China

Topics related to current and historical events occurring in various countries and regions
John
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Re: China

Post by John »

Dear Humphrey,
humphreyhawksley wrote: > I am reading American Notes by Charles Dickens on his journey
> there in 1842. At the time, there was general critiscism in Europe
> of the way America conducted itself -- the rebellious offspring
> from the colonial mother country -- with slavery being an obvious
> target. The 'New World' carried much ideological baggage and
> writers such as Trollope described America as 'that great
> experiment with democracy' -- democracy then being a concept more
> perjorative than advocated. I sense a similar, yet reverse,
> sentiment now with China. It has embarked upon a massive social
> experiment, the mechanisms of which are frowned upon by most in
> our own societies. But in the past year or so with issues such as
> the economic crisis, climate change and the development of Africa,
> we are beginning to become fascinated in the way China does
> things.
I'm a little taken aback by the comparison of 1840s America to
today's China, but actually, from the point of view of Generational
Dynamics, the comparison may be quite apt.

In both cases we have a late generational Unraveling /
post-unraveling era. That's when the survivors of the last crisis
war are disappearing, and the younger generations are making the same
kinds of mistakes that created the preceding crisis. Political
bickering increases, government becomes paralyzed, and compromises
are increasingly rare.

The U.S. managed to hold off the civil war for almost 20 more years,
largely through the efforts of some great "Unionists," older
survivors of the Revolutionary War period who were still alive, and
who placed the Union above the political issues.

China is trying to hold off a massive civil war, as groups in Tibet,
Xinjiang and Taiwan press for self-government, or even independence.
China has a history of massive rebellions (White Lotus rebellion,
Taiping Rebellion, Communist Revolution), and the time is ripe for a
new one. With over 100,000 "mass incidents" per year, China may not
be able to hold it off for one year, let alone 20 years.

A big difference between America in 1842 and China today is that
America was completely isolated, separated from Europe (and Asia) by
large oceans. (There was only one American war during that period,
the Mexican-American war, but the smaller Mexican army was easily
defeated.) Combine this isolation with the fact that America had no
history of civil war, and you can put together a case for why America
avoided the Civil War for so long.

China has none of those advantages. To the contrary, China's
military is actively preparing for war with the U.S. China also has
clients in central Asia, especially Pakistan. China and Japan are
always just one false move away from war. So China is not isolated
at all.

** China approaches Civil War
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... hina050116


** China's plans for war with America
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 01#e060501


On the other hand, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao are both civil war
survivors, and they're leading the CCP to do everything possible to
avoid a new civil war, just like the "Unionists" in the U.S.

And so, returning to your original point, I agree with you, but
perhaps not in the way you meant. The Europeans were curious to see
whether the Union would survive, though they did not feel militarily
threatened by the U.S. (especially after the War of 1812 fiasco).

Many Americans today would be unable to find China on a map, but
among those who actually know something about China, the level of
distrust is very high, and the fascination that we have with China's
social experiments is over the question of when the worst is going to
happen.

John

Amon
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Joined: Sun Feb 22, 2009 3:30 pm

Re: China

Post by Amon »

I understand if this should belong in the Financial section of these forums instead of here, but I don't feel comfortable posting there.

Krugman: World Out of Balance

Oh God, how many things are wrong with this analysis? Again, I admit that I am nowhere near well-versed enough in things to get it right tearing this apart, but Krugman is making the mistake of basing this argument off the false belief that the financial crisis is abating. Sure, he gets it right when he says that international travel by world leaders is about little more than symbolic gestures - a clear sign of paralysis - but as for everything else... ugh. I still don't get how these "experts" can be so damn stupid.

siginah
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2009 12:36 am
Location: Singapore

Re: China

Post by siginah »

John wrote:
** China approaches Civil War
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... hina050116


** China's plans for war with America
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 01#e060501


On the other hand, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao are both civil war
survivors, and they're leading the CCP to do everything possible to
avoid a new civil war, just like the "Unionists" in the U.S.

[...]

John
Speaking of avoiding civil war and planning for a war with the USA, those who can read Chinese may want to consider reading the following book: Taiwan Disaster 2012. It is about how the PRC plans to take back Taiwan, which is deemed by Hu Jintao as a necessary first step towards extending the PRC's global influence in Socialism's end-game battle against Capitalism.

mannfm11
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Location: DFW Texas
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Re: China

Post by mannfm11 »

Good post just before Christmas John. I have been talking about China for some time. You go to pivotcapital.com and they have a really good report. I believe this will be the major force in the deflationary pressures that the world seems to believe they have postponed. There seems to be an idea that you can put every Chinese over there on a production line and produce goods for an over extended world. The Pivot Capital report makes clear that the urban growth in China is more advanced than thought, that the capacity to produce goods is more mature than some may believe and that a bust is coming. My contention, having lived in Dallas during the 1978-1986 period, where I would estimate 50% of currently existing warehouse and office space in the Dallas area was built, the demise of the business is going to be huge. Being China is expanding at this pace with nothing being leased or occupied is right on track. The DFW overbuilding took down plenty of banks and S&L's and busted a lot of development companies. The traffic on the highways diminished significantly once the bust happened. I would venture the mineral extraction business worldwide goes in a 20 year depression when this bust becomes apparent. Building capacity and developing real estate in China might be the worlds biggest business, from 90 to zero in 2 days. This is another Dubai waiting to happen, except on a massively larger scale.

shoshin
Posts: 211
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 4:05 pm

Re: China

Post by shoshin »

an investment "guru" says that China's bubble will burst...

