Conflict Risk Level For The Next 6-12 Months

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Iceman
Posts: 34
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 7:57 pm

Conflict Risk Level For The Next 6-12 Months

Post by Iceman »

Hello John, and the rest of the stellar/astute/exceptional/informative forum crew,

I know ya'll have been busy in here for the past several years, and I know this may sound a bit trivial in the light of what's going on around the globe of recent, but the last "Conflict Risk Level For The Next 6-12 Months" poll was published in October of 2014. So here's my take on it for what it's worth. Otherwise...adjust as you see fit, and thanks for all the excellent informative work in here of which I read on a daily basis! And Aedens, youdaman dude.

- W. Europe: 4 (+1 from 2014)

- Mideast: 4 (no change from 2014)

- Russia Caucasus: 3 (no change from 2014)

- Kashmir: 2 (no change from 2014)

- China: 3 (no change from 2014)

- North Korea: 4 (+2 from 2014)

- Financial: 3 (no change from 2014)

- Swine/Bird flu/Ebola: NOTE...I would have gone with a 2 which would have been -2 from 2014. HOWEVER...based on the articles I've read from Tom Mazanec who has posted in the H1N1 Swine Flu Pandemic section, I decided to keep the peddle-to-the-metal with the solid 4, thus no change from 2014.

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Conflict Risk Level For The Next 6-12 Months

Post by John »

Iceman wrote: > Hello John, and the rest of the
> stellar/astute/exceptional/informative forum crew,

> I know ya'll have been busy in here for the past several years,
> and I know this may sound a bit trivial in the light of what's
> going on around the globe of recent, but the last "Conflict Risk
> Level For The Next 6-12 Months" poll was published in October of
> 2014. So here's my take on it for what it's worth.
> Otherwise...adjust as you see fit, and thanks for all the
> excellent informative work in here of which I read on a daily
> basis! And Aedens, youdaman dude.

> - W. Europe: 4 (+1 from 2014)
> - Mideast: 4 (no change from 2014)
> - Russia Caucasus: 3 (no change from 2014)
> - Kashmir: 2 (no change from 2014)
> - China: 3 (no change from 2014)
> - North Korea: 4 (+2 from 2014)
> - Financial: 3 (no change from 2014)
> - Swine/Bird flu/Ebola: NOTE...I would have gone with a 2 which
> would have been -2 from 2014. HOWEVER...based on the articles
> I've read from Tom Mazanec who has posted in the H1N1 Swine Flu
> Pandemic section, I decided to keep the peddle-to-the-metal with
> the solid 4, thus no change from 2014.

> Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black
> 4=Active
Here are my responses:
  • W. Europe: 4 (+1 from 2014) -- I really don't think Europe is
    headed for war, so I would actually lower this to 2. The only
    possible exception might be Macedonia vs Greece, but I don't thinks
    that's yet on the horizon.
  • Mideast: 4 (no change from 2014) - With active wars in Syria, Iraq
    and Yemen, and possibly Libya, I would have to agree.
  • Russia Caucasus: 3 (no change from 2014) - Agree
  • Kashmir: 2 (no change from 2014) - I would raise Kashmir to 3 and
    possibly even to 4. This is the epicenter of war between Pakistan and
    India, and it could explode.
  • China: 3 (no change from 2014) -- Yeah, seems reasonable. The
    military action in the South China Sea keeps it from going to a 2.
  • North Korea: 4 (+2 from 2014) -- Agree
  • Financial: 3 (no change from 2014) -- Agree.
  • Swine/Bird flu/Ebola: I would go with a 2 on this. I was really
    impressed with the international response to Ebola that stopped it in
    its tracks, which I hadn't expected would happen. We've also seem
    several flu pandemics get stopped in their tracks. So I no longer
    believe that disease will trigger a world war. Instead, I now believe
    that it will happen the other way around -- the war will start,
    breaking down international medical controls, and that will result in
    a pandemic.
Now the only thing left is for me to do find the time to do the work
to update the actual chart.

Trevor
Posts: 1209
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Conflict Risk Level For The Next 6-12 Months

Post by Trevor »

I mostly agree with this, except for one point of disagreement. I would put North Korea at 3 instead of 4. Tensions are sky-high with their child dictator, but we aren't actually shooting at each other yet, so I don't think 4 would apply.

Iceman
Posts: 34
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2013 7:57 pm

Re: Conflict Risk Level For The Next 6-12 Months

Post by Iceman »

Thanks and appreciate your analysis on the conflict situation John and Trevor. Humbled to see that I was even in your ball park numbers John. Looking forward to seeing the 6 to 12 month outcome of it all. A toast then for you to do find the time to update the chart John. I'll add/end and say as I always heard them say in California when we were living in Vegas..."No worries." ;)

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Conflict Risk Level For The Next 6-12 Months

Post by John »

I agree Trevor. I drew a blank and confused 3 and 4. Old age.

DaKardii
Posts: 943
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Conflict Risk Level For The Next 6-12 Months

Post by DaKardii »

John wrote: Here are my responses:

[*] W. Europe: 4 (+1 from 2014) -- I really don't think Europe is
headed for war, so I would actually lower this to 2. The only
possible exception might be Macedonia vs Greece, but I don't thinks
that's yet on the horizon.

[*] Mideast: 4 (no change from 2014) - With active wars in Syria, Iraq
and Yemen, and possibly Libya, I would have to agree.

[*] Russia Caucasus: 3 (no change from 2014) - Agree

[*] Kashmir: 2 (no change from 2014) - I would raise Kashmir to 3 and
possibly even to 4. This is the epicenter of war between Pakistan and
India, and it could explode.

[*] China: 3 (no change from 2014) -- Yeah, seems reasonable. The
military action in the South China Sea keeps it from going to a 2.

[*] North Korea: 4 (+2 from 2014) -- Agree

[*] Financial: 3 (no change from 2014) -- Agree.

[*] Swine/Bird flu/Ebola: I would go with a 2 on this. I was really
impressed with the international response to Ebola that stopped it in
its tracks, which I hadn't expected would happen. We've also seem
several flu pandemics get stopped in their tracks. So I no longer
believe that disease will trigger a world war. Instead, I now believe
that it will happen the other way around -- the war will start,
breaking down international medical controls, and that will result in
a pandemic.[/list]

Now the only thing left is for me to do find the time to do the work
to update the actual chart.
Here is my own response:

W. Europe: I actually think Western Europe should stay at a 3. The reason why is because while Western Europe as a region more closely resembles a 2, Eastern Europe (minus Russia) is essentially a Western European colony through the European Union. What happens in Eastern Europe is most certainly the business of Western Europe, especially Germany. Growing tensions between Poland, Germany, and Russia, as well as the crises in Macedonia and Ukraine warrant Europe in general being a 3, in my humble opinion.

Mideast: The Middle East is definitely a 4.

Russia Caucasus: Definitely should stay at a 3. And with growing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes up to a 4 within the next five years.

Kashmir: Definitely should be moved up to a 3. The only reason this region isn't a 4 is because of great restraint between the countries that it encompasses.

China: Definitely should stay at a 3. And I wouldn't be surprised if it goes up to a 4 within the next five years.

North Korea: Definitely should be moved up to a 3. The only reason this region isn't a 4 is because of great restraint between the countries that it encompasses.

Financial: Agree that it should stay a 3.

Diseases: Agree that it should be moved down to a 2.

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