New Pentagon report outlines China's military buildup

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John
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New Pentagon report outlines China's military buildup

Postby John » Sun Aug 28, 2011 4:35 pm


thomasglee
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Re: New Pentagon report outlines China's military buildup

Postby thomasglee » Mon Aug 29, 2011 2:05 am

John,

I'm in Korea now and have been for the past few weeks. I just secured a place to live here, since so much of my work is in Korea.

One thing I can tell you is that Korea is spending a lot on their military right now and there's a bit of an "arms race" taking place, albeit quietly. I can also tell you that the Koreans fully expect a war with north Korea and China in the not too distant future. I'm really beginning to wonder where I'd be safer.... :o
Money is merely our mental measure of wealth - it is NOT wealth.

- Martin Armstrong

Bison

Re: New Pentagon report outlines China's military buildup

Postby Bison » Mon Aug 29, 2011 7:16 am

War in 12-18 months is a pretty big call. Only incidents that I have heard of are regarding fishing boats and undersea resource claims, seems a big leap to go to war from fairly friendly times.

And it seems to me that it would be an economic suicide for China. Where would they get their oil, gas, iron ore, coal? How would they feed the war machine.
After some sort of semi-mutual destruction they would need to rebuild as well, if they can't take ground / rebuild relationships / or be seen by some countries as the innocent party they can't re-build through the lack of natural resources.

I assume they get their oil from the Middle East, Africa, maybe some from Indonesia. Blockades would surely be to easy and is there any major country that would take China's side and risk embargoes (at least) from the West.

Plenty of economic losses for them too, all the US governement debt they hold (maybe this could be a point to escalate things).
Also the money they are putting into Australia (and no doubt other countries also) for resources (I happen to work on a project for one of the Chinese government groups in Australia - actually a western chinese area gov).

I guess one of your points was it is not logical, but the obstacles seem huge.

Maybe a modern tech war is different and these resource issues aren't so important.

Curious to know how you think the less West aligned countries such as Russia and India would respond, surely India at least could not stay out of it.

Max LeCompte

Re: New Pentagon report outlines China's military buildup

Postby Max LeCompte » Mon Aug 29, 2011 10:42 am

As always Prof. Xenakis, it's excellent reporting.

I personally don't think nationalism in Taiwan is what it was.
If you go through Taipei airport, you'll notice that most of the flights are going to China.

China is Taiwan's #1 trading partner now.

But I agree with you. The United States and China will be shooting at each other within two years.
I don't think it will be related to Taiwan per se. It will involve rash behavior by China toward a US ship or plane.

Floyd Alsbach

Re: New Pentagon report outlines China's military buildup

Postby Floyd Alsbach » Sat Sep 10, 2011 8:19 am

God I hope you are wrong. The historian in me says that it all rings true except the economic history which is 50/50ish:
(Not in historical order)
-Hitler went to a great deal of trouble to prepare the war economy.
-WWI The Kaiser was well prepared for war on the ground. On the Sea, he must have thought he could destroy England's sea power early. Overall, I think that the rush of events moved bit quicker than anticipated. A great deal of ancient hubris died in that war.
-The Confederacy did not prepare economically. However it had the best trained and most experienced Military leadership... which is half of the reason why the Civil War lasted so long.
-If I recall correctly France had the largest population in Europe at the beginning of the Napoleonic Wars, and for all intents and purposes was a closed economy in that, for the most part, it could provide for itself internally.

