Thailand protests - will they escalate

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isaac
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Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:32 am

Thailand protests - will they escalate

Post by isaac »

I am watching the protests in Thailand and I am wondering if Thailand is not primed for a revolution. There has not been a crisis war since world war 2 in Thailand and no living person remembers the horrors of that anymore. Consequently I think it is pretty likely that this situation could escalate into a full blown civil war/revolution.

What do you think? Will it fizzle or will it escalate?

Isaac

isaac
Posts: 21
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:32 am

Thailand protests - will they escalate

Post by isaac »

I am watching the protests in Thailand and I am wondering if Thailand is not primed for a revolution. There has not been a crisis war since world war 2 in Thailand and no living person remembers the horrors of that anymore. Consequently I think it is pretty likely that this situation could escalate into a full blown civil war/revolution.

What do you think? Will it fizzle or will it escalate?

Isaac

StilesBC
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Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 9:44 pm

Re: Thailand protests - will they escalate

Post by StilesBC »

The king of Thailand is a very important figure. Far more important to Thais than any Prime Minister or other elected official/military official. Although he is getting very old. If something were to happen to him, there would be all out chaos. From wikipedia:

Bhumibol Adulyadej (Thai: ภูมิพลอดุลยเดช; IPA: [pʰuːmipʰon adunjadeːt]; Royal Institute: Phumiphon Adunyadet; listen (help·info)) (born Monday, 5 December 1927), is the current King of Thailand. Publicly acclaimed "the Great" (Thai: มหาราช, Maharaja), he is also known as Rama IX. Having reigned since 9 June 1946, he is the world's longest-serving current head of state and the longest-serving monarch in Thai history.[1]
Although Bhumibol is a constitutional monarch, he has several times made decisive interventions in Thai politics, including the 2005-2006 Thai political crisis. He was credited with facilitating Thailand's transition to democracy in the 1990s, although in earlier periods of his reign he supported some military regimes, including Sarit Dhanarajata and more recently, the Council for Democratic Reform. He has also used his considerable influence to stop coups, including recent attempts in 1981 and 1985.
Reported to be one of the richest men in the world, with a personal net worth of $35 billion dollars,[2] Bhumibol has used part of his great wealth to fund over 3,000 development projects, particularly in rural areas. He is immensely popular in Thailand, and is revered as a semi-divine figure by the Thais.[3][4][5]
Bhumibol was born in the United States and educated primarily in Switzerland. Bhumibol is also an accomplished musician, artist, and sailor.


The nation has many problems, including Muslim separatists in the south that have been conducting minor violence for years. Military coups seem to happen on a very regular basis. The Thai Baht was at the centre of the asian currency crisis in the late 90's. And I noticed during my extensive travels in the country that there has been a definite degradation of their traditional Buddhist values in the recent past, aka. "Americanization." Much of this is consistent with qualities of a Generational Unravelling, suggesting a new crisis is upon us.

I would assume, as most, that any crisis in Thailand would be internal, rather than external. Although they do have historical ties to China and could be drawn in to any conflict there in Tibet or other strongly Buddhist chinese territories - of which I would also include Myanmar (Burma).

I have strong feelings toward the Thai people, and sincerely hope that this does not escalate. But one cannot ignore the very striking patterns and potential catalysts.

John
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Re: Thailand protests - will they escalate

Post by John »

I've been following this situation for several years now, and at
times it's seemed almost hilarious. Thaksin Shinawatra is forced out
of office, so he goes to Britain and buys the Manchester City Football
Club. Eventually he's forced to give up the Club and return to
Thailand, where he's convicted of corruption, but before he's
sentenced he's allowed to make one last trip out of the country (to
visit the Olympics, as I recall), allowing him to escape once more.

The antics of the PAD, who seem to hate Thaksin Shinawatra as much as
much as Paul Krugman hates George Bush, have been fun to watch, but
there's no reason to believe that they'll escalate to violence. This
appears to be a typical Awakening era student demonstration, leading
to political chaos, but not much more.

This situation also seems to resolve the question of when was
Thailand's last crisis war. Every war that Thailand has had seems to
be described in history books as a "bloodless coup." Thailand
apparently has had nothing but bloodless coups. But the current
student demonstrations are clearly Awakening era events, meaning that
the last crisis war was involvement with the 1970s killing fields in
Cambodia.

Image

Southern Thailand, with its large Muslim population, is a different
story. Thailand is mostly Buddhist, and thousands of people have
been killed since 2004 by insurgent attacks in the south. The fear
is that Thai Islamists will link up with Jemaah Islamiyah and other
Malaysian and Indonesian terrorist groups.

John

liberty
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Re: Thailand protests - will they escalate

Post by liberty »

I believe it is possible that protests will esculate because of the troubling insurgent attacks in southern Thailand. The Thai Islamists share views with their neighbours in Malaysia. This has been brewing for at least 15years tightning their ties as neighbours.

StilesBC
Posts: 121
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Re: Thailand protests - will they escalate

Post by StilesBC »

John,

Maybe you know something that I don't, but I was not aware that Thailand was at all involved in Cambodia's genocidal crisis war better known by Pol Pot and his Khmer Rouge. In my travels through SE Asia, I visited numerous war museums in Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. By far the most significant war of the recent past for the Thais (and the Burmese) has been WWII. A trip to the war museum in Kanchanaburi (next to the Bridge on the River Kwai and the Death Railway) would probably be sufficient to convince you of this. 10's of thousands died in this war, as Thailand officially supported the Japanese yet a large anti-Japanese movement was also present. 10's of thousands of POWs died in the construction of the railway alone. Unfortunately, all statistics of casualties in imperial Japan are very shaky. They did not keep track of how many were murdered like the Nazis seemed to do.

