Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 31-Jan-2019 Congress turns deeply hawkish

The 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment that Dan Coats, director of
national intelligence, presented on Tuesday, that I wrote about a
couple of days ago, has led to an openly far more hawkish Congress.

A bipartisan group of House members are introducing bills to restrict
Trump from withdrawing troops from Syria and North Korea. There are
other reports of discussions to restrict troop withdrawal from
Afghanistan.

Trump uses twitter regularly to drive the public agenda, to bait
Democrats and the media, and to drive everyone crazy, and for two
years he's done so successfully. In this case, he said that said the
nation's intelligence chiefs were "naive" about Iran and perhaps
should "go back to school."

I was watching the pretty girls on MSNBC lead analyst panels
yesterday, and it's dizzying how these people have no idea what's
going on. A typical remark is that Trump "creates an alernative
reality based on lies," and make descisions based on the alternative
reality. It makes me laugh to think how apoplectic they would be if
Trump were proposing to send troops INTO some country. These are some
of the stupidist people around today, with no motivation other than
hatred of 60 million Trump supporters.

However, the general hawkish shift in Congress is realistically
generated by something quite different -- Barack Obama's experience of
withdrawing American troops from Iraq. Many people blame Obama's
troop withdrawal for ISIS's conquest of Mosul and about two-thirds of
the entire country in 2014.

The other issue making Congress more realistically hawkish is, of
course, China. Things like the Xinjiang Uighur ongoing genocide, the
violence against Christians and Buddhists, the militarization of the
South China Sea, and the realization the widespread understanding that
Huawei devices (phones, routers, etc.) contain "backdoors" making
them controllable by China's military have made more people concerned
about a war with China. In past years, the Generational Dynamics
predictions of coming war with China have elicited mostly disbelief,
but what I've seen in the last few months is that people now agree
that all the Generational Dynamics predictions have been correct.

The Iran issue is an interesting one. I believe that Trump knows
(from his association with Steve Bannon, who is an expert on
Generational Dynamics) the prediction that Iran will be an ally,
thanks to the pro-Western younger generations. But he would also know
that Iran isn't interested in nuclear weapons to use against the US.
Iran is interested in nuclear weapons because of Saudi Arabia -- as
well as Saudi ally Pakistan, which already has nuclear weapons.

The intelligence report says, "We continue to assess that Iran is not
currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities
we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device. ... Iran’s continued
implementation of the JCPOA has extended the amount of time Iran would
need to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon from a
few months to about one year."

What does that statement even mean? If it's meant to be some kind of
minimalist assessment, then it's correct. But if it's presented to
Congress to imply that Iran has no interest in developing nuclear
weapons (and is not secretly developing nuclear technology in its
labs, or even importing nuclear know-how from North Korea) then the
assessment is indeed "naive."

As to whether intelligence chiefs should "go back to school," I
heartily agree. Intelligence assessments (and economic assessments)
are consistently blindingly oblivious to generational issues, and as a
result they're consistently wrong, whereas Generational Dynamics in 15
years has proven to be consistently right.

So if intelligence chiefs were schooled in Generational Dynamics, then
the country's intelligence assessments and policies would be far more
accurate. Unfortunately, that's never going to happen.

As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war refighting the 1948 war
between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and
the creation of the state of Israel. The war will also pit Sunnis
versus Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. Iran is
controlled by an ancient generation of hardliners whose policies are
strongly opposed by the growing population of younger generations.
Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni
Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India,
Russia and Iran.



https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4277 ... orea-troop
(The Hill)

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/schume ... with-trump
(Fox News)


--- Related:

** 13-Jan-19 World View -- India-Iran and Saudi-Pakistan alliances form and strengthen in Asia
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190113



** 29-Jan-2019 Director of National Intelligence warns of China-Russia alliance
** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 830#p43830

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 31-Jan-2019 Pakistan protests fizzle after Asia Bibi is acquitted of blasphemy

In November, when Pakistan's Supreme Court acquitted Asia Bibi of
blasphemy charges, the loony Barelvi sect / Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan
(TLP) terrorists mobilized massive protests across the country,
blocking roads in and out of big cities, and had threatened to kill
the three Supreme Court judges who had written the opinion freeing
Asia. Alarmingly, Pakistan's government completely capitulated to
TLP, and prevented Asia from leaving the country to join her five
children, and opened the way for a new Supreme Court hearing.

