Why Russia will NOT attack Eastern Ukraine

[Reality Check]

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Western analysts have continued to predict that the massive Leviathan Force that Moscow has built up North and North East of Ukraine will be used to attack the pro-Russian Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk, Kharkiv and Luhansk, if it is used at all.

Such an attack on Donetsk, Kharkiv and Luhansk from the Northern border of Ukraine WILL NOT HAPPEN for many reasons:

1. The geography of the approach to those Provinces from the North and Northwest is not favorable to a tank army. It is the kind of country a mechanized army might get bogged down in. Big expense for little gain.

2. These three provinces are full of Moscow's allies in Ukraine, the last thing Moscow wants to do is have a battle against mutual enemies, where the families of your allies live. It makes much more sense to draw your enemies forces out of those areas to protect other areas of Ukraine, and force them to do battle, if they insist on doing battle and dieing, in areas where the collateral damage will be your enemies homes and families.

3. The constituent parts of Moscow's leviathan army, and the location of this army on Ukraine's northern and northeaster border, is suitable for sweeping from the Northeast, to the Southwest, down the Eastern European Plain and kicking down the front door of central Ukraine at the Kiev bridges across the D'nieper river.

4. Any attack on Kiev from the Northeast would provide the Ukrainian military forces in the Eastern part of Ukraine with a stark choice. Move north onto the Eastern European Plain to challenge the Russian attack on Kiev and allow the Russian forces to destroy the Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine with air-power, using airplanes based on nearby airfields just north and east of the battlefield , in Russia, or hide while Moscow attacks your capital city of Kiev.

5. Any battles that occur, will occur either in open country, or in the area where the families of Moscow's enemies in Ukraine live.

6. The premise for the military movement into Ukraine and toward Kiev would be going to the assistance of ethnic Russians in Moldova. Russian military occupation forces, in the Trans-D'niester region of Moldova, have been cut off from supply and reinforcements by the Ukrainians and Romanians. Ukrainian military forces might just step aside and allow Russia to drive a huge tank army, along with supply trains, across the bridges at Kiev, passing through Kiev, but not engaging in battle in Kiev.

7. Regardless of how Moscow's leviathan force, with supplies, reaches the portion of the Eastern European Plain southwest of Kiev. This would be a huge military win for Moscow. Such a Russian tank army would be able to dictate the surrender of Odesa and Southern Ukraine to Moscow's forces approaching Odesa from Crimea overland and from the sea, opening up two supply lines to Russian forces in South Central Ukraine (the tank army) and the Russian occupation forces in Moldova. This would transform the military situation in Ukraine and Moldova overnight. Moscow's other forces would gain all Ukraine's naval bases on the Black Sea. This tank force would gain control of the Soviet era airfield that is near the southwest end of the Eastern European Plain. Once re-supplied by sea and reinforced, this leviathan force would be able to prevent movements of Ukrainian forces out of western Ukraine, and would allow Russia to threaten Kiev from both the Southwest and Northeast at the same time.

8. This force would threaten the supply lines of all Ukrainian forces in all parts of Ukraine east or south of the Eastern European plain.

9. Ukrainians in the pro-Russian parts of eastern Ukraine, both in the Ukrainian military and civilians, could be motivated to join the pro-Russian Ukrainians in the political and military battle to control both Kiev and the country of Ukraine.

10. Up to two thirds of the Ukrainian military in Crimea elected to stay in Crimea and join the pro-Russian forces. Moscow picking a fight with those Ukrainian military personnel stationed in Donetsk, Kharkiv and Luhansk provinces is neither militarily necessary nor good politics.

[John]

So you've changed your mind from last week?