Myth - Russia ( and Iran ) Doomed to Fail in Middle East

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Reality Check
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Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:07 pm

Myth - Russia ( and Iran ) Doomed to Fail in Middle East

Post by Reality Check »

The Obama administration - and many talking heads in the United States - are spreading the view that Russia ( and Iran ) are doomed to fail in Syria in the same way that the U.S. Failed in Vietnam and Russia Failed in Afghanistan.

The main talking points to this are:

1. Russia is a Christian invader in the Middle East, and,

2. There are far more Sunni Muslims in the Middle East than Shia Muslims.

3. There are far more Sunni Muslim Arabs in the Middle East than any other single "Religious and Ethnic" combination.

4. Sunni Muslim Armies are willing to use 7 Century tactics that the Russian Military will not use.


The main counter points to this are:

1. In Afghanistan it was Russia against the Muslim world supported by the United States providing massive support to the Sunni Muslims fighting Russia.

2. In Afghanistan Russia was not fighting as a close ally of one major branch of Islam against another major branch of Islam as part of a Muslim civil war - in Syria Russia is in such an alliance.

3. The war in Syria is between Sunni Arab Muslims in Syria, and everyone else ( including Sunni Muslim non-Arabs = mainly Kurds - fighting Sunni Muslim Arabs). At the start of the Civil War the Sunni Arab population in Syria represented slightly over 50% of the civilian population in Syria.

4. There are only two strategic nuclear super powers in the world = the United States and Russia - and they both have about 2,000 operational strategic nuclear warheads - strategic nuclear warheads being the type where, under perfect conditions, one, single, strategic nuclear warhead could destroy one city.

5. There is only one tactical nuclear super power in the world - Russia - Russia is estimated to have 10,000 operational tactical nuclear weapons versus a few hundred for the United States - a tactical nuclear warhead being, the type of warhead where, under perfect conditions, one single tactical nuclear warhead could completely destroy one combat battalion.

6. Both Russia and Iran have sufficient numbers of combat troops to engage in major ground battles and force the enemy ground forces to concentrate their troops to avoid Russian and Iranian forces from overrunning and destroying them. Once concentrated, enemy forces are easy targets for artillery and air bombardment, and even more vulnerable to the use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons.

7. The United States under Obama, will never commit major American ground forces in the middle East to fight the Russians.

8. The United States, under Obama, would never start a strategic nuclear war with Russia over the Russians using a few tactical nuclear weapons to win a battle against a Sunni Muslim Arab army invading Syria and attacking the Russians.

9. The talking heads that are predicting a Russian failure in Syria are severely underestimating the ruthlessness of Putin and the willingness of the Russian military to use some of the Russian military's 10,000 operation tactical nuclear weapons against Sunni Muslim Arab armies and rebels.

10. The talking heads that are predicting Russian failure in Syria are severely underestimating how far Obama will go to avoid any confrontation with Russia that MIGHT lead to a strategic nuclear war between the United States and Russia.

11. Turkey is run by a non-Arab Sunni Muslim Government. Turkey is more concerned with being threatened by the Kurds and losing parts of it's country to Assad ( the part Turkey took from Syria by force in defiance of the international community 80 some years ago ) and fearful of a rebellion of Kurds, and of hosting millions of Syrian Sunni Arab Muslim refugees, and of a militant, Middle East wide, alliance of Sunni Arab Muslims countries, taking over Syria - than Turkey is of Assad staying in power in Syria. Turkey would reach a separate peace with Iran, Iraq and Syria if Turkey's concerns in Syria and Iraq were addressed and an adequate supply of cheap oil form Iraq was guaranteed,

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