John wrote:It's time to update the Conflict Risk Graphic
Just my point of view (please do not hesitate to make correction to my english, this is NOT my mother tongue, and I apologize for the many mistakes I make):
on Europe the ACTUAL risk of a conflict is =0 for 3 reasons:
1-People don't understand what happens, and the REAL economic situation (for the real people) is about the same as what it was befor the crisis (crisis here is a word, the numbres are bad, but the people hadles that, this is a common crisis with NO political decision, as usual)
2-Even the street demonstrations are at a VERY low level of violence (medias shows a different image, but in Athen, France, Ireland, Italy nothing new) it means that people doesn't want yet ANY kind of confrontation, and politics continue to manipulate the people with the medias, so that by NOW, there is no way to construct a real opposition.
3-Europe is the contrary of an Union, every one speaks for himself without adressing the real problems, it means that no one is ready for ANYTHING (people are asleep and without any conscienceness of the world, as in the US, as it looks like from the news I have here)
But a risk of a military conflict between SOME countries of Europe (not ALL) and the north Africa is neutral (I mean the same as in 1960), BUT could escalate very quickly on some new important fact (not a single bombing, this wouldn't be enough)
Kasmir, from the news I have from people who went there within the next year, it looks like the risk is medium (people are very peaceful), BUT, could escalate very quickly based on discrimination facts.
On the same time, people does NOT want high violence, and they consider their problems as a local problem,
On the same time Pakistan and India manipulate people, so, from the news I have, the risk at 3 for Kashmir itself (a local war without global consequence) and 2 for the world (if it is a test region between China and India), with very low risk for foreigners.
India: The problem with India is that it is a very "non unified" country, and that it is unable to build infrastructure (the opposite of China) with a risk of revolution on the east coast and a risk of war with Pakistan. Too chaotic to be risky for the world, except if they unite themselves against China (not mature yet).
Korea, for me, it is only usual common wording (The US and South Korea WILL retreat, as usual), Words means that the risk cannot be evaluated, but I think that you are right, the actual generational change make the risk higher, but China does not want a conflict NOW, I think the risk level of 2 is correct, because there is no way, in my point of view, that EVEN if North Korea attacks (which is a possibility), even with nuclear weapons (which would be a suicide) this CANNOT actually escalate into a more important war.
China, before the change of its government in 2012, is NOT a dangerous country, and I do not see why it would overreact (no actual interest in doing that).
Within the 10 next years, China does NOT have interest in going into war, for internal reasons: it could destabilize its own regions (where the wording is "be rich and shut up"), for external reasons: the Army is NOT ready (yet) and that the ONLY interest of China is to become a LOCAL power over Asia: because of Pakistan, the history (and the actual conflict in interest) between China and India and South China sea conflict this could bring to a larger conflict, but this is nOT in the interest of China to make ANY move before 2020.
The world doesn't want war, World is NOT ready for a war, the only people who could want war could be the sunnis (and NOT the governments) and they do NOT have enough material to act, I mean that they are NOT ready YET.
My actual evaluation is that within the next 5 years, the risk of a global confrontation is strictly = 0, because NO important group is ready to act (even Russia).
I read a book which gives a different point of view as yours, ASIA is based on HOPE, North Africa and Middle East on HUMILIATION and the WEST on FEAR. Fear could jump directly into war, but not hope (it has to go through desillusion and then fear). This means that US and Russia ARE the main dangers for the peace YET.
This will change, but, yet, I do not believe in any important war before 2025, after that the probability is, omy point of view) VERY high, not because of a clash of civilization, but because a recurring SUICIDE pulsion that any civilization has (that is where your site is very useful for me, if gives me some logic to this suicide).
This is just a point of view (one among a lot, not more), not as paranoid as yours, with the same long term conclusion