We may have had bad recessions, but certainly not a depression. I'm in the process of reading Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny, and I was wondering if you could explain some of the incorrect predictions in there.

Well, I'm not John, but I have a theory that it is related to the size of the entangled economies in question. In other words, today's global economy has more room to absorb abuses. Eventually, the balloon will pop, it's just that a bigger balloon takes longer to pop than a little balloon. Also, you have to take into account that the mathematical formulas used for analyzing the economy have been changed over the years, ostensibly to increase accuracy, but actually destroying the ability to track historical trends. For example, many able-bodied working age adults that were counted as unemployed in the 30s and 40s are disregarded today. If you hear about people who have "stopped looking for work", those people are no longer considered unemployed even though their only source of income is whatever government assistance they can qualify for.

John Williams over at Shadowstats.com has been tracking the US economy using the early formulas for the sake of comparison and I must say the picture looks bad and is getting worse. By some estimates, we are actually on the leading edge of economic collapse. The only reason we don't see massive lines at the soup kitchens and homeless shelters (or Hoovervilles) is because so many families are receiving government benefits that didn't exist during Great Depression I (and because so many communities, such as my own, break up the tent cities as soon as they form). That can't last forever, though. At some point, there will not be enough tax revenue to pay all those benefits even if we tax the "rich" at 100%+. That will be the beginning of the end, assuming we aren't already at that point.

If a pre-emptive strike against Iran by Israel doesn't trigger WWIII this year or next (as I saw suggested in the news the other day), we may yet see that Great Depression II hit the US with full fury.

mretchin wrote:When could we expect a crisis to develop in Mexico? And could the flux of foreign immigrants into a country be predictable? Surely it has an effect on both the country with the large amount of immigrants and the country losing them.

Any ideas?

I would argue that Mexico has already entered the opening stages preceding their Crisis Event. The US has seen a massive influx of illegal immigration for years, but the trend is now reversing, thanks to our own declining economy, and we now see as many immigrants returning to Mexico as we see coming in. As jobs become even more scarce here, the net flow will turn outward as disillusioned immigrants return to Mexico in droves where they may not have anything, but at least they will again be near the friends and families they left behind and to whom they have been wiring part of their meager paychecks all these years. This will place increasing stress on the already fracturing Mexican economy, thus increasing Mexican disillusionment in their own government leaders. Additionally, the drug cartels have become the de facto leaders of the northern parts of Mexico and have actually made parts of the US in Texas and Arizona so dangerous that the Border Patrol has basically given up and set out signs warning US citizens to stay away. The cartels began gaining power through ruthless intimidation, which is still their hallmark, but they are starting to learn that they can gain the support of the citizenry simply by using some of their ill-gotten wealth to raise the standard of living of the villages and towns, which in turn benefits the cartels again. In some regions, they are actually more popular that the legitimate Mexican leaders, who are seen as ineffectual at best.

To my mind, the proper government of Mexico is no longer the de facto government of Mexico and that de facto government by the Cartels has instituted a full-on undeclared invasion of the US, supported by a Mexican President who supports open borders with the US (but not along Mexico's southern borders where Central American immigrants enter Mexico in search of a better life) and those Mexican loyalists remaining in the US who pursue their vision of "Aztlan" - a Mexican state incorporating all the land that was once ceded to the US by treaty (most of the west and southwest US). All it will take is a US President willing to militarize the border and we could see an abrupt renewal of the old Mexican-American War only with Mexico now led by the drug cartels and foreign allies. If we are already in conflict elsewhere in the world, there are plenty of hostile nations (some of them nuclear powers) who would be more than willing to ally with Mexico in exchange for tactical advantages, while Mexico would be so desperate for financial salvation and military assistance that they may be eager to make such alliances. I see Mexico as a dangerous Crisis hotspot that may not cause the Clash of Civilizations by itself, but could easily pull it into the Western Hemisphere if we are not already involved.

John wrote: If a country goes through an entire Crisis era
with no actual crisis, then it enters a new era, a "Fifth Turning,"
which has different characteristics from turnings 1-4.

I've been thinking about the Fifth Turning problem a lot lately and analyzing the behaviors and values of the Millenials around me. I'm not convinced that it is properly an additional Turning. I see it rather as the natural course of a Fourth Turning in the absence of a Crisis Event. I see the new Hero generation (let's call them "proto-Heros" for the moment) as being optimistic and gung-ho, but also very naive. They have been protected and sheltered as children and grow up believing in the positive aspects of their society without having anything negative to compare it with. As such, they are easily manipulated by the Nomad generation as tools to achieve the increasingly destructive goals of the Nomads. This normally leads to a full-on Crisis, in which the proto-Heros are traumatized and learn the necessary negative lessons in an abrupt, harsh way. This is what changes them into proper Heros able to end the Crisis and institute real reforms for the betterment of society.

