China

[John]

You may well be right.

Here's a story from Xinhua discussing a very dire situation with
wheat fungus:

China warns of wheat disease epidemic, control efforts urgent
2009-02-07 00:24:33

BEIJING, Feb. 6 (Xinhua) -- The Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) warned Friday of the widespread of the fungus Puccinia striiformis, also known as stripe rust, a wheat disease that could cause huge losses.

It is bad news for China's summer harvest as the nation continues its war against rare drought conditions.

The fungus, one of the most dangerous wheat diseases, was likely to prevail across the nation due to the abnormal climate, MOA said in an emergency notice.

The disease has affected more than 11.3 million mu (753,000 hectares) of wheat in seven provinces by Feb. 5, 4.6 million mu more than the same period last year. ...

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009- ... 776740.htm

Somewhere or other, I also read last year that the same "rust" fungus
has also struck wheat crops in Africa.

John

[JimZ]

This past weekend our new Secretary of State, Hillary, went hat in hand to China begging them to keep buying our debt. As I read the news accounts I am reminded of John's observation tnat if you read the book "The Bubble that Broke the World" you need to realize that the role the US and Germany played in that book are now replaced with China and the US. In other words, in 2009 China is the economy with money to lend (not the US) and they have a vested interest in propping up the bankrupt economy of the US (similar to bankrupt Germany in 1930's) so they can sell their exports.

Here is a quote from Hillary to the Chinese media:

Our economies are so intertwined, the Chinese know that to start exporting again to their biggest market, namely the United States, the United States has to take some very drastic measures with this stimulus package, which means we have to incur more debt.

For complete article go to http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/200 ... _debt.html

[StilesBC]

How, you think, that the State in question - will finance all those (and other) activities above...?

They will reallocate the resources from other, more productive areas of the economy and from the future to the activities you mentioned. This will not produce inflation. It will only prolong the deflation.

[mannfm11]

I like that bubble that broke the world book, but the US today isn't Germany of the 1930's other than the fact we may have elected a nut President. First of all, there isn't gold tied to money any more and that was a real fly in the ointment. Second, the financing needs of the US are way in excess of China and Japan, which in sum have about $1.4 trillion in US bonds. It would take a huge swing in trade toward China and Japan to make up that kind of money and I don't see that happening. What i do see happening is the US banks are going to lend to the government rather than the subprime characters. The Fed has already set it up. They can probably avoid deflation to some extent as money goes round and round, but they can't avoid the fact that the subprime up to his neck in debt borrower is not borrower any more. The asset bubble is dust and the government is about to preside over the largest drop in living standard in the history of mankind.

[JLak]

When I was in the military, my strategic language was Mandarin and I followed some of the government statements. The defense minister would constantly say that war with the US was inevitable. Before the USS Cole bombing, this was THE big deal in strategic studies because the Middle East was considered no more than a nuisance. At about this time, the Chinese government also began growing the export markets, ostensibly to buy US debt and oil fields around the world. I can understand the oil fields, but what about the debt? Is there a destabilization strategy there? My understanding is that China has a long-term strategy for everything. They wouldn't open up the markets and buy US debt if there wasn't a goal that ties back to the little red book.

If I may put on a red hat, this would be my strategy:
-Open the markets to make money and get technology investments from the west
-use money to buy oil fields - obvious
-consider personal technology investments as a strategic weapon in asymmetric warfare. The iPhone is mightier than the JDAM.
-buy US debt and let the government grow into the bloated expectation
-wait until the demand for treasuries begins to drop and the fed loses it's appetite for them
-undersell the US government for 3 years during which the US will be unable to raise revenue and soldiers will go unpaid
-offer US soldiers and sailors mercenary pay for securing foreign oil sources against their old enemies
-Strongarm neighbors into an Asian Union with trade and media controlled from Beijing

[StilesBC]

When I was in the military, my strategic language was Mandarin and I followed some of the government statements. The defense minister would constantly say that war with the US was inevitable. Before the USS Cole bombing, this was THE big deal in strategic studies because the Middle East was considered no more than a nuisance. At about this time, the Chinese government also began growing the export markets, ostensibly to buy US debt and oil fields around the world. I can understand the oil fields, but what about the debt? Is there a destabilization strategy there? My understanding is that China has a long-term strategy for everything. They wouldn't open up the markets and buy US debt if there wasn't a goal that ties back to the little red book.