On Wednesday, the Supreme Counrt reaffirmed Asia Bibi's acquittal. A
government spokesman then said that she was free to go wherever she
wanted, including leaving the country. "Following the decision of the
apex court, Aasia Bibi is a free woman and she can go anywhere she
wants. ... It would be her own decision when she leaves the country."

TLP called for new nationwide protests, saying that they "cannot
compromize on the honor of the Prophet [Mohammed]." But on Wednesday
the protests fizzled. Only 20 protesters showed up in Lahore, and
only eight in Rawalpindi.

On reason is that the police blocked the protest sites, and
another reason is TLP leaders are in jail because of past protests.

The blasphemy charge occurred in 2010 when a bunch of women started
arguing with each other. Several women refused to drink out of the
same cup as Asia because she's a Christian. Five days later, they
decided to charge her with blasphemy. She was prosecuted and has been
in jail until November of last year.

Salman Taseer, the governor of Punjab province in Pakistan, called for
the release of Asia Bibi, and was shot 28 times in broad daylight in
an open marketplace on January 4, 2011. The killer was his bodyguard,
Mumtaz Qadri. The motive, as described by Qadri, was to punish Taseer
for objecting to Pakistan's blasphemy laws, and for calling for the
release of Asia Bibi. Qadri was not just a national hero, but he was
a Barelvi hero, and it's that execution that led to the rise of TLP.
Since Qadri justified his murder of Taseer with a phony blasphemy
charge, the TLP political movement is based almost entirely on phony
blasphemy charges. Qadri was showered with roses and treated as a
hero in 2011 after brutally murdering Taseer. Qadri was finally
executed last year, but not before he became a national hero for
killing Taseer over a phony blasphemy charge.

So Asia Bibi has been a political foil for the loony Barelvi sect for
eight years. If she is successful in leaving the country, at least
that part of saga may be over.

I analyzed the Supreme Court decision in detail last year, and one
interesting thing is that they found that Bibi was NOT guilty of
blasphemy, but that the prosecuters and lower courts were themselves
guilty of violating Pakistan's blasphemy laws, because they had
insulted her (Christian) religion. They said that the Koran demands
that every Muslim believe in all the holy prophets, including Jesus
Christ, and that therefore Asia's accusers were themselves
blasphemers.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/425983 ... ve-country
(The News International, Pakistan)

https://www.dawn.com/news/1460896
(Dawn, Pakistan)

--- Related

** 4-Nov-18 World View -- Pakistan government capitulates to Barelvi/TLP terrorists, doesn't free Asia Bibi
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e181104



** 1-Nov-18 World View -- Pakistan court reaffirms Mohammed's covenant with Christianity, acquits Asia Bibi of blasphemy
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e181101



** 4-Jan-17 World View -- Pakistan's bizarre blasphemy laws lead to death threats for son of slain governor
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e170104

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 1-Feb-2019 Brexit disaster continues, as March 29 approaches

Ever since the Brexit referendum passed on June 23, 2016, Brexit has
been a continuing disaster for the UK and the EU.

The main stumbling block in the negotiations is and always has been
the problem of Northern Ireland. After Brexit, the (southern)
Republic of Ireland would be in the EU, while Northern Ireland would
not, but would still be in the UK. That means that there could be a
frictionless border between Northern Ireland and Ireland (which
everyone says they want) or a frictionless border between Northern
Ireland and Britain (which the UK wants, but the EU couldn't care less
about), but not both.

As I've said from the beginning, there is no solution to this problem.
And this has to do with the nature of a generational Crisis era.

In the 1990s, which was a generational Unraveling era, when the world
was still being run by people who had lived through the horrors of
World War II, people were willing to compromise. Today, the world is
being run by Generation-Xers, who have absolutely no desire to
compromise. We see that on both sides in America with the wall, and
we see it in the UK and EU with Brexit.

Not understanding this is a mistake that everyone seems to make.
Politicians, particularly middle-aged to older politicians, recall how
easyk it was to reach agreement in the 1990s, and they expect the same
now. When somebody refuses to compromise, the media blames the
individual, without understanding that it isn't the individual, but
the generation.

So today with Brexit, you have Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn (Labor),
Ireland's Taoiseach (prime minister) Leo Varadkar, Northern Ireland's
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the EU, some splinter groups
(Poland), and so forth, all setting red lines and refusing to
compromise.

