Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Posted: Thu Jan 31, 2019 11:58 am
** 31-Jan-2019 Congress turns deeply hawkish
The 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment that Dan Coats, director of
national intelligence, presented on Tuesday, that I wrote about a
couple of days ago, has led to an openly far more hawkish Congress.
A bipartisan group of House members are introducing bills to restrict
Trump from withdrawing troops from Syria and North Korea. There are
other reports of discussions to restrict troop withdrawal from
Afghanistan.
Trump uses twitter regularly to drive the public agenda, to bait
Democrats and the media, and to drive everyone crazy, and for two
years he's done so successfully. In this case, he said that said the
nation's intelligence chiefs were "naive" about Iran and perhaps
should "go back to school."
I was watching the pretty girls on MSNBC lead analyst panels
yesterday, and it's dizzying how these people have no idea what's
going on. A typical remark is that Trump "creates an alernative
reality based on lies," and make descisions based on the alternative
reality. It makes me laugh to think how apoplectic they would be if
Trump were proposing to send troops INTO some country. These are some
of the stupidist people around today, with no motivation other than
hatred of 60 million Trump supporters.
However, the general hawkish shift in Congress is realistically
generated by something quite different -- Barack Obama's experience of
withdrawing American troops from Iraq. Many people blame Obama's
troop withdrawal for ISIS's conquest of Mosul and about two-thirds of
the entire country in 2014.
The other issue making Congress more realistically hawkish is, of
course, China. Things like the Xinjiang Uighur ongoing genocide, the
violence against Christians and Buddhists, the militarization of the
South China Sea, and the realization the widespread understanding that
Huawei devices (phones, routers, etc.) contain "backdoors" making
them controllable by China's military have made more people concerned
about a war with China. In past years, the Generational Dynamics
predictions of coming war with China have elicited mostly disbelief,
but what I've seen in the last few months is that people now agree
that all the Generational Dynamics predictions have been correct.
The Iran issue is an interesting one. I believe that Trump knows
(from his association with Steve Bannon, who is an expert on
Generational Dynamics) the prediction that Iran will be an ally,
thanks to the pro-Western younger generations. But he would also know
that Iran isn't interested in nuclear weapons to use against the US.
Iran is interested in nuclear weapons because of Saudi Arabia -- as
well as Saudi ally Pakistan, which already has nuclear weapons.
The intelligence report says, "We continue to assess that Iran is not
currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities
we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device. ... Iran’s continued
implementation of the JCPOA has extended the amount of time Iran would
need to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon from a
few months to about one year."
What does that statement even mean? If it's meant to be some kind of
minimalist assessment, then it's correct. But if it's presented to
Congress to imply that Iran has no interest in developing nuclear
weapons (and is not secretly developing nuclear technology in its
labs, or even importing nuclear know-how from North Korea) then the
assessment is indeed "naive."
As to whether intelligence chiefs should "go back to school," I
heartily agree. Intelligence assessments (and economic assessments)
are consistently blindingly oblivious to generational issues, and as a
result they're consistently wrong, whereas Generational Dynamics in 15
years has proven to be consistently right.
So if intelligence chiefs were schooled in Generational Dynamics, then
the country's intelligence assessments and policies would be far more
accurate. Unfortunately, that's never going to happen.
As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war refighting the 1948 war
between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and
the creation of the state of Israel. The war will also pit Sunnis
versus Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. Iran is
controlled by an ancient generation of hardliners whose policies are
strongly opposed by the growing population of younger generations.
Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni
Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India,
Russia and Iran.
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4277 ... orea-troop
(The Hill)
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/schume ... with-trump
(Fox News)
--- Related:
** 13-Jan-19 World View -- India-Iran and Saudi-Pakistan alliances form and strengthen in Asia
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190113
** 29-Jan-2019 Director of National Intelligence warns of China-Russia alliance
** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 830#p43830
The 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment that Dan Coats, director of
national intelligence, presented on Tuesday, that I wrote about a
couple of days ago, has led to an openly far more hawkish Congress.
A bipartisan group of House members are introducing bills to restrict
Trump from withdrawing troops from Syria and North Korea. There are
other reports of discussions to restrict troop withdrawal from
Afghanistan.
Trump uses twitter regularly to drive the public agenda, to bait
Democrats and the media, and to drive everyone crazy, and for two
years he's done so successfully. In this case, he said that said the
nation's intelligence chiefs were "naive" about Iran and perhaps
should "go back to school."
I was watching the pretty girls on MSNBC lead analyst panels
yesterday, and it's dizzying how these people have no idea what's
going on. A typical remark is that Trump "creates an alernative
reality based on lies," and make descisions based on the alternative
reality. It makes me laugh to think how apoplectic they would be if
Trump were proposing to send troops INTO some country. These are some
of the stupidist people around today, with no motivation other than
hatred of 60 million Trump supporters.
However, the general hawkish shift in Congress is realistically
generated by something quite different -- Barack Obama's experience of
withdrawing American troops from Iraq. Many people blame Obama's
troop withdrawal for ISIS's conquest of Mosul and about two-thirds of
the entire country in 2014.
The other issue making Congress more realistically hawkish is, of
course, China. Things like the Xinjiang Uighur ongoing genocide, the
violence against Christians and Buddhists, the militarization of the
South China Sea, and the realization the widespread understanding that
Huawei devices (phones, routers, etc.) contain "backdoors" making
them controllable by China's military have made more people concerned
about a war with China. In past years, the Generational Dynamics
predictions of coming war with China have elicited mostly disbelief,
but what I've seen in the last few months is that people now agree
that all the Generational Dynamics predictions have been correct.
The Iran issue is an interesting one. I believe that Trump knows
(from his association with Steve Bannon, who is an expert on
Generational Dynamics) the prediction that Iran will be an ally,
thanks to the pro-Western younger generations. But he would also know
that Iran isn't interested in nuclear weapons to use against the US.
Iran is interested in nuclear weapons because of Saudi Arabia -- as
well as Saudi ally Pakistan, which already has nuclear weapons.
The intelligence report says, "We continue to assess that Iran is not
currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities
we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device. ... Iran’s continued
implementation of the JCPOA has extended the amount of time Iran would
need to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon from a
few months to about one year."
What does that statement even mean? If it's meant to be some kind of
minimalist assessment, then it's correct. But if it's presented to
Congress to imply that Iran has no interest in developing nuclear
weapons (and is not secretly developing nuclear technology in its
labs, or even importing nuclear know-how from North Korea) then the
assessment is indeed "naive."
As to whether intelligence chiefs should "go back to school," I
heartily agree. Intelligence assessments (and economic assessments)
are consistently blindingly oblivious to generational issues, and as a
result they're consistently wrong, whereas Generational Dynamics in 15
years has proven to be consistently right.
So if intelligence chiefs were schooled in Generational Dynamics, then
the country's intelligence assessments and policies would be far more
accurate. Unfortunately, that's never going to happen.
As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war refighting the 1948 war
between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and
the creation of the state of Israel. The war will also pit Sunnis
versus Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. Iran is
controlled by an ancient generation of hardliners whose policies are
strongly opposed by the growing population of younger generations.
Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni
Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India,
Russia and Iran.
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4277 ... orea-troop
(The Hill)
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/schume ... with-trump
(Fox News)
--- Related:
** 13-Jan-19 World View -- India-Iran and Saudi-Pakistan alliances form and strengthen in Asia
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190113
** 29-Jan-2019 Director of National Intelligence warns of China-Russia alliance
** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 830#p43830