What period is Venezuela in?

[DaKardii]

I can't see Venezuela being in anything other than deep in a crisis period right now. Do I even need to explain why? However, I'm no expert on Venezuelan history, so I want to hear from an expert.

What do you think, John?

[John]

> I can't see Venezuela being in anything other than deep in a
> crisis period right now. Do I even need to explain why? However,
> I'm no expert on Venezuelan history, so I want to hear from an
> expert.

> What do you think, John?

A couple of years ago, Nathan G pulled together a list of all the
crisis wars.

** Crisis lists, the complete collection

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=3409

Check this out. You'll find Venezuela, as well as a lot of other
countries.

[DaKardii]

A couple of years ago, Nathan G pulled together a list of all the
crisis wars.

** Crisis lists, the complete collection

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=3409

Check this out. You'll find Venezuela, as well as a lot of other
countries.

According to this list, Venezuela's last crisis war was La Violencia, which started in 1948 and ended in 1958. Assuming the lengths of turnings are about 20 years, 1960s and 1970s were a high period. The 1980s and 1990s were an awakening period. The 2000s and 2010s were/are an unraveling period. The 2020s and 2030s will be a crisis period. Give or take a small margin of error, this would place Venezuela at either the beginning of a crisis period, or very late into an unraveling period. Given the situation, I would argue the former.

[John]

> According to this list, Venezuela's last crisis war was La
> Violencia, which started in 1948 and ended in 1958. Assuming the
> lengths of turnings are about 20 years, 1960s and 1970s were a
> high period. The 1980s and 1990s were an awakening period. The
> 2000s and 2010s were/are an unraveling period. The 2020s and 2030s
> will be a crisis period. Give or take a small margin of error,
> this would place Venezuela at either the beginning of a crisis
> period, or very late into an unraveling period. Given the
> situation, I would argue the former.

Your post reminded me that in 2007 I wrote an article about
Venezuela's Unraveling era.

** Students riot against Hugo Chavez in Venezuela
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e070530

Today, ten years later, and 59 years after 1958, Venezuela would
be just at the beginning of its Crisis era.

[falopex]

> According to this list, Venezuela's last crisis war was La
> Violencia, which started in 1948 and ended in 1958. Assuming the
> lengths of turnings are about 20 years, 1960s and 1970s were a
> high period. The 1980s and 1990s were an awakening period. The
> 2000s and 2010s were/are an unraveling period. The 2020s and 2030s
> will be a crisis period. Give or take a small margin of error,
> this would place Venezuela at either the beginning of a crisis
> period, or very late into an unraveling period. Given the
> situation, I would argue the former.

Your post reminded me that in 2007 I wrote an article about
Venezuela's Unraveling era.

** Students riot against Hugo Chavez in Venezuela
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e070530

Today, ten years later, and 59 years after 1958, Venezuela would
be just at the beginning of its Crisis era.

I must concur with John. The economic collapse in Venezuela is quite analogous to America's Great Depression, albeit more severe. But where FDR offered hope to Americans, the Venezuelan government is increasingly seen as the cause of all the country's economic woes. I see them headed for a short, especially brutal Crisis Era culminating in a bloody Civil War and a completely new government.

[DaKardii]

I must concur with John. The economic collapse in Venezuela is quite analogous to America's Great Depression, albeit more severe. But where FDR offered hope to Americans, the Venezuelan government is increasingly seen as the cause of all the country's economic woes. I see them headed for a short, especially brutal Crisis Era culminating in a bloody Civil War and a completely new government.

Well, considering that the crisis began only a few years ago and there is talk about an American military intervention, either Venezuela is headed for a long civil war, or is headed towards an unusually short crisis period. Remember, according to Strauss-Howe, the United States once had a crisis period that lasted only five years (1860-1865), because the Civil War started about ten years too early, and therefore the country endured a third turning crisis war as opposed to a typical fourth turning crisis war.

[Trevor]

Well, considering that the crisis began only a few years ago and there is talk about an American military intervention, either Venezuela is headed for a long civil war, or is headed towards an unusually short crisis period. Remember, according to Strauss-Howe, the United States once had a crisis period that lasted only five years (1860-1865), because the Civil War started about ten years too early, and therefore the country endured a third turning crisis war as opposed to a typical fourth turning crisis war.[/

If you compare it to many other timelines, our civil war was actually fairly late. If you take Yorktown as the climax of the previous Crisis War, it's an 80-year gap between that and the Civil War, so it wasn't too early. I expect the reason that Strauss-Howe didn't find those what they describe as a "Hero" Generation is because of the nature of the war. No one really feels heroic and triumphant after a Civil War, even if they were on the winning side. Compared to the Civil War, we got off easy in World War II.

According to generational dynamics, the crisis period begins around 55-60 after the last war as a "Post-unraveling" period, so the United States actually entered a crisis era around 1840 or so. You could say it arrived earlier than "scheduled" had the civil war broke out in the 1830's.

[John]

Several years ago, I found a really interesting example that
illustrates how the country moved from an Unraveling to a Crisis era
in 1840.

The Crisis Era (Fourth Turning) begins when the previous Artist
generation completely loses influence in society, and that happens
almost unvaryingly and inexorably about 58 years after the climax of
the preceding crisis war. So WW II ended in 1945, and 58 years
later is 2003.

Here's an earlier example: The Revolutionary War climaxed in 1782, and
so the Fourth Turning Crisis era began 58 years later, in 1840.

In the 1840 time frame, here's an introductory description to
the Mexican-American war:

> The Mexican-American War (1846-1848) marked the first U.S. armed
> conflict chiefly fought on foreign soil. It pitted a politically
> divided and militarily unprepared Mexico against the
> expansionist-minded administration of U.S. President James
> K. Polk, who believed the United States had a “manifest destiny”
> to spread across the continent to the Pacific Ocean. A border
> skirmish along the Rio Grande started off the fighting and was
> followed by a series of U.S. victories. When the dust cleared,
> Mexico had lost about one-third of its territory, including nearly
> all of present-day California, Utah, Nevada, Arizona and New
> Mexico.

> Causes of the Mexican-American War

> Texas gained its independence from Mexico in 1836. Initially, the
> United States declined to incorporate it into the union, largely
> because northern political interests were against the addition of
> a new slave state. The Mexican government was also encouraging
> border raids and warning that any attempt at annexation would lead
> to war.

> Nonetheless, annexation procedures were quickly initiated after
> the 1844 election of Polk, who campaigned that Texas should be
> “re-annexed” and that the Oregon Territory should be
> “re-occupied.” Polk also had his eyes on California, New Mexico
> and the rest of what is today the U.S. Southwest. When his offer
> to purchase those lands was rejected, he instigated a fight by
> moving troops into a disputed zone between the Rio Grande and
> Nueces River that both countries had previously recognized as part
> of the Mexican state of Coahuila."

> http://www.history.com/topics/mexican-american-war

So the United States completely reversed policy, becoming much more
belligerent with respect to Mexico between 1836 and 1844. In 1836,
America avoided war. In 1844, America was much more nationalistic,
ready to embrace war because of "manifest destiny." What changed?
What changed was the end of influence of the preceding Artist
generation, and the rise of the new Nomad generation, and that's the
beginning of America's Fourth Turning, or Crisis Era.