In the absence of a Crisis Event, the Nomads retain ultimate power past the time they would normally have been retiring out of the picture, thereby extending the Fourth Turning beyond it's predicted span. The proto-Heros believe they are taking over control, but in their naivete they continue to be manipulated from behind the scenes by the Nomads. This is where we see such things as religious martyrs and suicide bombers appear. Furthermore, the proto-Heros unwittingly pass their own naivete on to their children under the influence of their Nomad "advisors", thereby raising a new generation of easily manipulated proto-Heros. This generational repetition, however, is an inherently unstable situation and must eventually collapse in one of three ways:

1. A Crisis Event occurs, either caused from within by the Nomads' actions or imposed from without by other predatory Crisis-Era societies seeing "easy prey". At this point, a Generational Reset can occur normally, if a bit late.

2. The unravelling evolves into complete collapse of the society and death or effective disappearance of the remaining Nomads, at which point the long-suffering proto-Heros become Heros and pick up the pieces to create a new society. I call this a "Slow Crisis" because it proceeds more gradually than other types of Crises. In this case, the slowly growing awareness of their naivete and the Nomad manipulations provides the trauma necessary to transform the proto-Heros.

3. The proto-Hero generation learns their lessons quickly, becoming aware of the manipulations of the Nomads. If the Nomads to do not relinquish power and influence voluntarily, this path will lead to Revolution as the newly transformed Heros become unwilling to tolerate the status quo any longer. Disillusionment provides the transformative Hero trauma.

In summary, I believe a Fifth Turning is nothing more than the logical extension of a Fourth Turning in the absence of a Crisis Event to transform the proto-Heros into proper Heros. As a separate but related thought, I suspect that the length of an unravelling and early crisis era relates to the severity of the impending crisis. In other words, crises that take a long time coming tend to also be more violent, more furious, and more catastrophic. Given how long some of the current crisis-era nations have been waiting, that suggests the eventual Clash of Civilizations is going to be a doozy indeed!


But I could be wrong. In fact, as a Nomad, I'm probably wrong. At least I'm not in charge.

falopex wrote:Additionally, the drug cartels have become the de facto leaders of the northern parts of Mexico and have actually made parts of the US in Texas and Arizona so dangerous that the Border Patrol has basically given up and set out signs warning US citizens to stay away. The cartels began gaining power through ruthless intimidation, which is still their hallmark, but they are starting to learn that they can gain the support of the citizenry simply by using some of their ill-gotten wealth to raise the standard of living of the villages and towns, which in turn benefits the cartels again. In some regions, they are actually more popular that the legitimate Mexican leaders, who are seen as ineffectual at best.

I know it's terribly gauche to quote ones' self, but I thought I should clarify that I think the genocidal requirement of a Crisis is satisfied by the cartels' demonstrated willingness to kill as many people as it takes in as brutal a fashion as it takes to make their points, whatever those points might be. Just watch the international news from the border region and you'll see countless examples of atrocities committed by the cartels in the name of "making a statement".

I think something like 50,000 people have died in Mexico over the past 5 years. The carnage over there is just unbelievable and they're even worse than Columbia ever was (since they're in a different place on the generational timeline)

As for immigration.... it's proved to be something of a safety value for them, whatever americans might feel about it. They supposedly do the jobs that "Americans won't do". Well, when you have persistently high unemployment and slow economic growth, there comes a point where there are no jobs that we won't do. I remember hearing of a part-time gas station job where I live and it stunned me when I heard that there were 200 applications for something that small. They come here primarily to find work and if there's nothing to be found, there's not a lot of incentive to stick around.

I almost forgot to mention: Mexico actually had a major financial crisis in the 1990's. We ended up bailing them out of it. If we hadn't, I think they would have had a new crisis war on the same fault line as before. Now, however, things are getting bad for them in more ways than one. If their immigrants start heading back, that's going to be more people in poverty. Not only that, but a lot of their income comes from people sending money to their families from the United States. When fewer people are working, that's going to be cut off.

Lastly, their economy is also highly dependent on tourism. Now that drug wars are slaughtering people left and right, many fear to go into Mexico. Not that I blame them; it's more dangerous than Afghanistan at this point.

As for the 5th turning, I admit, I don't know a whole lot about it. It doesn't happen very often, since about 85% of crisis wars have a gap of less than 80 years. Suicide bombers seem to be one characteristic of them. Perhaps extremely violent crime is another, but countries in a 5th turning right now are Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Morocco. (this site puts Russia on that list, but I consider the Great Patriotic war to be a first turning reset)