Will Erdogan be the one who starts the CoC War?

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DaKardii
Posts: 943
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Will Erdogan be the one who starts the CoC War?

Post by DaKardii »

We all know that Recep Tayipp Erdogan is a bad guy. But what many people don't realize is that he's not the leader of a backward, third world country. He's the leader of Turkey, a country that I personally would put in the top 10 most powerful countries in the world. That makes him all the more dangerous.

I'm not the first person to assert the claim that Turkey will be a major player in global affairs in the 21st century. In his book The Next 100 Years, George Friedman of STRATFOR explicitly claims that by 2050, Turkey will not be just a great power, but a superpower. The map provided at the link below shows what Friedman's predicted Turkish empire will look like. Its sphere of influence dominates the entire Caucasus, virtually the entire Middle East, eastern Ukraine (including Crimea), the western half of Central Asia, the eastern half of North Africa, and the southern half of the Balkans.

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/71 ... yu-iQp.jpg

That being said, I would not be surprised at all if Erdogan has read Friedman's book, or at least consulted with those who have, and the idea that American foreign policy would be oriented specifically to have Turkey serve as a great counterweight to Russia has emboldened his resolve to resurrect the Ottoman Empire.

Over the last six years (especially the last year), Erdogan's foreign policy has been getting more and more out of control. He's becoming increasingly erratic. First, he gave it his all to make sure that Syria fragmented so he could establish pseudo-spheres of influence in the country using pro-Turkish proxies. This nearly resulted in war between Turkey and Russia in November 2015 after the former shot down a fighter jet belonging to the latter in order to protect those occupied territories.

However, Erdogan's strategy fell apart after the July 2016 coup attempt, which he seems to suspect was coordinated by the United States and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has a very good reason to see Erdogan overthrown. The Saudis are currently headed towards bankruptcy by 2020 due to declining oil prices and its massive military spending to fund its proxy wars with Iran. As its economy weakens, the Saudis are in increasing danger of losing its hegemony of the Sunni Islamic world to Turkey (which has been managing its economy much more responsibly). If Erdogan were overthrown, Turkey's aspirations to dominate the Sunni world would be set back by years, if not decades.

As a result of the coup, Turkey has been moving away from the United States and closer to Russia. Its reconciliation with Russia was the main reason it was allowed to participate in the January 2017 Astana conference, which I see as a blatant attempt by Russia, Iran, and Turkey to legalize their imperial aspirations in Syria. Even before the Astana conference, I was warning people on Breitbart that we were about to witness the beginning of a "Scramble for Arabia" between Turkey and Iran that would start in Syria and eventually spread to the rest of the Middle East. The results of the Astana conference seem to have proven my fears to be correct.

After the Astana conference, it seems that Erdogan is now more confident than ever that a neo-Ottoman empire is in Turkey's future. Over the last six months, he has been acting more and more like a caliph. He has been making proclamations on behalf of all Muslims worldwide and calling for religious warfare in the West (especially in Europe). One of his more recent declarations was particularly odious, where he threatened to behead his political opponents. Given that he has attempted to impose his policies in other countries (think about what happened in the Netherlands and during his visit to the United States earlier this year), I see that threat as being aimed towards the whole world, not just within Turkey. The man's mad, I tell you!

Meanwhile, he's been acting increasingly belligerent towards the United States. He has sided with Qatar during the Qatar crisis and even gone as far as threatening to go to war with Saudi Arabia in order to protect Qatar. Turkey's military is strong enough to wipe Saudi Arabia's military off the map, so a Saudi-Turkish war would likely force the United States to intervene in order to protect its hegemony in the Persian Gulf. And then what? Turkey cries Article V and Article VIII, the United States is kicked out of NATO for waging war against another member, and loses its hegemony in Europe overnight! Fortunately for us, that scenario didn't happen, because during the crisis, Turkey and Germany got into a major diplomatic dispute, and talks to renew the Astana agreement collapsed, causing tensions between Turkey and Russia. Almost overnight, Turkey alienated not one, but two potential great power allies in a conflict with the United States, which is almost certainly why he's backed down on Qatar, at least for now. But he's not done yet. While the Qatar crisis is on hold, Turkey appears to be sabotaging American military operations in Syria by giving away secret troop locations, and also working with the Iranians to sabotage the Syrian ceasefire brokered by the United States and Russia by having their proxies move dangerously close to the border with Israel in an attempt to provoke it. Erdogan has a very good reason to sabotage the ceasefire, because if it holds, Putin will not longer have any use for the Astana agreement, and likely demand that Turkey either withdraw from Syria, or face war with Russia.