So for example, Ireland will not accept any non-open border with
Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland will not accept any non-open
border with the rest of the UK. As I described above, these two
positions are incompatible, and all they keep doing is shouting at
each other.

And the hard deadline (unless it's changed) is March 29. If there's
no agreement, then the UK "crashes out" of the EU with a "no-deal
Brexit," which means that there is a very hard border between Northern
Ireland and Ireland. Nobody wants that -- at least they all say they
don't.

People are literally screaming at each other over one particular
supposed compromise: The Ireland Backstop. I've previously described
that as the worst of all possible worlds for the UK, because the UK
would leave the EU (so there's no hard border between the UK and
Northern Ireland), and would still be subject to all EU rules and
regulations and court rulings (so there would be no need for a hard
border between Ireland and Northern Ireland), but the UK would have no
vote and no say on what rules and rulings the EU imposed on the UK.
It's an absolutely mind-boggling development.

Most of the shouting now is about how long the Backstop would be
imposed. The UK says, OK, maybe a couple of years. The UK says, no
way - the Backstop has to last forever.

I've watch some of the live hearings at the Commons this week, with
the guy in front who's always shouting,
"Awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwduh, awwwwwduh." It's really funny for a
while, but after a while it gets on your nerves because all they're
doing is screaming and shouting at each other for the same things,
over and over.

There is apparently an option floating around where the UK would
remain in the EU, and Brexit would be postponed for a while or
forever. I personally don't see any reasonable option but this one.

Even this last proposal would require approval by both the UK and EU,
but in the UK there does not exist any majority for any proposal,
which means that even this proposal may fail.

But this brings us back to the fact that this is a generational Crisis
era. Nobody is willing to compromise, and so there is no choice but
to go off the cliff -- a "no-deal Brexit."


https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/01/bre ... h-backstop
(Euro News)

https://www.reuters.com/article/britain ... SS8N1UL04M
(Reuters)

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ir ... s-44615404
(BBC, 13-Dec-2018)


--- Related

** 19-Oct-18 World View -- Brexit appears headed for worst of all possible worlds for UK
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e181019

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

John wrote:...this brings us back to the fact that this is a generational Crisis
era. Nobody is willing to compromise, and so there is no choice but
to go off the cliff -- a "no-deal Brexit." ...
When high-frequency (-ish) atmospheric pressure changes ("talking") are ignored as a medium of communication, then other "pressure changes", such as board-to-head or metal-shard-to-torso, will be chosen as "more effective", as they are rather more difficult to ignore.

People don't like being ignored,.. over and over and over....

All communication, and therefore all persuasion, is based on one form of physical force or another,.. and I personally would rather be "assaulted" with tiny puffs of air than bits of wood and metal.

..but,.. free will being what it is,.. people will choose what they choose.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 1-Feb-2019 Trump cancels Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty (INF)

Donald Trump announced on Friday that he will suspend the
Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty (INF) with Russia in a week,
unless Russia comes into compliance, which it won't. Trump gave as a
reason that the US is in full compliance with the agreement, but the
Russians have been "covertly developing and fielding a prohibited
missile system that poses a direct threat to our allies and troops
abroad."

European and Nato officials agree with Trump, and are supporting
his decision.

Russia says that they never violated the treaty but, you know,
they lie about everything (Crimea, MH17, Sarin gas, etc.) so
we have to assume they're lying about this as well.

When I wrote last October about Trump's plans to suspend the INF
treaty, I pointed out that the target was China. Trump's statement on
Friday said, "We cannot be the only country in the world unilaterally
bound by this treaty," alluding to China.

China has been continuing unbridled development of missile systems for
years -- long-range systems that target the United States, and
intermediate rante systems that target Japan, Russia, South Korea,
Vietnam, India, and other neighbors.

Furthermore, this is the same Chinese government that is committing
genocide and ethnic cleansing of Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang, violently
suppressing Christians, Buddhists and Muslims, stealing intellectual
property, and illegally militarizing the South China Sea. The Chinese
are turning into barbaric monsters right before our eyes, and there's
little doubt that China will use those missile systems at the time of
their choosing.

The mainstream media have been having a field day criticizing
this "reckless" decision.

For example, on the BBC World Service, I listened for five minutes to
a rant by Alexandra Bell (@atomicbell), complaining that "This
administration in Washington has shown a disdain for international
agreements that it did not itself negotiate," and saying that it's
critical that other arms control treaties like INF stay place "to
prevent an arms race between the US and Russia." During her five
minute rant, she never once mentioned China. She's supposed to be an
expert, but apparently knows nothing about China, and probably
couldn't find it on a map.

