Japan's generational history

Topics related to current and historical events occurring in various countries and regions
Post Reply
jmm1184
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Dec 24, 2010 11:02 pm

Japan's generational history

Post by jmm1184 »

I've run into a problem with the GD model, involving Japan's history.

Japan's recent generational history is very apparent, with the previous two crisis wars being WWII and the Meiji Restoration. But before the Meiji Restoration Japan experienced over 200 years of peace, with no wars or major rebellions. The previous crisis war to the Meiji Restoration appears to be the Shimabara Rebellion, which ended with thousands of rebel Samurai and Christians slaughtered, and Christianity driven completely underground and for all intents and purposes annihilated in Japan. This also marked the beginning of Japan closing itself off from the rest of the world for the next 200 years.

According to GD theory, there should be at least two crisis wars in between the Shimabara rebellion and the Meiji Restoration, yet so far I have not been able to identify any.

Has anyone done in-depth research into this period of Japanese History (Tokugawa Shogunate/Edo Period), and if so, are there any crisis wars that I am missing?

Hintergrund
Posts: 14
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:29 am

Re: Japan's generational history

Post by Hintergrund »

Japan was in self-chosen isolation for centuries. Maybe when admiral Peary forced them to open up, he dragged them out of their generational cycle and forced them into the western one.

James Clavell writes in "Gai-Jin" that every few decades, some shogun negated all the debt the samurai had, crushing the economy. Sounds like a typical crisis in a unified but isolated country.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Japan's generational history

Post by John »

jmm1184 wrote: > I've run into a problem with the GD model, involving Japan's
> history.

> Japan's recent generational history is very apparent, with the
> previous two crisis wars being WWII and the Meiji Restoration. But
> before the Meiji Restoration Japan experienced over 200 years of
> peace, with no wars or major rebellions. The previous crisis war
> to the Meiji Restoration appears to be the Shimabara Rebellion,
> which ended with thousands of rebel Samurai and Christians
> slaughtered, and Christianity driven completely underground and
> for all intents and purposes annihilated in Japan. This also
> marked the beginning of Japan closing itself off from the rest of
> the world for the next 200 years.

> According to GD theory, there should be at least two crisis wars
> in between the Shimabara rebellion and the Meiji Restoration, yet
> so far I have not been able to identify any.

> Has anyone done in-depth research into this period of Japanese
> History (Tokugawa Shogunate/Edo Period), and if so, are there any
> crisis wars that I am missing?
I don't know nearly as much about Japan as you do, but I spent a
little time reading some of the history.

Everyone seems to describe the "Tokugawa shogunate: 1603-1868" as a
time of great peace among the Japanese states, as opposed to the
preceding 200 years, when the states were constantly at war with each
other.

It's really not possible for any country to be at peace for 268 years,
unless nobody had any children during that period. Kids are going to
grow up, populations are going to outgrow the boundaries assigned to
them, there are going to be shortages of food and water from the
growing population, and there are going to be local conflicts
spiraling into war, and so forth. So I would interpret 268 years of
peace as 268 years of hiding wars from the outside world.

So all one can do is look for clues. Here are a couple of pages that
I looked at:

http://www.historyworld.net/wrldhis/Pla ... track=pthc

A general description of the Tokugawa shogunate - not much help, but
a few clues.


https://www.nakasendoway.com/tokugawa-political-system/

Tokugawa Political System - more clues, including this paragraph:
> The Tokugawa shogunate was very much like any domainal government
> in that it was responsible first for the administration of a
> limited territory, the fief of the Tokugawa house. As such, it
> concerned itself with controlling the samurai class, collecting
> taxes (primarily on agriculture), maintaining civil order,
> defending the fief, controlling the cities, encouraging commerce
> and manufacturing which were required by the fief, limiting
> undesirable types of commerce and so on. In most domains, the
> scope of government was similar. In fact, as the Edo period wore
> on, most domains copied the system of the shogunate.
Here's an article that describes "the greatest battle in Japanese
history":

https://www.samurai-archives.com/ieyasu.html
> The Battle of Sekigahara opened on the misty morning of 21 October
> 1600 with as many as 160,000 warriors prepared to fight the
> greatest battle in Japanese history. The irony was that there had
> been no rhyme or reason to the choice of this particular
> battlefield. While Saito Dosan had once said that he who controls
> Sekigahara controls Japan, this was simply where the two sides had
> the most room to maneuver. At the same time, the terrain favored
> Ishida. Tokugawa was largely staggered out in a valley, with his
> forward units dangerously exposed to encirclement. The key was
> Kobayakawa Hideaki. His 16,000 men, positioned on Mt. Matsuo and
> looking down at the forward Ishida and Tokugawa lines, would
> likely decide the issue one way or the other.
If that's true, then the Shimabara rebellion would be an Awakening era
conflict. The rebellion apparently occurred in a relatively isolated
part of Japan, so it might also be a crisis war on a different
timeline.

That web site, https://www.samurai-archives.com/ seems to have a lot
of articles on Japanese military history, and may be worth checking
out.

