I'm a little taken aback by the comparison of 1840s America tohumphreyhawksley wrote: > I am reading American Notes by Charles Dickens on his journey
> there in 1842. At the time, there was general critiscism in Europe
> of the way America conducted itself -- the rebellious offspring
> from the colonial mother country -- with slavery being an obvious
> target. The 'New World' carried much ideological baggage and
> writers such as Trollope described America as 'that great
> experiment with democracy' -- democracy then being a concept more
> perjorative than advocated. I sense a similar, yet reverse,
> sentiment now with China. It has embarked upon a massive social
> experiment, the mechanisms of which are frowned upon by most in
> our own societies. But in the past year or so with issues such as
> the economic crisis, climate change and the development of Africa,
> we are beginning to become fascinated in the way China does
> things.
today's China, but actually, from the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, the comparison may be quite apt.
In both cases we have a late generational Unraveling /
post-unraveling era. That's when the survivors of the last crisis
war are disappearing, and the younger generations are making the same
kinds of mistakes that created the preceding crisis. Political
bickering increases, government becomes paralyzed, and compromises
are increasingly rare.
The U.S. managed to hold off the civil war for almost 20 more years,
largely through the efforts of some great "Unionists," older
survivors of the Revolutionary War period who were still alive, and
who placed the Union above the political issues.
China is trying to hold off a massive civil war, as groups in Tibet,
Xinjiang and Taiwan press for self-government, or even independence.
China has a history of massive rebellions (White Lotus rebellion,
Taiping Rebellion, Communist Revolution), and the time is ripe for a
new one. With over 100,000 "mass incidents" per year, China may not
be able to hold it off for one year, let alone 20 years.
A big difference between America in 1842 and China today is that
America was completely isolated, separated from Europe (and Asia) by
large oceans. (There was only one American war during that period,
the Mexican-American war, but the smaller Mexican army was easily
defeated.) Combine this isolation with the fact that America had no
history of civil war, and you can put together a case for why America
avoided the Civil War for so long.
China has none of those advantages. To the contrary, China's
military is actively preparing for war with the U.S. China also has
clients in central Asia, especially Pakistan. China and Japan are
always just one false move away from war. So China is not isolated
at all.
** China approaches Civil War
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... hina050116
** China's plans for war with America
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 01#e060501
On the other hand, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao are both civil war
survivors, and they're leading the CCP to do everything possible to
avoid a new civil war, just like the "Unionists" in the U.S.
And so, returning to your original point, I agree with you, but
perhaps not in the way you meant. The Europeans were curious to see
whether the Union would survive, though they did not feel militarily
threatened by the U.S. (especially after the War of 1812 fiasco).
Many Americans today would be unable to find China on a map, but
among those who actually know something about China, the level of
distrust is very high, and the fascination that we have with China's
social experiments is over the question of when the worst is going to
happen.
John