Generational Dynamics World View News

[Guest]

Is war in Korea close? Or will Taiwan be first?

Or maybe the Philippines. Or maybe Australia. Or Japan.
Or maybe the Mideast or Europe.

Weeks or months away?

[Guest]

From 2002 to 2023 the ethnic Italian population in Italy declined from 97.64% Italian to roughly 87%. A drop of 10 points in just two decades.

Similarly between 2002 t0 2023 the native Spanish population has rapidly declined from 95.76% of Spain's population to just 83% today. A decline of 12 points since the turn of the century. More than 20% of all births in Spain are to immigrants.

In Greece the native population has declined from 92.73% of the population in 2001 to 88.8% of the population in 2023. A 4 point decline and the lowest rate of population replacement in the region.

From 2005 to 2022 the native Maltese have been reduced from 97% of their country's population to 76.4%. A 23 point decline in just over 16 years, and the largest drop in the region.

And in Portugal the native Portuguese have, from 2002 to 2023 dropped from 97% of their country's population to 87%. A decline of 10 points in 20 years.

[Guest]

I remember John saying a couple years ago that he believed Russia's invasion of Ukraine would ultimately trigger a wider war. In the last few days, we've taken a big step closer to that.

For all intents and purposes, we've cut them off from further aid. Trump wanted the aid bill killed, so it was killed right on the cusp of a deal being made. The House Speaker faces a lot of pressure from both sides to bring it to a vote, but so far, he's remained adamant. Even if it's eventually passed, that's months in which Russia was allowed to gain strength.

Russia still hasn't managed any huge breakthroughs, but despite paying a massive price in blood, they possess the initiative. The prospect of the U.S. leaving the rest of NATO to its fate seems to have prompted them to action. Macron's speaking of sending French troops to Ukraine, albeit in a non-combat role. Poland, Lithuania, and Finland are mentioning the possibility as well. https://www.businessinsider.com/finish- ... table-2024

Yes, we've had special forces in Ukraine for some time, mostly in a training capacity. While they wouldn't technically be on the front lines, similar to Soviet and Chinese troops in North Vietnam, that's still a major step toward the wider conflict John mentioned.

Public opinion's swung all over the place. When war broke out, most thought it would be like a Russian Desert Storm. When Ukraine held firm and repelled them from Kiev and Kharkiv, they switched to believing Putin would be forced out, and after the 2022 counteroffensive, convinced Russian lines would soon collapse. Instead, Putin has several hundred thousand troops in occupied territory and moved to a wartime footing, something the EU has only made tentative steps toward doing.

If Russia makes to take significant ground in a short period similar to 2022, it might just spook the EU enough to send troops of its own. May you live in interesting times, indeed.

Russian economic data is published online each month. Over last months it has become delayed with increasing redaction. Dec ‘23 only came out 10 days ago. It shows oil exports down between 20-35+% depending on product. Refined most down.

Refineries were running with inefficiencies as a result, hence Putin banned petroleum exports for 9 out of 12 by oct 24. Now his refinery catalytic distillation units are being hit by UKR drones, further (seriously) impacting efficiency.

Currency limitations and sanctions are causing inflation, the money pumped in to defence spiking gdp is illusory whilst the economy is starting to run hotter as inflation grows.

Spin all this forward and pretty soon Putin has a problem. His police won’t be there to oppress the rioters if they are not getting paid too.

Ukraine just needs to nudge a few more 30-50% of refinery capacity out and the entire industry will be running with significantly problematic efficiency issues.

[Guest]

"Should we give over our future to the American electorate? My answer is no. Let's not wait for the outcome" - President Macron

Europe is giving up on America.

[Guest]

Putin is preparing for a full-scale war against NATO countries, - Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

[Bob Butler]

Putin is preparing for a full-scale war against NATO countries, - Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Putin is struggling to fight Ukraine to a standstill. It takes a lot less effort to threaten NATO than to fight it. I think any further expansion will wait on Ukraine's fall and will not be against a NATO country, but it is safer not to assume that.

[Navigator]

Quick note - US troops now on the Taiwanese islands within sight of China (Kinmen county on Google maps). This is to show Taiwan that US support will be forthcoming even if just outer islands are attacked. It does improve Taiwan's security, which would be seriously degraded if China took the outer islands, and US support was not immediately forthcoming.

Of course, It also heightens tensions btwn US and CCP.

As for the timing question asked repeatedly - all I can say is that everything has been in place for quite some time now. It could happen tomorrow or in 18 months. But it WILL happen.

[Guest]

I've always struggled to think big enough to take suggestions of a globalist, one world government seriously. But now that we see it manifesting through the west I start to wonder how much control and influence do the master race have through the middle east and beyond. Dark times.

[Guest]

Quick note - US troops now on the Taiwanese islands within sight of China (Kinmen county on Google maps). This is to show Taiwan that US support will be forthcoming even if just outer islands are attacked. It does improve Taiwan's security, which would be seriously degraded if China took the outer islands, and US support was not immediately forthcoming.

Of course, It also heightens tensions btwn US and CCP.

As for the timing question asked repeatedly - all I can say is that everything has been in place for quite some time now. It could happen tomorrow or in 18 months. But it WILL happen.

Will Russia's proxy Serbia attack Kosovo? Serbia is like North Korea to China.

[John]

** 21-Mar-2024 World View: Market highs

The markets have been going straight up
since November, almost without pause.
Gee, I guess they're going to be going
up forever.