And I say this almost every day, it really bothers me, day after day,
to see so-called experts who have absolutely no clue what's going on.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st ... nf-treaty/
(White House)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... story.html
(Washington Post)

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/uncert ... inf-treaty
(Center for Foreign Affairs, 22-Oct-2018)

--- Related

** 23-Oct-18 World View -- Trump targets China by cancelling arms control treaty with Russia
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e181023

Jeremy

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Jeremy »

Just a reminder to readers that John and I (Jeremy) are now posting on Twitter.

Be sure to support us and follow the @gendyn account https://twitter.com/gendyn

Like and Retweet us so we can gain a little more traction on the interwebs. :mrgreen:

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 2-Feb-2019 Media commentary on withdrawal from arms control treaty

China's Foreign Ministry released a hilarious statement on Trump's
announcement of withdrawal from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces
(INF) bilateral treaty with Russia:
> China finds this move regrettable. We have repeatedly stated
> China's position regarding the INF Treaty. As an important
> bilateral treaty in arms control and disarmament, this treaty
> plays a significant role in easing major-country relations,
> promoting international and regional peace, and safeguarding
> global strategic balance and stability. China is opposed to the US
> withdrawal and urges the US and Russia to properly resolve
> differences through constructive dialogue.

> The US unilateral withdrawal from the INF Treaty may trigger a
> series of adverse consequences. China will closely follow relevant
> developments.

> Q: Will China agree to negotiate a new multilateral treaty on arms
> control to replace the INF Treaty?

> A: The multilateralization of the INF Treaty involves a series of
> complex issues covering political, military and legal fields,
> which draws concerns from many countries. China opposes the
> multilateralization of this treaty. What is imperative at the
> moment is to uphold and implement the existing treaty instead of
> creating a new one."
China wants to remain the only country in the world building and
deploying hundreds or thousands of missiles. Let's all breathe a sigh
of relief that the US and Russia will no longer be prevented from
confronting China.

Michael O'Hanlon (@MichaelEOHanlon) of the Brookings Institute was
interviewed on al-Jazeera. The interviewer tried to bait him into
criticizing the withdrawal, but he ignored the bait and said the
following (my transcription):
Michael E. O'Hanlon, Brookings Institute wrote: > It's really a 3-player situation because China's role here is
> crucial. As you know, China is not party to the treaty, and is
> not violating the treaty therefore, but it has built hundreds of
> the missiles of the range we're talking about -- between 300 miles
> and 3400 miles. And it has conventional warheads on most of those
> missiles, and they are now in position to threaten US allies and
> American military assets in the Western Pacific. So even if
> Russia were in full compliance the United States might have an
> interest in building its own ground-launched medium range missiles
> with conventional warheads, to try to respond to China's buildup.
> So it's not just about the Russian violations. Therefore I think
> there are many Americans who would favor pulling out of the INF
> treaty even if Russia were to come back into compliance.
Brookings Institute is known as a liberal think-tank. I quoted
O'Hanlon in 2009 in the context of a discussion of the Iraq war,
making a very sensible comment.

In that article, I quoted a NY Times article that referred to al-Qaeda
as "Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, a mostly homegrown Sunni insurgent group
that American intelligence says is foreign-led." Even now I have to
laugh at this moronic statement. This goes well beyond ideology. As
far as I can tell, there isn't a single NY Times reporter that has any
clue what's going on in the world. They make one idiotic statement
after another, as if they had gone to college and majored in
sociology, but think they know journalism. This is the level of
stupidity shared across the mainstream media.

So that's one reason why I'm today quoting Michael E. O'Hanlon
(@MichaelEOHanlon) of Brookings Institute. In a vast wasteland of
idiot journalists, analysts and politicians, O'Hanlon actually seems
to know what's going on in the world, and makes sense.

I just hope that my complimenting O'Hanlon doesn't ruin
his reputation.

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_6 ... 5268.shtml
(China Foreign Ministry)

--- Related:

** Brookings Institution does a full reversal on Iraq war
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e090701



** 1-Feb-2019 Trump cancels Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty (INF)
** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 870#p43870

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 2-Feb-2019 When will World War III begin?