So... IF Chinese nationalism is growing as rapidly as it's economy... we are all in deep shit. :!:

Anonymous2

Re: New Pentagon report outlines China's military buildup

Postby Anonymous2 » Tue Sep 20, 2011 3:10 pm

What China want's more than anything is for their party to stay in power. Economic difficult times in the West (the west buying less) puts a pressure on the Chinese government to continue to create work projects to keep people fully employed and happy. The Chinese people have no social nets and must work to live. If there is another economic crisis in the west (as is quite possible with Europe and a global recession), China will be able to blame the US for starting the economic crisis (with 2007). The USA will be bad guy and the reason for their loss of employment. It will be easier to blame the problem on the west and declare war (over taiwan) and focus the people of china on this enemy than have the people blame the party. War will also solve the demographic problem that China created with their 1 child policy. They will now be able to take millions of men that cannot find wives and send them to the front. That will re-banlance the male to female ratio and keep the people less discontent. Let's also not forget the imbalance they have with university trained young people from the country side that are gathering in large cities to find work that does not exist for them. War would seam to solve a few problems to the Peoples Party. I believe that the Party is more important to the leadership of China than the economy.

Reality Check
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Re: New Pentagon report outlines China's military buildup

Postby Reality Check » Sun Oct 16, 2011 2:27 pm

The time frame seems very short for a people that are known for patience and taking the long view.

I would suggest that if Obama is re-elected, Obama will continue to dismantle both the United States strategic military capabilities and the United States conventional military capabilities.

Chinese determined to defeat the United States would be crazy to launch an attack while President Obama is destroying the United States military without any risk to China.

On the other hand, the Chinese might believe Obama would abandon Taiwan and not fight over it.

I can see an attack by China on Taiwan after Obama is defeated in an election in November 2012 and before Obama's replacement takes power in January 2013.

The logic being Obama would not fight and it would all be over before the President elect takes office.

I can also see an attack if Obama is re-elected, only not so early in Obama's second term, because Obama is going to be destroying the U.S. Military without any action by the Chinese, so why not let him do so for two or three more years ???

Reality Check
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Re: New Pentagon report outlines China's military buildup

Postby Reality Check » Sun Oct 16, 2011 2:32 pm

If China did start a war, why would they pick Taiwan and why would they not seek to expand into other territories like South East Asia or Oil Rich Central Asia ???

China needs natural resources and land and women. Taiwan would only help with the later.

Unless of course China believed they would actually drive the United States out of the Western Pacific merely by occupying Taiwan.

thomasglee
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Re: New Pentagon report outlines China's military buildup

Postby thomasglee » Mon Oct 17, 2011 9:55 am

Reality Check wrote:If China did start a war, why would they pick Taiwan and why would they not seek to expand into other territories like South East Asia or Oil Rich Central Asia ???

China needs natural resources and land and women. Taiwan would only help with the later.

Unless of course China believed they would actually drive the United States out of the Western Pacific merely by occupying Taiwan.


Are you familiar with the Chinese mind? If so, you'll understand that PRIDE more than anything will cause them to go after Taiwan.
Money is merely our mental measure of wealth - it is NOT wealth.

- Martin Armstrong

Tom Acre
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Re: New Pentagon report outlines China's military buildup

Postby Tom Acre » Mon Oct 17, 2011 11:55 am

thomasglee wrote:
Reality Check wrote:If China did start a war, why would they pick Taiwan ...


Are you familiar with the Chinese mind? If so, you'll understand that PRIDE more than anything will cause them to go after Taiwan.


As far as Red China is concerned, Taiwan IS their possession, just another province. I've heard that view not only within PRC from Beijing to Guangzhou, from gov't and citizen alike, expatriot PRC citizens, young students and long-term resident aliens. Its a view that is presented to them as preschoolers and reinforced throughout their lives.

Essentially a PRC attack on Taiwan would be a civil war and would probably fracture into a larger civil war along the old north south lines w/ Taiwan and Southern China joining forces against the Red north, quickly involving the United States and Japan, spreading to a reignition of Korean civil war and Indian Pakistani war, etc. etc. etc.

One cannot realistically imagine how swiftly it will happen and how profoundly life will change when this or one of a million possible other scenarios plunges us into the next world war. It may be another decade, or it may be tomorrow. I'm conflicted about which would be better, as the later it happens the greater the number of the number of more horrible weapons the PRC, Pakistan et.al. will have. I pray for peaceful resolution but have read too much history to expect it, barring a real miracle.


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