Kiev government finds itself in a Military trap

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Reality Check
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Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:07 pm

Kiev government finds itself in a Military trap

Postby Reality Check » Mon Apr 14, 2014 6:39 pm

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It has become apparent that there are, at best, limited military and police units that will enter Eastern Ukraine and actually use force against Pro-Moscow militias and the Ukrainian Civilian protestors who support the Pro-Moscow militias.
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Most of those units are likely National Guard Units from Western and Central Ukraine. Civilian militia units from Kiev and Western Ukraine might also be willing to fight, die and kill for the cause.
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Ukraine has already learned that it will require overwhelming numbers to defeat the Russian Special forces, even if the Russian regular army does not intervene. The small militia units, apparently manned by Russian special forces with no insignia, have proven more than a match for Ukrainian special forces units.
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If Ukraine sends in tanks and air craft to support their troops, their will be pictures of, shot down Ukrainian planes, burned out Ukrainian tanks, captured Ukrainian soldiers, all around burned out public buildings of Eastern Ukraine and it will appear, the buildings and dead civilians nearby, were attacked by the "Invading western Ukrainian army." Even if the Russian special forces are overwhelmed in most areas they will win some battles and such pictures will exist.

If Ukraine sends large numbers of it's most loyal troops, the ones willing to fight and die, into the remote maze of rivers that is the extreme Eastern portion of Ukraine where cities are being captured by pro-Russian militias, these troops will be easily cutoff there, and bypassed by tank units invading from the North East borders, and Northern borders of Ukraine, and invading from Crimea. The most loyal and willing to fight and die will not be available to defend Kiev bridges or other key locations within Central and Western Ukraine.
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There is one additional risk to the Kiev government, the regular army may not be willing to fight and the National Guard units and the Militias may not be up to the task of defeating even the small numbers of Russian special forces in the pro-Russian militias. If Ukraine does not send forces in, or if it does and they will not, or can not, do the job, then the interim Ukrainian government may simply collapse because it is incapable of exercising control over it's own country.

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