Clash of Civilizations

[Trevor]

When reading on the Generational Dynamics web site and seeing the discussion, it was mentioned that the September 11th attacks could have led to a third world war and the Clash of Civilizations. My question is: why didn't it? The event seems to have mostly fizzled out, and I can't see the attack, horrible as it was, causing it. The anger was pretty trivial compared to the Pearl Harbor attack, even though I consider the attack to be even worse.

[Marc]

Good question, Trevor. As per what I gather regarding a mostly generational analysis here, the 9/11 attacks on the United States were "limited-scale" attacks carried out by terrorists as opposed to attacks carried out by a nation or nations per se, and perhaps even more importantly, the country being attacked was essentially in a Third Turning mood (although I know that John puts the beginning of the Crisis period at the year 2000, at the time of the Nasdaq crash). America was still, to quote Prince, wanting to "party like it's 1999," with President Bush encouraging Americans to defy the terrorists in part by going shopping. Thus, given the actors involved, the shocking but "limited" damage (even if it was worse damage-wise than the Pearl Harbor attack), and the national mood involved, the response to the 9/11 attack was rather Third Turning in nature: a somewhat muddled response without solid consensus or follow-through, and far short of what one would expect in a total-war situation.

I think that that best explains it; if someone else has a better explanation, it is very welcome. Thanks again for the thought-provoking question. —Best regards, Marc

[Trevor]

The decision to enter Afghanistan may have been mostly supported, but once we did, it didn't take more than a few weeks for the media to raise the specter of Vietnam. That doesn't sound like a crisis war or crisis period.

What's coming to my mind is the possibility that our defeat in Vietnam is one of the reasons why it didn't explode. Even non-crisis wars can have a strong effect on a country, particularly if you are humiliated, as we were; another comparison would be Germany in the First World War. While Germany became more aggressive with a desire for revenge, especially when the Depression set in, the United States went down the opposite path. we've been more reluctant to begin anything that lasted more than a few weeks.

The September 11th attacks may have been able to spark a world war, but it's also a spark that seems to have mostly fizzled out. Back when she was still alive, I talked with my grandmother about the comparisons between the WTC attacks and Pearl Harbor and she just told me "There is no comparison". Granted, we've done some things in a similar fashion, but nowhere on the scale that we did after December 7.

[taratari]

The decision to enter Afghanistan may have been mostly supported, but once we did, it didn't take more than a few weeks for the media to raise the specter of Vietnam. That doesn't sound like a crisis war or crisis period.

I agree with you friend. Thanks for the post.

[sarahS4621]

When reading on the Generational Dynamics web site and seeing the discussion, it was mentioned that the September 11th attacks could have led to a third world war and the Clash of Civilizations. My question is: why didn't it? The event seems to have mostly fizzled out, and I can't see the attack, horrible as it was, causing it. The anger was pretty trivial compared to the Pearl Harbor attack, even though I consider the attack to be even worse.

I can't say that the response was trivial, we did have a very strong reaction...but unlike during the world war where it was an unusual occurance and therefore more objectional, it is sadly expected in this day and age. And luckily for us, it has become so commonplace that the countries of the world have no problem banding together to swiftly take care of the problem.

[Trevor]

I can't say that the response was trivial, we did have a very strong reaction...but unlike during the world war where it was an unusual occurance and therefore more objectional, it is sadly expected in this day and age. And luckily for us, it has become so commonplace that the countries of the world have no problem banding together to swiftly take care of the problem.

Yes, compared to the attacks that took place in the 1990's. Compared to what we did after Pearl Harbor, there's no comparison. It took maybe a couple months in Afghanistan for people to start screaming "quagmire" and I didn't see a whole lot of unity.

[John]

Dear Trevor,

> When reading on the Generational Dynamics web site and seeing the
> discussion, it was mentioned that the September 11th attacks could
> have led to a third world war and the Clash of Civilizations. My
> question is: why didn't it? The event seems to have mostly fizzled
> out, and I can't see the attack, horrible as it was, causing
> it. The anger was pretty trivial compared to the Pearl Harbor
> attack, even though I consider the attack to be even
> worse.

I've been meaning to respond to this, but keep forgetting.

America was in a state of shock on September 11. President Bush
immediately declared war on Afghanistan, and told the rest of the
world, "You're either with us or against us." This is Crisis era
stuff.

The Afghanistan war didn't spiral into a full-scale crisis war
because the Afghans were too weak. They were in a generational
Recovery era, and had no will to fight. So their side collapsed
in a matter of weeks.

Now imagine a different scenario: Suppose that Osama bin Laden,
who had been living among the Taliban in Afghanistan, had instead
had been living among the Uighurs in northwest China. Suppose
we had told China what we told Afghanistan: Turn him over to
us, or else. That might well have spiraled into a full
scale generational crisis war.

John

[Antonio]

Not at all the same thing the attack off 9/11 was'nt made by a nation but by an unknown person with an unknown territory! even that we know that it was made but Oussama Ben Laden ! but nobody knows whow and for what !

[hunterG7343]

You can't be so sure that it was Oussama. There are a lots of conspiracy theories, including the one credit card processing that it was a work of the American government. We need to understand the power of propaganda that every government can use.

[gerald]

I guess the Chinese have another reason to go after the west. --- They will have to punish those Chinese kleotocrats.

"More than a million public servants have sent large sums abroad."

"That officials create huge amounts abroad and then flee with their families is so common that the Chinese language has its own term: "Luo guan" literally "bare squad".

"In 2011, the Central Bank reported that corrupt officials had transferred more than 120 billion U.S. dollars abroad."

"Popular flight destinations for fleeing officials are the USA, Australia and Canada"

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... ng-thieves

As a side note, when visiting a portion of the Great Wall our guide pointed out that each individual brick ( not the stone blocks ) composing the Great Wall had the name of it's maker-- to insure the brick's quality.
The maker of poor quality bricks was dealt with accordingly. --- The more things change, the more they stay the same.