BBC wrote:> China 'faces mass social unrest'
> Rising unemployment and the economic slowdown could cause massive
> social turmoil in China, a leading scholar in the Communist Party
> has said.
> "The redistribution of wealth through theft and robbery could
> dramatically increase and menaces to social stability will grow,"
> Zhou Tianyong, a researcher at the Central Party School in
> Beijing, wrote in the China Economic Times.
> "This is extremely likely to create a reactive situation of
> mass-scale social turmoil," he wrote.
> His views do not reflect leadership policy but highlight worries
> in elite circles about the impact of the economic slowdown.
> Mr Zhou warned that the real rate of urban joblessness reached
> 12% this year and could reach 14% next year as the economy slows.
nanook wrote:> If we are to count the Cambodian Killing Field as the most recent
> sufficiently significant "Crisis War" experience that Thais had,
> the last "Crisis War" in China did not end in 1949. The Mao
> nightmare didn't end until the late 1960's and early 70's, with
> the result that anyone 35 or older today in China having witnessed
> first hand the political and economic turmoil that killed millions
> of people.
nanook wrote:> When Chinese economy falls apart, which I agree it probably will,
> with all the Keynesian capital misallocations coming, the CCP will
> lose its last vestige of legitimacy. It won't be able to challenge
> any of its neighbors militarily, simply because itself is too
> corrupt and inefficient.
nanook wrote:> I agree with you that, some military officer probably will kick
> out CCP as there is no grassroot organized opposition; then
> regional commanders and governors will declare their own
> independence . . . in a way that's very much similar to the 1911
> Sun Yatsen revolution against the exhausted Manchu Dynasty. . .
> more or less bloodless . . . simply because the generations in
> charge had already lived through bloody nightmares in their
> youths. There were plenty incidents that could have triggered
> massive bloody civil war in the 1910's China, including dynastic
> restoration and subsequent repudiation, twice over, but no large
> scale war took place (very much in keeping with your Generational
> Dynamics theory). China simply transformed into regional rule.
The Grey Badger wrote:> Yes, and as n observation - probably a completely banal one -
> I've noticed that the most conservative governments in the world,
> whether of a nation or of an institution, are those geared towards
> filling their highest offices with very old men. China, the
> Vatican, the Latter Day Saints - I'm sure many others will come to
> mind. The question with China is, will this trend continue no
> matter what? Or will the changing times end with getting rid of
> their tendency to gerontocracy? I think this is probably one of
> the most important questions facing China in the long
JimZ wrote:> John has often mentioned reading "The Bubble that Broke the World"
> (I think that's the title), and has noted that this time around,
> China is playing the role of the US and the US is playing the role
> Germany played.
> Beyond the scary prospect of Obama's next book being titled "Mein
> Kampf", here is some sobering comparisons from the UK Daily
> "China has relied on exports to North America and Europe as its
> growth engine, making it acutely vulnerable to the contraction in
> global demand. Mr Pettis said this recalls the role played by the
> US in the 1920s, a parallel fraught with danger. "In the 1930s the
> US foolishly tried to dump capacity abroad, but the furious
> reaction of trading partners caused the strategy to misfire. China
> already seems to be in the process of engineering its own
> Smoot-Hawley," he said, referring to the infamous US Tariff Act in
> 1930. "
> Here is the link:
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... alues.html
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