Frank Baynes wrote:> I would like to ask you what you think of the following using your
> generational methodology:
> The big problem of our time is increasingly that the inevitable
> settlement (or destruction) of debt is postponed and postponed,
> thereby exacerbating the size of the crisis that will inevitably
> hit us in the end.
In both the global financial and geopolitical areas, the survivors of
WW II were well aware how small problems can spiral out of control
into major crises and wars.
However, the experience since WW II is that small problems tend to
disappear by themselves, without causing much damage. Hence, when a
small problem occurs, international officials apply band aids, in
order to supply a temporary solution, until the problem disappears by
itself. The band aid itself may do harm or be harmless, but either
way, the resolution of the problem is postponed, as you point out, and
the crisis is worse when it finally occurs.
It's generally assumed that the various Arab "revolutions" going on
around the Mideast will soon peter out, and things will return to
"normal." What I see is a trend toward growing instability in the
Mideast during a generational Crisis era. This trend may not
continue, but if it does, then the region may be at full-scale war
within a few months.
The next question is: When does this regional war become threaten to
become a world war? That would be when the U.S. or Nato gets involved
(as we might do in Lybia), or when Israel gets involved.