Iraq Civil War's first major battle brewing in early 2013

[Reality Check]

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy ... 360959907/

Tens of thousands of Kurdish and Iraqi regular troops ( estimates are 30,000 battle hardened troops on each side ) are squaring off over oil fields on disputed lands in Kurdistan near Kirkuk, in Northern Iraq.

Failure of the Maliki government to block exploration and drilling by Exxon under the authority of the Kurdish regional government, in defiance of the Shia controlled Maliki federal government, will be a public announcement to the world that the central government in Baghdad is not the sovereign government of Iraq with control of all oil resources.

The Kurds in Iraq, with help from former enemy Turkey, are supporting anti-government forces in Syria. By contrast the Maliki federal government in Baghdad and Maliki's supporters in Iran are supporting the Syrian government.

For the above reasons, and others, it appears likely that Iragi government regular army troops will attempt to occupy the disputed oil leases on lands claimed by, and currently controlled by, the regional Kurdish government in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Such a move is seen by most observers as prompting a military conflict with the estimated 30,000 strong, battle hardened, U.S. trained, Kurdish militia and Kurdish special forces ( Iraqi Army special forces units lead and manned by Kurds ) deployed on the high ground around those oil fields and on the high ground around the Iraqi regular army bases near Kirkuk, from which the Iraqi troops must deploy.

Kurdish forces will need to defeat the Iraqi regular army forces and force the Iraqi regular army to withdrawal all major forces near Kirkuk if Exxon and others are to believe the Kurds can protect them from the Iraqi army. The Iraq army must only demonstrated the credible capability to prevent Exxon and others from making profits in the Kurdistan region of Iraq without the protection of the Iraqi federal government ( in addition to, or instead of ) protection from Kurdish regional government.

Both potential sides have seen victory in battle supported by overwhelming U.S. air power, U.S. intelligence, and U.S. logistical supply. The outcome of such a battle is not predictable at this time.

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy ... 360959907/