I'm looking into it further, but it is my belief that Thailand/Burma and Cambodia/Vietnam/Laos are operating on separate generational timelines. Which is why I think it is important to see the potential for a clash between Buddhist nations in the south with the paranoid Han Chinese of the north. Looking further, you can see that not only Thailand and Burma share similarities with the Tibetans but the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh and Bhutan also seem to identify themselves most with a Burmese/Tibetan heritage. There are still border disputes between China and India leftover from the Sino-Indian war of 1962 (India cliams Arunachal Pradesh, China claims it as "Southern Tibet"). The southern Chinese state of Yunnan is also very spiritual and diverse, much to the chagrin of the Han.

John
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Re: Thailand protests - will they escalate

Post by John »

StilesBC wrote: > Maybe you know something that I don't, but I was not aware that
> Thailand was at all involved in Cambodia's genocidal crisis war
> better known by Pol Pot and his Khmer Rouge. In my travels through
> SE Asia, I visited numerous war museums in Thailand, Cambodia and
> Vietnam. By far the most significant war of the recent past for
> the Thais (and the Burmese) has been WWII. A trip to the war
> museum in Kanchanaburi (next to the Bridge on the River Kwai and
> the Death Railway) would probably be sufficient to convince you of
> this. 10's of thousands died in this war, as Thailand officially
> supported the Japanese yet a large anti-Japanese movement was also
> present. 10's of thousands of POWs died in the construction of the
> railway alone. Unfortunately, all statistics of casualties in
> imperial Japan are very shaky. They did not keep track of how many
> were murdered like the Nazis seemed to do.
Well, I'm not going to disagree with you. Matt1989 has also
identified WW II as Thailand's last crisis war. It's just that when
I read about Thailand in WW II, I don't see any genocidal fury. I
see a country doing what it has to do to keep from being overrun by
the Japanese, and no more.

By the way, it's not necessary for a war to be fought on a country's
soil to be a crisis war. WW II was not fought on America's soil,
except for the Pearl Harbor attack. Someone who looked at American
history for wars fought on American soil would think that WW II was a
brief skirmish.
StilesBC wrote: > I'm looking into it further, but it is my belief that
> Thailand/Burma and Cambodia/Vietnam/Laos are operating on separate
> generational timelines.
Here I have a definite conflict. I did a complete generational
analysis of Burma last year.

** Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 26#e070926


Burma's last crisis war was clearly the civil war that climaxed in
1958.
StilesBC wrote: > Which is why I think it is important to see the potential for a
> clash between Buddhist nations in the south with the paranoid Han
> Chinese of the north. Looking further, you can see that not only
> Thailand and Burma share similarities with the Tibetans but the
> Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh and Bhutan also seem to identify
> themselves most with a Burmese/Tibetan heritage. There are still
> border disputes between China and India leftover from the
> Sino-Indian war of 1962 (India cliams Arunachal Pradesh, China
> claims it as "Southern Tibet"). The southern Chinese state of
> Yunnan is also very spiritual and diverse, much to the chagrin of
> the Han.
I don't see the Burmese, or even the Thai, as genocidal enemies of
the Chinese. As important as the Buddhist issue is, the ethnic
differences are profound. The Khmer people came north from Malaysia,
while the Thai people came south from China, and that's a more
important distinction in this case, in my opinion.

And as you imply, India and China don't get along, and they're headed
for war with absolute certainty.

If you want to do a complete generational analysis and history of
Thailand, that's great -- I'd like to see it. You can find some
examples by doing a google search on: "site:generationaldynamics.com
generational history". If you do it, please try to work "The King
and I" into your history.

Sincerely,

John

Matt1989
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Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:30 am

Re: Thailand protests - will they escalate

Post by Matt1989 »

I specifically looked for Vietnam-related "genocidal" conflicts when researching Thailand. I found none, but maybe something eluded me.

Recall that protests are certainly not rarities in 4Ts. The focus is clearly outer-world and is far more dangerous and destabilizing, usually culminating in revolution.

John
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Re: Thailand protests - will they escalate

Post by John »

Dear Matt,
Matt1989 wrote: > I specifically looked for Vietnam-related "genocidal" conflicts
> when researching Thailand. I found none, but maybe something
> eluded me.

> Recall that protests are certainly not rarities in 4Ts. The focus
> is clearly outer-world and is far more dangerous and
> destabilizing, usually culminating in revolution.
That's what I mean. This situation has been going on for several
months, and there's nothing about it that seems dangerous or
destabilizing. The news reports describe these massive protests as
having "a carnival atmosphere." There are no calls for revolution,
just a new election to get rid of the current government, who the
demonstrators claim is allied with Thaksin.

This reminds of nothing so much as the Summer of Love in San
Francisco in 1967.

** Boomers commemorate the 40th anniversary of the Summer of Love.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... b#e070612b


And once that equivalence is accepted, then really the only logical
choice for the last crisis war would have to be something related to
the Cambodian killing fields in the 1970s. This really isn't
far-fetched at all. The Cambodian civil war was incredibly brutal,
one of the worst genocides of the century, with some eight million
people tortured and killed. This was all occurring right on
Thailand's doorstep, and it's hard to believe that the Thai people
simply went about their business while it was going on.

John

John
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Bangkok International Airport

Post by John »

-- Bangkok International Airport

Riot police are gathering around Bangkok's International Airport,
which has been shut down for several days, thanks to an occupation by
thousands of demonstrators.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008 ... tion=world

The situation may be about to change.

Sincerely,

John

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