While Turkey appears to be on the defensive for now, it still has one weapon up its sleeve that could prove seriously problematic in the future: Trump's demand for NATO members to spend more on their militaries. All it has to do is play nice with Trump and Putin for the next few years, use Trump's demand to NATO as an excuse for a massive military buildup, and use economic ventures such as its attempts to purchase Deutsche Bank (whose assets are worth $2.1 trillion) to fuel its economy, and it could repeat the six year "miracle" of Nazi Germany. Remember, in 1933, Germany was a failed state. In 1939, it was on the edge of being a superpower. Six years from now is 2023, which is the year that Erdogan has stated to be the deadline for his "New Turkey" to be created. Given that Erdogan has been acting increasingly Hitlerian in both domestic and foreign policy, the question is, could Erdogan's Turkey be the Nazi Germany of the 21st century? Could we be, in the CoC War facing against an Islamic superpower instead of a massive Islamic insurgency backed by China? Could Erdogan in fact go down history as the man who started the CoC War?

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Will Erdogan be the one who starts the CoC War?

Post by John »

DaKardii wrote: > We all know that Recep Tayipp Erdogan is a bad guy. But what many
> people don't realize is that he's not the leader of a backward,
> third world country. He's the leader of Turkey, a country that I
> personally would put in the top 10 most powerful countries in the
> world. That makes him all the more dangerous.

> I'm not the first person to assert the claim that Turkey will be a
> major player in global affairs in the 21st century. In his book
> The Next 100 Years, George Friedman of STRATFOR explicitly
> claims that by 2050, Turkey will not be just a great power, but a
> superpower. The map provided at the link below shows what
> Friedman's predicted Turkish empire will look like. Its sphere of
> influence dominates the entire Caucasus, virtually the entire
> Middle East, eastern Ukraine (including Crimea), the western half
> of Central Asia, the eastern half of North Africa, and the
> southern half of the Balkans.

> https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/71 ... yu-iQp.jpg

> That being said, I would not be surprised at all if Erdogan has
> read Friedman's book, or at least consulted with those who have,
> and the idea that American foreign policy would be oriented
> specifically to have Turkey serve as a great counterweight to
> Russia has emboldened his resolve to resurrect the Ottoman Empire.

> Over the last six years (especially the last year), Erdogan's
> foreign policy has been getting more and more out of control. He's
> becoming increasingly erratic. First, he gave it his all to make
> sure that Syria fragmented so he could establish pseudo-spheres of
> influence in the country using pro-Turkish proxies. This nearly
> resulted in war between Turkey and Russia in November 2015 after
> the former shot down a fighter jet belonging to the latter in
> order to protect those occupied territories.

> However, Erdogan's strategy fell apart after the July 2016 coup
> attempt, which he seems to suspect was coordinated by the United
> States and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has a very good
> reason to see Erdogan overthrown. The Saudis are currently headed
> towards bankruptcy by 2020 due to declining oil prices and its
> massive military spending to fund its proxy wars with Iran. As its
> economy weakens, the Saudis are in increasing danger of losing its
> hegemony of the Sunni Islamic world to Turkey (which has been
> managing its economy much more responsibly). If Erdogan were
> overthrown, Turkey's aspirations to dominate the Sunni world would
> be set back by years, if not decades.

> As a result of the coup, Turkey has been moving away from the
> United States and closer to Russia. Its reconciliation with Russia
> was the main reason it was allowed to participate in the January
> 2017 Astana conference, which I see as a blatant attempt by
> Russia, Iran, and Turkey to legalize their imperial aspirations in
> Syria. Even before the Astana conference, I was warning people on
> Breitbart that we were about to witness the beginning of a
> "Scramble for Arabia" between Turkey and Iran that would start in
> Syria and eventually spread to the rest of the Middle East. The
> results of the Astana conference seem to have proven my fears to
> be correct.

> After the Astana conference, it seems that Erdogan is now more
> confident than ever that a neo-Ottoman empire is in Turkey's
> future. Over the last six months, he has been acting more and more
> like a caliph. He has been making proclamations on behalf of all
> Muslims worldwide and calling for religious warfare in the West
> (especially in Europe). One of his more recent declarations was
> particularly odious, where he threatened to behead his political
> opponents. Given that he has attempted to impose his policies in
> other countries (think about what happened in the Netherlands and
> during his visit to the United States earlier this year), I see
> that threat as being aimed towards the whole world, not just
> within Turkey. The man's mad, I tell you!