I'm frequently asked when World War III will start. It's impossible
to predict the exact time, but we can at least try to predict HOW it
will start. And the best way to predict is to look at how previous
world wars started.

In the early 1910s, it was plausibly believed that war had ended.
This was "La Belle Époche" in Europe, when life was beautiful. Then,
unexpectedly, a high school student decided to shoot and kill a
Serbian Archduke. Within a few months, ten million guns got loaded,
and World War I exploded (Jacques Brel). So, if we follow the WWI
example, we can see that an assassination can trigger a world war.

OK, but that didn't happen in World War II. The war began after a
complex set of events, culminating in Hitler's Germany invading Poland
on September 1, 1939.

But that's not really when WW II started. That's when WW II started
in Europe. But WW II really began in Asia in 1937, with the Marco
Polo Bridge Incident.

The Marco Polo Bridge is located about 15 km southwest of Beijing, and
has that name because the original bridge, constructed in 1192, was
visited and praised by the 13th century Italian Silk Road trader,
Marco Polo.

In 1937, there were small numbers of Japanese and Chinese troops
around the bridge. The Japanese troops were there to protect a
Japanese diplomatic legation, and the Chinese soldiers were part of a
small camp in the the city of Wanping.

Late one evening, on July 8, a Japanese soldier was absent from a roll
call, and he could not be found. The Japanese assumed that the
Chinese had abducted him, and demanded to search the city of Wanping.
The Chinese refused, and there was a brief battle between the two
groups of soldiers. A peace was negotiated, but both sides called in
reinforcements. The situation rapidly escalated within a month, and
after that, Japan and China were at full scale war (Sino-Japanese War
(1937-45)).

Soon after that, the Japanese attacked the major Chinese city Nanking.
The result was the "Rape of Nanking," where hundreds of thousands of
innocent civilians, including women and children, were tortured,
beaten, raped and slaughtered. The Japanese were already using
Chinese women as "comfort women." At the same time, Japan's Unit 731
was conducting gruesome, horrific chemical and biological warfare
experiments on thousands of abducted Chinese men, women and children.
The Japanese were truly barbaric monsters.

And what about that missing Japanese soldier? It turned out later
that he had had to pee, and he went into the woods to relieve himself,
and got lost. By the time he got back, the roll call was over, and
the sequence of events leading to war had been launched.

So World War I started because a high school student assassinated
someone, and World War II started because someone had to pee.

The world is now deep into a generational Crisis era, with all the
survivors of World War II gone. In the 1990s, these survivors (the
Silent generation) knew how to govern the world and prevent or
de-escalate wars, but as they've disappeared, and Generation-X has
taken their place, there is no longer any motivation de-escalate wars
or to compromise -- as we see in Washington, London, Brussels,
Beijing, Moscow, and so forth.

During the 1930s, which was also a generational Crisis era, the
Japanese turned into barbaric monsters, committing mass slaughter,
torture, rape, and biological and chemical warfare on innocent Chinese
women and children.

The Japanese have atoned for their acts, but during the last ten
years, right before our eyes, the Chinese have already turned into the
same barbaric monsters. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been
arresting, beating, raping, torturing and executing over a million
Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang province, as well as similar violence
against Christians and Buddhists. The "Unit 731 style" atrocities are
being used against any Chinese people who support the Buddhist-based
Falun Gong religion, according to reports. China's technique is
simple: identify millions of Christians, Buddhists and Muslims as
"terrorists," and use that reason to commit atrocities on millions of
people.

If the Chinese are perfectly willing to conduct and excuse those kinds
of horrific acts against their own population, just because they're
Christians or Buddhists or Muslims, imagine what they'll do to the
Japanese if they have the chance.

The hatred that many Chinese people viscerally feel for the Japanese
runs deep. There have been frequent anti-Japan protests in China.
One of the biggest occurred in 2012, when more than 70,000 Chinese
staged rallies in at least 28 cities to demand that Japan surrender
the Senkaku islands to China. The largest demonstration, in Qingdao,
Shandong Province, attracted as many as 30,000 people and evolved into
rioting as protestors torched as many as 10 Japanese enterprises,
including a Panasonic factory. The protests and violence appeared to
have the tacit approval of China's government.

Today, the Chinese are thirsting for revenge for the monstrous acts
that the Japanese committed in WW II. The Chinese have already turned
into the same kinds of barbaric monsters, and we can barely imagine
the horrors that the Chinese will do to the Japanese if they have the
chance.