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/08/busin ... l?emc=eta1

siginah
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2009 12:36 am
Location: Singapore

Re: China

Post by siginah »

John,

I recently came across this old article that you wrote 6 years ago:

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... iwan040823

As a Chinese Singaporean, I would like to offer a slightly different perspective.

Much as I hate to contradict my own prime minister, Singapore's support for the PRC in a conflict with the US over ROC/Taiwan may not be that clear cut.

While Singapore is 75% ethnic Chinese, we have little natural affinity towards the PRC. Furthermore, while the PRC is important to the Singapore economy, we are dependent on Malaysia and Indonesia for our basic resources, including water, food and natural gas (for electrical power generation). In terms of trade, we are dependent on the Straits of Malacca being trouble-free, and that's controlled essentially by both Malaysia and Indonesia. As such, Singapore may need to think carefully and consider the positions of both Indonesia and Malaysia before taking sides.

As for our links with the US, that shows up in different ways. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, Singapore was one of the countries selected by the US Federal Reserve for its currency-swap arrangements. It was also rumoured that our sovereign wealth funds were requested to buy into Merrill Lynch and Citigroup in the depths of the crisis by the US to shore up confidence in the US financial system. And we rebuilt a naval base years ago to accommodate US aircraft carriers. As such, in a conflict involving the US, there could be pressure from Uncle Sam on us as well.

Felix34
Posts: 28
Joined: Fri Mar 12, 2010 8:48 pm

Re: China

Post by Felix34 »

John, I recall you making a blog about how civil war was a possibility if older generations win out against younger generations during an awakening. Do you think that China is heading for a civil war in the future? Realistically? Also, do you think that if we ever engage in a crisis war with China, that this would actually help us win the crisis war against China? (Considering internal weaknesses due to civil unrest and an unwillingness to fight.) This could cause the "little Emperor" generation to grow up to be an artist archetype because any crisis war with them in the 2010s and 20s would come too early. They're behind us by nearly a decade or so, or am I wrong on this? (Their last crisis war was the civil war in 49, this would make them much younger.) If this is the case, can a civil war still occur if this generation grows up to be cynical?

David_Cl
Posts: 2
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2011 12:15 am

Re: China

Post by David_Cl »

John,
I wonder how you link the Tiananmen Square demonstrations and the rise of the Falun Gong. My wife is native Chinese (moved here in 2004, born in 68) and has experiences with both groups. One of her closest friends was there at the democracy rally. The internal censors of the government are almost universally able to stop all mention or reference to the events of June 4, 1989. All schools, newspapers, internet, and books have erased the event within China. My wife did not know the full extent of what happened or ever see a single video of the event until she came to the US. The communication from those who were there to describe to others around them has an extremely limited ability to convey what happened. [Without the pictures, videos, and reporting of what happened at Ohio State with the National Guard in the 60s would America believed it was possible?]
How can Falun Gong be a response to something that is unknown? The college age demonstrators are a different generation than the Falun Gong members. In fact, the Falun Gong society was initially of their parent's generation ( born in 40's). My wife's mother was briefly a member of a sister organization. When the government said it was a determent to society, she left the group. It is only recent, since 2000, that the younger generation (born in the late 80s) has been attracted to join. The leadership of the FG has a very strong controlling influence over the members. A conservative estimate places around 100,000 members who gave everything they had to the organization and then committed suicide. The Chinese government believes this the result of hypnosis or brainwashing. The CCP sees this both as a threat to influence of government and a danger to civil unrest. Naturally, the threat must be stamped out.
I believe the current threat to China comes from the only child generation. Being raise very spoiled and the center of attention of families, they are accustom to getting what they want and achieving a world class standard of living. They will be the ones who continually push for more financial reforms and more say the governing of their own lives. I believe that the party leadership in the government will let go of communism before they will let go of power.

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: China

Post by John »

Dear David,

Welcome to the forum.

I haven't been to China and don't know a lot about the dynamics of
Chinese society, but I do know that a lot of people know something
about the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre -- even if it's only a
single thing, such as, "The government massacred thousands of
ordinary students."

The Tiananmen Square massacre was not unknown to the thousands of
students who were in Beijing at the time, or to the millions of people
whom the students informed by word of mouth, or to the people who
founded the Falun Gong movement.

The whole point of the spiritual movement of the followers of the
Falun Gong was to express a kind of "silent protest," within the
strict rules imposed by Beijing. They were protesting the massacre
without ever having to say a word about the massacre. Older people
would get together to meditate and do exercises. By 1999, the
spiritual movement had become so hugely popular that Beijing became
alarmed, and declared that practicing the Falun Gong was illegal.
Rumors have it that millions of Chinese have been jailed or tortured
or executed for simply for doing the equivalent of Richard Simmons
exercises.

The fact that something doesn't appear in school textbooks doesn't
mean that people, especially older people, don't remember it. In
a way, that's what Generational Dynamics is all about.

John

Trevor
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Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: China

Post by Trevor »

According to the latest research I've done, the "mass incidents" has increased this year to around 180,000. That seems an almost unimaginable number, especially since in 1994, the numbers were only around 7,000.

How much longer can this continue before one of them spirals too far out of control?

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