Geopolitical topics

[John]

Many web log topics are about the world's slide into the Clash of
Civilizations world war. Discuss it here.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/forum

[Matt1989]

In light of recent events, it appears that a financial crisis is going to catalyze the regeneracy phase of the 4T for most countries. With this in mind, I find it hard to believe that a war with China is anywhere near certain. The country is a basket case: its leaders are paranoid, the populace is restless, and the economy is primed for a hard landing. In the event of an economic disaster, China would certainly face a explosive crackup coupled with mass starvation, infighting, and a brutal civil war, claiming tens (hundreds?) of millions of lives.

While one can't rule out the Chinese engaging the U.S. (or vice versa), the chances of China fighting a multi-pronged war in the face of such a fracture is slimmer than hinted in the weblog.

[btmiller]

I think that if China does crack up, it is very possible that the USA gets drawn into the conflict somehow, particularly if one of the factions decides to go after Taiwan. It's also possible forthe US to get drawn in indirectly (e.g. if Japan or Russia become involved in the conflict). During a crisis (or at least the initial stages thereof), cooler heads tend not to prevail, and I could easily see the American leadership getting panicky about a civil war in a country with a significant number of nuclear weapons. Therefore, I don't necessarily see the "Chinese civil war" and "Sino-American War" scenarios as being incompatible.

[John]

> Therefore, I don't necessarily see the "Chinese civil war" and
> "Sino-American War" scenarios as being incompatible.

Not only are they NOT incompatible, each one is actually a
consequence of the other.

A Chinese civil war would begin to destabilize the Communist Chinese
Party (CCP), and the CCP would react by stoking nationalistic
anti-Japan tendencies, as they did in 2005. Japan is an American
ally, leading to a Sino-American war.

** Chinese rage at Japan grows - fear of uncontrolled rioting
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?xct=gd.e050416#e050416


Conversely, a war over Taiwan would quickly electrify the fault lines
that led to the Taiping Rebellion in the 1850s-60s and the Communist
Revolution in the 1930s-40s, leading to a new civil war.

** China approaches Civil War
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?d=ww2010.i.china050116

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/forum

[Golden Fox]

You are right regarding China, Xenakis. More then 3.75 Million Chinese take part in almost 75,000 violent protests a year, according to 2005 figures http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/09/AR2005080901323.html and some of them can get pretty huge, I bet it's higher now. The People's Liberation Army is having trouble keeping a lid on these protests, and it's clear China will play a part in the crisis.

[limbus]

How do people think the war will be fought? Massive thermonuclear/small nuclear then conventional/conventional with frequent use of nukes...?

[Matt1989]

How do people think the war will be fought? Massive thermonuclear/small nuclear then conventional/conventional with frequent use of nukes...?

It's pretty much a given that nukes are going to be used somewhere (the most likely candidate is India/Pakistan), but the majority of fighting is going to be in a 4GW context.

[John]

A question from a web site reader:

> A question for you: Have you heard or give stock to the formation
> of a North American Union? If so, is it impossible, possible or
> otherwise?

I guess anything is possible during a Recovery era following the end
of the Clash of Civilizations world war, but I wouldn't expect it,
because Latinos, Americans, British and French would not be be
comfortable in the same country.

> You know if this is true, then the US gets away with the biggest
> pillferage of the people ever.....

I have no idea what this means.

John

[John]

> I went through the draft of the "Generational Dynamics for
> Historians", very quickly and find that the focus is very
> euro-centric, and the results of the spill over this culture into
> US. The US is a multicultural society and there are quite a few
> eastern influences that are creeping into the US Culture. Examples
> will be the success of Japanese US Automobile Factories using US
> labor, the adaption of Japanese Manufacturing Management
> Techniques by US Manufacturing Companies such as Boeing, Ford, GM,
> GE etc., the use of Yoga and Medication for stress-relief, the use
> of eastern pharmacopeia in medicine and beauty products, the
> increasing focus on Vegetarian/Vegan diets for maintaining good
> health and so on.

> May I therefore suggest that you may want look at the current and
> future influences of Eastern Cultures in Generational Dynamics.

I haven't worked on "Generational Dynamics for Historians" for three
years now, but the purpose of that book was to provide a rigorous
foundation for Generational Dynamics, not to analyze cultures around
the world.

My first book, "Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's
Destiny," covers nations around the world, and the web site
http://GenerationalDynamics.com contains over 1,100 articles, giving
generational analyses and timelines for dozens of countries.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/forum

=eod
=send 3

[John]

-- Dalai Lama changing position on China

There's a little reported story that may have important significance
in a month or so.

The Dalai Lama is changing his position from one of being almost
totally accommodating to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to being
increasingly confrontational.

http://www.asianews.it/index.php?l=en&art=13623&size=A

He's complaining that the CPP have been persecuting Tibetans much
more than in the past, and that negotiations have been a failure. He
hints that he may call for Tibetan independence at a meeting of
Tibetan exiles at the end of November.

Ironically, this would do little to stir up the Tibetans, since
they're in a generational Unraveling era. The most you could expect
from them would be a few demonstrations.

But the CCP, with the most paranoid politicians on earth, will get
VERY stirred up, and may overreact.

China has been on very good behavior in the lead-up to the Beijing
Olympics, but those restrictions are now removed, and there's a good
chance that the paranoia will show itself again, in one way or
another.

Sincerely,

John