> Meanwhile, he's been acting increasingly belligerent towards the
> United States. He has sided with Qatar during the Qatar crisis and
> even gone as far as threatening to go to war with Saudi Arabia in
> order to protect Qatar. Turkey's military is strong enough to wipe
> Saudi Arabia's military off the map, so a Saudi-Turkish war would
> likely force the United States to intervene in order to protect
> its hegemony in the Persian Gulf. And then what? Turkey cries
> Article V and Article VIII, the United States is kicked out of
> NATO for waging war against another member, and loses its hegemony
> in Europe overnight! Fortunately for us, that scenario didn't
> happen, because during the crisis, Turkey and Germany got into a
> major diplomatic dispute, and talks to renew the Astana agreement
> collapsed, causing tensions between Turkey and Russia. Almost
> overnight, Turkey alienated not one, but two potential great power
> allies in a conflict with the United States, which is almost
> certainly why he's backed down on Qatar, at least for now. But
> he's not done yet. While the Qatar crisis is on hold, Turkey
> appears to be sabotaging American military operations in Syria by
> giving away secret troop locations, and also working with the
> Iranians to sabotage the Syrian ceasefire brokered by the United
> States and Russia by having their proxies move dangerously close
> to the border with Israel in an attempt to provoke it. Erdogan has
> a very good reason to sabotage the ceasefire, because if it holds,
> Putin will not longer have any use for the Astana agreement, and
> likely demand that Turkey either withdraw from Syria, or face war
> with Russia.

> While Turkey appears to be on the defensive for now, it still has
> one weapon up its sleeve that could prove seriously problematic in
> the future: Trump's demand for NATO members to spend more on their
> militaries. All it has to do is play nice with Trump and Putin for
> the next few years, use Trump's demand to NATO as an excuse for a
> massive military buildup, and use economic ventures such as its
> attempts to purchase Deutsche Bank (whose assets are worth $2.1
> trillion) to fuel its economy, and it could repeat the six year
> "miracle" of Nazi Germany. Remember, in 1933, Germany was a failed
> state. In 1939, it was on the edge of being a superpower. Six
> years from now is 2023, which is the year that Erdogan has stated
> to be the deadline for his "New Turkey" to be created. Given that
> Erdogan has been acting increasingly Hitlerian in both domestic
> and foreign policy, the question is, could Erdogan's Turkey be the
> Nazi Germany of the 21st century? Could we be, in the CoC War
> facing against an Islamic superpower instead of a massive
> Islamic insurgency backed by China? Could Erdogan in fact go down
> history as the man who started the CoC War?
That map by Friedman is a total fantasy and if, as you suggest,
Erdogan is a follower, then it's a total fantasy for him as well.

This kind of analysis, which looks at current political events and
extrapolates them forward, is almost completely meaningless as a
crisis war approaches. What this analysis does is similar to looking
at the weather reports for the last six months, extrapolating them
forward, and concluding that by December the temperature in NY city
will be 150 degrees.

The whole point of generational theory is that you can't do that
extrapolation. Generational trends have to be analyzed over a period
of centuries, not a period of a few years.

DaKardii
Posts: 943
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Will Erdogan be the one who starts the CoC War?

Post by DaKardii »

John wrote:
That map by Friedman is a total fantasy and if, as you suggest,
Erdogan is a follower, then it's a total fantasy for him as well.

This kind of analysis, which looks at current political events and
extrapolates them forward, is almost completely meaningless as a
crisis war approaches. What this analysis does is similar to looking
at the weather reports for the last six months, extrapolating them
forward, and concluding that by December the temperature in NY city
will be 150 degrees.

The whole point of generational theory is that you can't do that
extrapolation. Generational trends have to be analyzed over a period
of centuries, not a period of a few years.
If you want to talk about generational trends, I would say that there is no way Turkey would be pursuing this type of foreign policy, or even have a guy like Erdogan in power in the first place, unless it were preparing for a crisis war. And indeed, Turkey hasn't had a crisis war since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire nearly 100 years ago. So far, I haven't seen any attempts on this site to chart the post-Ottoman generational turning periods, so I'll try to chart it myself. Let's see if I've got it right.

High: The era of one-party rule under Ataturk-ism (1923-1945)
Awakening: The multi-party era (1946-?)
Unraveling: Political instability (?-2001)
Crisis: AKP rule (2002-present)

I'm having trouble figuring out the turning point from awakening to unraveling. The dates I've been debating are 1960 (first coup; 14-year awakening followed by 42-year unraveling), 1971 (second coup; 25-year awakening followed by 31-year unraveling), 1974 (invasion of Cyprus; 28-year awakening followed by 28-year unraveling), 1980 (third coup; 34-year awakening followed by 22-year unraveling), and 1987 (beginning of late 20th century political instability; 41-year awakening followed by 15-year unraveling).

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