So how will WW III start? It could start with something as trivial
as someone needing to pee.

When will WW III start? It could start tomorrow, next month, or next
year. But China today is like a pressure cooker ready to explode, so
I doubt that it will be much longer.

How long will WW III last? Based on my research on major wars in
history, I would estimate five years, give or take a year. By the end
of that period, every nuclear weapon on earth will have been used.
Some people are predicting the end of humanity or a dark age, but I
don't buy that at all. I estimate that 3-4 billion people will be
killed from nuclear weapons, conventional weapons, ground war, riots,
disease, famine -- the Four Horsemen, and more. Even during the war,
technology development and commerce will continue in parts of the
world, and when it's all over, there will be 3-4 billion people left
to rebuild the world, hold a new peace conference, form a new United
Nations, and form a new European Union. Everything old will be new
again.

I used to think that America might lose to China, but I no longer
think so. Chinese missiles will destroy many American cities, but
America itself will survive. The Imperial Japanese were much stupider
than the Nazis, and the Chinese Communist Party is even stupider than
the Japanese were, so the Chinese and their nuclear missiles will
bring massive destruction to themselves and the entire world, but they
will lose the war, and end up lying prostrate before the world.


--- Related

** 27-Jan-19 World View -- George Soros speech at Davos marks significant global shift against China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190127



** 16-Nov-18 World View -- Fifteen countries challenge China's human rights in Xinjiang province
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e181116



** 27-Oct-18 World View -- China, facing Trump's trade challenge, appears to mend ties with Japan
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e181027

bluebird
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 7:59 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by bluebird »

Wow. If it weren't for Generational Dynamics, I would have no idea that China is like a pressure cooker ready to explode. The news is all about Russia, Russia, Russia, rarely about China except for trade war with the U.S. I am already 70, so in 5 years, I may or may not be one of the surviving 3-4 billion. Generally, life has been good, we'll see how this plays out. Looking forward to your book on China.

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

John wrote:** 2-Feb-2019 When will World War III begin?
...

How long will WW III last? Based on my research on major wars in
history, I would estimate five years, give or take a year.

By the end of that period, every nuclear weapon on earth will have been used.
Some people are predicting the end of humanity or a dark age, but I
don't buy that at all. I estimate that 3-4 billion people will be
killed from nuclear weapons, conventional weapons, ground war, riots,
disease, famine -- the Four Horsemen, and more.

Even during the war,
technology development and commerce will continue in parts of the
world, and when it's all over, there will be 3-4 billion people left
to rebuild the world, hold a new peace conference, form a new United
Nations, and form a new European Union. Everything old will be new
again.

I used to think that America might lose to China, but I no longer
think so. Chinese missiles will destroy many American cities, but
America itself will survive. ...
This is a great "scenario" for some speculative fiction about WWIII. I may dive into making a "sketch" of how it might unfold, in general terms and broad brushstrokes.

An interesting development regarding "cancer from all that fallout" resulting from the use of all those nukes, that I heard about recently, is that within a "few years" there may be a patient specific targetted "cure" (treatment) for cancer, being developed by some group in Israel.

The "elites" on both sides know that massive radiation of the environment is a very likely probability, and I believe that they will not allow WWIII to commence until they KNOW that their families (and themselves) will survive this radiation.

And this is why Israel will be "protected" by all sides until it has developed, and dispersed, the tech for "curing" the effects of radiation.

I also believe that 5G telecommunications need to be fully developed and implemented, along with a truly "worldwide/global" satellite "web" of super high speed internet/commNetwork based on 5G tech, before WWIII will be "allowed" to start.

A "pee break" trigger to WWIII may be the "apparent" cause of the upcoming "troubles", but such a trigger needs for the powder keg to be "loaded and exposed properly" for that trigger, or any other, to ignite the actual war.

The powder is just now being loaded into the keg, and no vulnerable "holes" are being allowed to be present at this time, as the "elites" on both sides are not yet ready,.. and by "ready" I mean: "Assured that they and their families will survive as the future leaders of the New World."

..but by 2023, this may have changed. See developments regarding 5G technology and anti-cancer (and other survival) technologies.

WWIII is too big a "project" (and it is a deliberated project of the "elites") to leave things to chance.

Sleep well babes... you're safe for a while. But time does grow short! Start work on those tiny boats! :) Aloha!

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