If I may put on a red hat, this would be my strategy:
-Open the markets to make money and get technology investments from the west
-use money to buy oil fields - obvious
-consider personal technology investments as a strategic weapon in asymmetric warfare. The iPhone is mightier than the JDAM.
-buy US debt and let the government grow into the bloated expectation
-wait until the demand for treasuries begins to drop and the fed loses it's appetite for them
-undersell the US government for 3 years during which the US will be unable to raise revenue and soldiers will go unpaid
-offer US soldiers and sailors mercenary pay for securing foreign oil sources against their old enemies
-Strongarm neighbors into an Asian Union with trade and media controlled from Beijing

The shrewdness of the Chinese cannot be underestimated. They will wait years or decades to implement some goal or plan. They have a distinct cultural ability to think in terms of the long-term. Some quotes from Deng Xiaoping:

“China is not a superpower, nor will she ever seek to be one. If one day China should change her color and turn into a superpower, if she too should play the tyrant in the world, and everywhere subject others to her bullying, aggression and exploitation, the people of the world should identify her as social-imperialism, expose it, oppose it and work together with the Chinese people to overthrow it.”

“Keep a cool head and maintain a low profile, ... Never take the lead - but aim to do something big.”

The second quote has become a sort of cultural icon.

[JimZ]

In regards to Jlak and StilesBC comments on China's longer term strategy for U.S. debt - they can have a lot of influence with control of almost $2 Trillion in US currency. One sobering view is that they can make demands on the US and we have to listen because we are so indebted to them. One frightening view is that they can destabilize our currency at an opportune moment (for them) and wreak havok on America.

With the second possibility in mind, I am concerned reading Ambrose Evans Pritchards article on China buying hard metals in place of US dollars.

Link to article:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... ystem.html

Scary excerpt from article:

One thing is clear: Beijing suspects that the US Federal Reserve is engineering a covert default on America's debt by printing money. Premier Wen Jiabao issued a blunt warning last month that China was tiring of US bonds. "We have lent a huge amount of money to the US, so of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets," he said.

[StilesBC]

China is going to talk about dumping their Treasuries until they are blue in the face. Why? Because every time they do that, treasuries fall and yields rise.

A more probable reason for China's accumulation of metal is something often discussed on these pages: war.

[malleni]

China is going to talk about dumping their Treasuries until they are blue in the face. Why? Because every time they do that, treasuries fall and yields rise.

A more probable reason for China's accumulation of metal is something often discussed on these pages: war.

StilesBC
Please. Think twice:


Additionally, for your information:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3ce4216a-1af4-1 ... ck_check=1

"
...
China is unhappy. So much is clear as a book stating just this and recommending a confrontation with the west as a remedy has conquered the country’s bestseller lists and triggered a fierce online debate over China’s place in the world and its identity.

Unhappy China argues that the country should stand up to the west to claim its rightful place as a global power, and it looks to a patriotic young generation as a source of national strength and unity.

This comes just as China’s harassment of a US surveillance ship, which was branded by Washington as “aggressive, troublesome” behaviour, and Beijing’s proposal that the US dollar could be replaced as the main international reserve currency, gave powerful reminders of the country’s potential to become a global power both militarily and economically.
...
"


Perhaps, somebody in west can understand this book printed those days as "aggressive China" - but I personally understand that author try to rightfully argue that Chinese leaders should stand up and impose their choices on the "international community" (read "West" or even better - USA).

If you are thinking that China is one who can start a war against USA - please think twice here too:
1. who started or WAS involved in EACH war in the last 60 years?
2. who has more than 20 times bigger military budget then next 3 nations on "the list"?
3. who is the most aggressive nation EVER exist - on the Planet?

So when you saying - "war"...
perhaps...
BUT definitely NOT an aggressive one.
Chinese, can ONLY be attacked by "the most aggressive nation on the Planet" and no chance for something others.

Who can blame a CREDITOR for defending himself against very aggressive DEBTOR?
Who "wining" on such "war situation"... Creditor with massive non-paid debt, or Debtor with NO ability to pay the debt?

Best regards
malleni

[MarshAviator]

WASHINGTON: The Chinese cyber spies have penetrated so deep into the US system — ranging from its secure defence network, banking system,
electricity grid to putting spy chips into its defence planes — that it can cause serious damage to the US any time, a top US official on counter-intelligence has said.

This from the Times of India.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Worl ... 412075.cms

It certainly appears the Chinese are preparing for War.
At least they are hedging their bets against the U.S.

This while DHS is focusing on third party supporters and so called fringe elements.
I really wonder if this is the 21st century's "Pearl Harbor"?

The clouds darken.