Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Posted: Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:22 am
** 11-Feb-2019 Genocidal climax of generational crisis war
an "explosive climax," which is usually some genocidal act so horrific
that it traumatizes everyone and it convinces the traumatized people
on both sides that it's not worth fighting any longer.
During generational Awakening and Unraveling eras, tensions grow. In
the case of a civil war between two ethnic or religious groups,
society alternates between low-level violence and ceasefires until the
next bout of violence. Once the nation enters a generational Crisis
era, then both sides become impatient and start crossing red lines
("Regeneracy events") until the genocide gets so
bad that one side or the other surrenders and the fighting
stops.
A recent example of these concepts in the Sri Lanka civil
war which I was able to follow fairly close in its final years.
What was interesting was that when the climax occurred in 2009,
every analyst in the world seemd to make the same mistake you did,
and assumed that fighting would continue. I wrote that it
was the same as the end of WW II and that fighting would stop.
It turned out that Generational Dynamics was right, and
every other analyst in the world was wrong.
** Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e080104
** Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e090517
** Tamil Tigers renounce violence, to join Sri Lanka political process
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... m#e090525b
I'm wary of making the assumption that it will be impossible to
manufacture new nukes. Particularly in a vast country like China,
there are bound to be secret manufacturing facilities built into
mountains somewhere, and once all the spy satellites have been knocked
out of the sky, it will be impossible to find them.
Every generational crisis war ends with genocide -- with what I callzzazz wrote: > If as many GD posts suggest, the next big war is the genocidal
> kind, then analyses of the aftermath should account for the fact
> that in a genocidal war the targeting will be different.
> Specifically, instead of having the bulk of the nukes incoming to
> North America targeting missile silos located in the desolate
> areas near the Dakota bad lands they will instead target cities,
> nuclear reactors, spent nuclear fuel storage depots, and major
> dams. It is true that the most dangerous radiotelephones quickly
> decay out of spent nuclear fuel, but the resulting radiation is
> still at least twice as bad as it would have been.
> Waring parties will immediately lose the ability to manufacture
> new nukes as well as any other modern weapon, so there will be
> weapon hoarding, which in turn means that the destruction will be
> drawn out, perhaps over decades as hoarded weapons are gradually
> used to wipe out the enemy's attempts to reorganize a
> civilization.
an "explosive climax," which is usually some genocidal act so horrific
that it traumatizes everyone and it convinces the traumatized people
on both sides that it's not worth fighting any longer.
During generational Awakening and Unraveling eras, tensions grow. In
the case of a civil war between two ethnic or religious groups,
society alternates between low-level violence and ceasefires until the
next bout of violence. Once the nation enters a generational Crisis
era, then both sides become impatient and start crossing red lines
("Regeneracy events") until the genocide gets so
bad that one side or the other surrenders and the fighting
stops.
A recent example of these concepts in the Sri Lanka civil
war which I was able to follow fairly close in its final years.
What was interesting was that when the climax occurred in 2009,
every analyst in the world seemd to make the same mistake you did,
and assumed that fighting would continue. I wrote that it
was the same as the end of WW II and that fighting would stop.
It turned out that Generational Dynamics was right, and
every other analyst in the world was wrong.
** Sri Lanka government declares all out war against Tamil Tiger rebels
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e080104
** Tamil Tigers surrender, ending the Sri Lanka crisis civil war
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e090517
** Tamil Tigers renounce violence, to join Sri Lanka political process
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... m#e090525b
I'm wary of making the assumption that it will be impossible to
manufacture new nukes. Particularly in a vast country like China,
there are bound to be secret manufacturing facilities built into
mountains somewhere, and once all the spy satellites have been knocked
out of the sky, it will be impossible to find them.