Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 02-Jan-2020 World View: Navies and reserve currency

> It's not just figurative "mass and momentum", either.

> The US has the only navy capable of guaranteeing sea lanes world
> wide. While we currently guarantee them for everyone, we don't
> have to do that. I could easily imagine a situation where the US
> tacitly permits pirates open season on nondollar trade.

> China is currently trying to develop the capability to protect her
> own transport lanes to Europe. However, that's not sustainable,
> because China has no domestic need for more than a coastal navy.
> Even if Xi manages to build a blue water navy, the next leader, or
> the next, will decide it's a waste of money and take it out of
> commission.

> The US, however, needs a blue water navy capable of controlling
> most of the world's oceans - north and south Pacific, north and
> south Atlantic - just to keep its own coasts connected. Once that
> navy exists, it's relatively easy for the US to patrol all of the
> world's oceans, and reap the benefits of controlling the world's
> reserve currency.

Relating the currency to the two navies is an interesting way of
looking at it.

I've done several dozen articles on China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
and each makes me feel more strongly that China is vastly overextending
itself.

Kenya is a good example. Kenya is caught in a debt trap, and is in
danger of losing Port Mombasa to the Chinese. Even worse, the
way the one-sided contract was written, the Chinese could take almost
any Kenyan asset in lieu of debt payments, even Kenyas embassies in
other countries.

On top of that, the Chinese workers loathe the Kenyan workers in
Kenya, and pay themselves huge salaries out of the money that China
lent to Kenya, and forces the Kenyans to take menial jobs in their
own countries.

It's amazing. The Chinese lend Kenya the money. Kenya uses the money
to pay the Chinese workers, who spend it on their own Chinese
businesses in theor own Chinese enclaves. Kenya has to use the money
to purchase parts and equipment from factories in China. So China
lends the Kenya the money, Kenya sends the money back to China in the
form of salaries and equipment purchases, and then still has to repay
the money to China, along with exhorbitant interest, or else lose
their ports, infrastructure and assets.

This is happening in country after country. China is spending a lot
of reserves with all these BRI projects -- money that they won't give
back -- and also is overextending its navy. Furthermore, they're
pissing off a lot of people in a lot of countries, and they are going
to target Chinese families in Chinese enclaves. Remember the "ugly
American?" At least we don't think we're the Master Race, and
everyone else is a barbarian. The "ugly CCP" is much worse.

[John]

** 02-Jan-2020 World View: US airstrike kills IRGC leader Soleimani

• Gen. Qassim Soleimani (when he was alive)

Gen. Qassim Soleimani, Iran's most important military figure, and head
of the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as killed in an
airstrike at Baghdad’s international airport. It is presumed that
it was an American airstrike.

The strike also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a top Iraqi military
figure, the deputy commander of Iran-backed militias known as the
Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq.

This will be a major shock to the hardline geezers at the top of
Iran's government, who have gotten used to making attacks on Strait of
Hormuz vessels, Saudi Arabia oil refineries, and American bases, and
getting away with them with no response.

So this time there was a response.

This has not yet been confirmed by President Trump or the Pentagon,
but Senator Chris Murphy, the so-called "Mideast expert" on the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee, tweeted:

> "Soleimani was an enemy of the United States, that is
> not a question. The question is this: reports suggest, did
> America just assassinate, without any congressional authorization,
> the second most powerful person in Iran, knowingly setting off a
> potential massive global regional war."

So Murphy, whom I've repeatedly described as the stupidest person in
the Senate, is accusing Trump of knowingly trying to start a world
war. Why do these idiots keep getting quoted? The tweet was quoted
on al-Jazeera with no comment. Al-Jazeera seems to love repeating
stupid quotes from Murphy, apparently to illustrate to the Arab
audience how dumb the Americans are.

Anyway, the attacks on the American embassy in Baghdad fizzled within
a day, but the massive anti-Iran protests in many cities in Iraq are
continuing.

Al-Jazeera is saying that the death of Soleimani will be a major loss
to the IRGC and to Iran, as

Soleimani has led many military actions, especially in Iraq and Syria.
He was also a fighter in Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution civil
war.

The story is developing.

---- Source:

-- Qassim Soleimani / Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis / Iran’s Gen. Soleimani
killed in airstrike at Baghdad airport
https://apnews.com/5597ff0f046a67805cc233d5933a53ed
(AP, 2-Jan-2020)


---- Related:

** 1-Jan-20 World View -- US sends troops to Baghdad to defend embassy from Iranian rioters
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200101


************** UPDATE 21:30 ET:
Al-Jazeera is reporting that anti-Iran protesters in Baghdad are
celebrating Soleimani's death. This is absolutely no surprise,
except to anti-American idiots.

************** UPDATE 21:50 ET:
The Pentagon has just confirmed the airstrikes.

************** UPDATE 22:03 ET:
Massive celebrations and expressions of joy in Tahrir Square,
Baghdad.


************** UPDATE 22:15 ET:
Soleimani's death is a major shock in Tehran, where he was revered and
considered to be almost invincible. In contrast to Baghdad, people in
Tehran are crying.

************** UPDATE 22:22 ET:
Mike Pregent, a Trump advisor, appearing on the BBC:
- This will give Iraq a chance - the Iraqi military can push
back against the Iran forces.
- One of the options presented to Trump last week was to kill
Soleimani
- The reason the protesters are cheering in Tahrir Square is
that it was Soleimani who approved the killing of peaceful
anti-Iran protesters.

[Guest]

It's about time! Go Trump!

[MAGA]

It's about time! Go Trump!

Trump. Winning.

[Guest]

This will be a chance for the secular core of both Iran and Turkey to get rid of Islamic rule. Young and old are disillusioned. Let this end now. I am tired. I am tired.

Javid Shah !!!

[ARABIA]

This will be a major shock to the hardline geezers at the top of
Iran's government, who have gotten used to making attacks on Strait of
Hormuz vessels, Saudi Arabia oil refineries, and American bases, and
getting away with them with no response.

So this time there was a response.

Inshallah.

My country (Saudi Arabia) is a totalitarian extremest Wahhabi state. The intelligent shah governed Iran wisely until he was overthrown by the ignorant. May lord bless your soul in to eternity. Iranian are paying greatly for their stupidity for what they done to you.

Peace. Peace, and only peace to my Persian brothers and hopefully one day we get rid of fundamental religious authoritarian governments and have freedom and peace.

Salam Alaikum

[Tom Mazanec]

China Just Escalated Their Brutal Persecution Of Christians To An Entirely New Level
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archiv ... -new-level

Iran at the Flash Point
https://www.americanthinker.com/article ... point.html

[John]

** 03-Jan-2020 World View: Iran's threat of retaliation

> Any thoughts on where this will go? If Iran is in an awakening
> period, the country won't support prolonged fighting against the
> US. Will the IRGC and the various militias formerly managed by
> Soleimani try to extract revenge with attacks on US forces, or
> will they not even attempt that?

> I can see it accelerating the generational turnover in Iran, so
> it's looking like your prediction of Iran becoming a US ally has
> some hope.

There's been a lot of hysterical bluster coming out of Iran for the
last 12 hours, calling Americans monsters, and promising retaliation
leading to destruction to America and Israel. Blah, blah, blah.

There's no doubt that Iran's geezers want to retaliate, and it will be
interesting to see how they do that. They're almost completely
boxed in. Their military playbook for years has been covert attacks
on Americans and on Saudi assets, and in funding terrorist groups in
the region. Then they always step back back and blame it all on
America and Israel.

I listened to one Tehran pundit last night list one event after
another in the last 40 years, and it was amazing how he blamed every
on America. He even blamed the 1979 Islamic Revolution on America.
It was an amazing tour de force.

The point is that Iran always maintains deniability. If Iran
attacks an oil tanker in the Gulf of Hormuz, they deny having anything
to do with it, no matter what the evidence.

So what kind of retaliation are they going to try now? Will they maintain
deniability, or will they make an overt attack on American assets?
And if they do, where will they do that? In Iraq?

And that brings us to Iraq. Soleimani was an Iranian hero of the
Iran/Iraq war. Soleimani may be beloved in Iran, but he's hated
in Iraq, because he killed lots of Iraqis, and continued to kill
Iraqis in terror attacks since then.

The Iranians are saying that America has violate Iraqi sovereignty.
In fact, America is there at the invitation of Iraq, at least to
help remaining ISIS cells. Iraq got burned when America left
Iraq in 2011, in that ISIS was in control of 2/3 of the country
by 2014, so the Iraqis don't want to go through that again.

But the Iraqis are also telling Iran not to violate Iraqi sovereignty
by attacking America on Iraqi soil.

So we know that Iran is going to retaliate, but they have very few
choices. Maybe cyber. Maybe fund Hezbollah to do a terrorist act
somewhere in South America. Maybe an IRGC attack on American assets
in Syria. So Iran has plenty of choices, but few of them are more
than symbolic. We'll just have to wait and see.

Once again, it's important to remember that Iran and Iraq are in
generational Awakening eras, and both countries ae facing large
anti-government and anti-Iran protests. It's not America, but it's
these protests that are frightening the hell out of Iran's hardline
geezers, and they will be more worried about how any retaliatory step
against Americans will affect those protests.

Soleimani was a war hero in Iran, so the streets of Tehran are filled
with anti-American protesters, but that's only temporary. When that
fervor ends, the Iranian people will still be living in poverty, and
will still hate the hardline geezers that they've been protesting
against for years.

There will NOT be a war between American and Iran. But as Ive said
many times, a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia at some point is
certain.

[John]

** 03-Jan-2020 World View: China vs Iran

Both China and Iran have evil, malevolant governments -- the hardline
geezer survivors of the 1979 civil war in Iran, the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) thugs in China. And so it would seem that the two are
very similar.

But we can see some dramatic differences that follow from the fact
that China is deep into a generational Crisis era, and is highly
nationalistic and xenophobic, while Iran is in a generational
Awakening era, with a deeply split population, where the young people
are pro-American and pro-Western and want the hardline geezers to be
gone. Imagine if you can, Dear Reader, what would happen if Trump
ordered a drone strike to kill a high-level Chinese military official
as he was traveling in Korea or Taiwan. China would already have
warplanes and missiles in the air. That's what a country does in a
generational Crisis era.

But Iran's reactions are much more subdued. They have lots of pundits
and politicians screaming anti-American statements and threatening the
destruction of America and Israel -- but that's what Iran's pundits
and politicians have been doing for 40 years years anyway. There's no
change. Iran is much more worried about anti-Iran protests in Iran
and Iraq. Worrying about protests is what a country does in a
generational Awakening era.

But China and Iran do in fact have some similar objectives. Neither
of them wants a war with the US unless absolutely necessary. But they
both want American forces to leave their respective regions. The CCP
thugs want American forces gone so that they they have a free hand to
invade and annex Taiwan, and to invade Japan and get revenge for WW II
by colonizing Japan and enslaving the Japanese. Neither of those are
possible with American forces in the region, ready to oppose Chinese
forces.

Iran's hardline geezers want Americans gone so that they can complete
the "Shia crescent" -- replacing the Ottoman Empire with a new Persian
Empire, taking control of Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, pushing
Israel into the sea, and developing nuclear weapons. American forces
in the region are blocking all these objectives. So both China and
Iran just want America, the "Policeman of the World," to disappear and
stop policing.

The speculation continues wildly about how Iran will retaliate.
Various officials in other countries -- Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon
-- are expressing the hope that Iran will not retaliate on the US in
their countries, and any Iran attack on American in one of those
countries would violate that country's sovereignty.

Some speculation is that Hezbollah will conduct some terrorist attack
against America and Israel. Hezbollah is already poor, because of the
anti-Iran sanctions, and weak from having fought for years in Syria.
At any rate, America and Israel are always ready for a Hezbollah
terrorist attack.

One reason that Iran is boxed in is because it has been conducting war
against the United States for years, and has done so with no response,
with impunity. Here are some of the things that Iran has done lately
to attack the US and allies:

• Shooting down a US drone with a surface-to-air missile
  over the Strait of Hormuz in June.
• Multiple attacks on oil tanks in the Persian Gulf and the
  Sea of Oman
• Attacking Aramco oil refineries in Saudi Arabia
• Months of artillery attacks on American bases in Iraq,
  finally killing an American on Friday.
• Attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad. This is generally considered
  to be an act of war.

So they could repeat these kinds of actions -- which wouldn't even be
a change from what they've been doing anyway. Or they could violate
another country's sovereignty (Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan).

China, in a generational Crisis era, could attack and not worry about
the consequences. Iran, in a generational Awakening era, is very
worried about anti-Iran protests in Iraq and Iran, and would worry
that any attack could backfire on Iran.

So now, as the screaming and outrage against America's assassination
of Soleimani starts to fade, attention will turn to international
criticism of any actions that Iran takes in retaliation.

[Tom Mazanec]

Air strikes targeting Iraqi militia kill six: army source
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq ... SKBN1Z229P