Greek Elections

[mooreupp]

You can see a good update of the results here: http://www.igraphics.gr/en/multimedia/2 ... tions2012b

New Democracy seems pretty certain to get a plurality at this point, but that's not really all the important unless they can form a coalition. The projected totals so far in the 300 member Parliment are:

New Dawn: 130
SYRIZA: 70
PASOK: 33
Independent Greeks: 20
Golden Dawn: 19
Dimar 16
KKE: 12

Since most these parties are anti-bailout, it makes any type of coalition very difficult. I was assuming that New Dawn and PASOK would go back into a coalition with each other, but PASOK has apparently said they only want to be in a coalition if it also includes SYRIZA. If PASOK sticks to that and if SYRIZA is unwilling to soften themselves on austerity (both big ifs) then this election may yet again fail to give us a government.

I think PASOK will ultimately stick to their word as the alternative gives SYRIZA a better chance to permanently take over as the new main leftist party (they don't want to be the junior partner to New Dawn while SYRIZA is busy criticizing the government). SYRIZA leaders though might make some concessions in exchange for some from the EU.

Of course in the end, the end result is default no matter what.

[John]

So with the 50 extra seats, ND has a majority. Is that right?

John

[mooreupp]

So with the 50 extra seats, ND has a majority. Is that right?

John

No that includes the extra 50 votes. New Dawn isn't going to get a majority straight up. They'll have to form a coalition and it's not going to be easy. Independent Greeks are right wing, but formed as against the loans so they're probably out. I think they really are going to need PASOK to get a government and I'm not sure they can get them without SYRIZA.

P.S. I really like your website.

[mooreupp]

With 93% of the vote in, the projections are about the same.

New Dawn: 129
SYRIZA: 71
PASOK: 33
Independent Greeks: 20
Golden Dawn: 18
Dimar 17
KKE: 12

So at this point, I guess there are 3 possibilities:

1. PASOK decides (possibly after a little delaying and attention) that "for the good of the country" they have to make a coalition government with New Dawn "to keep Greece in Europe."
2. SYRIZA gets a bit more nervous about being quite as demanding and is willing to accept the good fortune of being in government. It and PASOK join New Dawn in a government.
3. No compromise is reached and another election is set for August. July is very interesting.

I do tend to agree very much with the "kick the can" theory as it's something everyone has been doing for a long time. That said, in this case, I could see any of the outcomes as possible.

[Trevor]

So they haven't yet decided whether or not to stay in the eurozone?

[gerald]

An indicator of the collective deterioration in Greek society and it's economy. How bad is it going to get? --- The Price Of “Collective Trauma”: Greece At The Brink of Civil War---

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... -civil-war