Well, all the above may not be much help, but at least it's
interesting.

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Japan's generational history

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

The Edo Period (the "no wars" period) sounds rather like an authoritarian attempt at Utopia.

A GD analysis would probably show that the generational movements (phases) were played out in a modified form within this "pocket universe".



From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edo_period :

From the outset, the Tokugawa attempted to restrict families' accumulation of wealth and fostered a "back to the soil" policy, in which the farmer, the ultimate producer, was the ideal person in society.

Despite these efforts to restrict wealth and partly because of the extraordinary period of peace, the standard of living for urban and rural dwellers alike grew significantly during the Tokugawa period.
...

A struggle arose in the face of political limitations that the shōgun imposed on the entrepreneurial class. The government ideal of an agrarian society failed to square with the reality of commercial distribution. A huge government bureaucracy had evolved, which now stagnated because of its discrepancy with a new and evolving social order. Compounding the situation, the population increased significantly during the first half of the Tokugawa period.
...

Drought, followed by crop shortages and starvation, resulted in twenty great famines between 1675 and 1837. During the Tokugawa period, there were 154 famines, of which 21 were widespread and serious.[22] Peasant unrest grew, and by the late 18th century, mass protests over taxes and food shortages had become commonplace. Newly landless families became tenant farmers, while the displaced rural poor moved into the cities. As the fortunes of previously well-to-do families declined, others moved in to accumulate land, and a new, wealthy farming class emerged. Those people who benefited were able to diversify production and to hire laborers, while others were left discontented. Many samurai fell on hard times and were forced into handicraft production and wage jobs for merchants.
...

By the 1830s, there was a general sense of crisis. Famines and natural disasters hit hard, and unrest led to a peasant uprising against officials and merchants in Osaka in 1837. Although it lasted only a day, the uprising made a dramatic impression. Remedies came in the form of traditional solutions that sought to reform moral decay rather than address institutional problems. The shōgun's advisers pushed for a return to the martial spirit, more restrictions on foreign trade and contacts, suppression of rangaku, censorship of literature, and elimination of "luxury" in the government and samurai class. Others sought the overthrow of the Tokugawa and espoused the political doctrine of sonnō jōi (revere the emperor, expel the barbarians), which called for unity under imperial rule and opposed foreign intrusions.
...

1600: Battle of Sekigahara. Tokugawa Ieyasu defeats a coalition of daimyō and establishes hegemony over most of Japan.
1603: The emperor appoints Tokugawa Ieyasu as shōgun, who moves his government to Edo (Tokyo) and founds the Tokugawa dynasty of shōguns.
1605: Tokugawa Ieyasu resigns as shōgun and is succeeded by his son Tokugawa Hidetada.
1607: Korean Joseon dynasty sends an embassy to Tokugawa shogunate.
1611: Ryūkyū Islands become a vassal state of Satsuma Domain.
1614: Tokugawa Ieyasu bans Christianity from Japan.
1615: Battle of Osaka. Tokugawa Ieyasu besieges Osaka Castle, all opposition from forces loyal to the Toyotomi family. Tokugawa authority becomes paramount throughout Japan.
1616: Tokugawa Ieyasu dies.
1620: After Ieyasu dies the peasants and chōnins increase in population
1623: Tokugawa Iemitsu becomes the third shōgun.
1633: Iemitsu forbids travelling abroad and reading foreign books.
1635: Iemitsu formalizes the system of mandatory alternate residence (sankin-kōtai) in Edo.
1637: Shimabara Rebellion (1637–38) mounted by overtaxed peasants.
1638: Iemitsu forbids ship building.
1639: Edicts establishing National Seclusion (Sakoku Rei) are completed. All Westerners except the Dutch are prohibited from entering Japan.
1641: Iemitsu bans all foreigners, except Chinese and Dutch, from Japan.
1657: The Great Fire of Meireki destroys most of the city of Edo.
1700: Kabuki and ukiyo-e become popular.[clarification needed]
1707: Mount Fuji erupts.
1774: The anatomical text Kaitai Shinsho, the first complete Japanese translation of a Western medical work, is published by Sugita Genpaku and Maeno Ryotaku.
1787: Matsudaira Sadanobu becomes senior shogunal councillor and institutes the Kansei Reforms.
1792: Russian envoy Adam Laxman arrives at Nemuro in eastern Ezo (now Hokkaidō).
1804: Russian envoy Nikolai Rezanov reaches Nagasaki and unsuccessfully seeks the establishment of trade relations with Japan.
1837: Rebellion of Ōshio Heihachirō.
1841: Tenpō Reforms.
1854: The USA forces Japan to sign a trade agreement ("Treaty of Kanagawa") which reopens Japan to foreigners after two centuries.
1855: Russia and Japan establish diplomatic relations.
1864: British, French, Dutch and American warships bombard Shimonoseki and open more Japanese ports for foreigners.
1868: Tokugawa Yoshinobu resigns, the Tokugawa dynasty ends, and the emperor (or "mikado") Meiji is restored, but with capital in Edo/Tokyo and divine attributes.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests