Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

4-Jan-20 World View -- Iran faces tough choices after Soleimani assassination

Iran's disastrous miscalculation after 40 years of war

** 4-Jan-20 World View -- Iran faces tough choices after Soleimani assassination
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200104





Contents:
Iran faces tough choices after Soleimani assassination
Iran's disastrous miscalculation after 40 years of war
US airstrike kills IRGC leader Soleimani
Iran plans for retaliation
Threats of war between Iran and America
Some known unknowns
The future of Iran
Update


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Iran, Iraq, Qassim Soleiman
Rebecca Kesby, Ghanbar Naderi, Kayhan International,
Islamic revolution, Iran/Iraq war, Iranian Hostage Crisis,
Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Saudi Arabia, Aramco, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Hamas, Israel

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Is Doug Casey a friend of yours, John? :D
Doug Casey’s Top 7 Predictions for the 2020s
https://internationalman.com/articles/d ... the-2020s/
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

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** 04-Jan-2020 World View: Doug Casey
Tom Mazanec wrote: > Is Doug Casey a friend of yours, John? :D Doug Casey’s Top 7
> Predictions for the 2020s
> https://internationalman.com/articles/d ... the-2020s/
The media is swamped with all sorts of predictions for 2020. These
predictions by Doug Casey are all pretty silly political predictions.
I don't know Doug Casey, but I don't think I have any friends anywhere
anymore anyway.

Burner Prime

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Burner Prime »

John, you didn't cite this story in your article but it closely reflects what you said about the Iranian people and their attitude about the situation. In short, their heart isn't into it. They are suffering economic hardship and government repression.

From Bloomberg - through Yahoo
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fear-hit ... 24630.html

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

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** 04-Jan-2020 World View: Iran economy
Burner Prime wrote: > John, you didn't cite this story in your article but it closely
> reflects what you said about the Iranian people and their attitude
> about the situation. In short, their heart isn't into it. They are
> suffering economic hardship and government repression.

> From Bloomberg - through Yahoo
> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fear-hit ... 24630.html
That's a great article. Here's the Bloomberg link:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -come-next

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

John wrote:** 04-Jan-2020 World View: Doug Casey
Tom Mazanec wrote: > Is Doug Casey a friend of yours, John? :D Doug Casey’s Top 7
> Predictions for the 2020s
> https://internationalman.com/articles/d ... the-2020s/
The media is swamped with all sorts of predictions for 2020. These
predictions by Doug Casey are all pretty silly political predictions.
I don't know Doug Casey, but I don't think I have any friends anywhere
anymore anyway.
I was thinking of his agreement with you on war with China and the Singularity.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 05-Jan-2020 World View: Iraq 'votes' for US withdrawal

Iraq's parliament has voted to "call for" the withdrawal of US troops.
But it's non-binding, and the session was boycotted by the Sunni and
Kurdish groups, so only the Iran-backed MPs voted for it. It's
reported that these MPs are under enormous pressure from Iran.

Opposition figures in Iraq say that Iraq will no longer be able to
defend itself without the support of American troops and point to the
fact that ISIS took over 2/3 of the country the last time that the US
withdrew. Most Iraqis do not trust Iran-backed People's Mobilization
Forces (PMFs) to protect Iraq, and many consider the PMFs to be worse
than ISIS. Even those who dislike America's assassination of
Soleimani still trust America far more than they trust the PMFs.

Protesters in the Iraqi streets have been calling for Iran to
withdraw.

Iraq's government is in shambles, with the prime minister having had
to resign because of the recent massive anti-Iran anti-government
protests in the streets. The acting PM cannot do much until there's a
new election.

Iran's puppet Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah gave the usual
speech on Sunday about how horrible Americans are, but did not go
farther to say that Hezbollah would participate in the retaliation
against America. Al-Jazeera says that this omission is a surprise,
but it's happening because Lebanon's government is itself in shambles,
because of recent massive anti-government protests, and they don't
want Lebanon to be dragged into the clash between US and Iran.

In Washington, the hysterics continue. The idiots are no longer
predicting war by Monday, so the idiots have already been forced to
back down from that certain prediction. Now they're just saying that
killing Soleimani will turn out to be the greatest foreign policy
blunder in the history of the country, or possibly the world.

The basics that I've described in my last two articles have not
changed, in terms of generational attitudes following from the
extremely bloody Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, which killed 1.5 million
people. None of the idiots that you hear on TV take into account
Iran's history, Iraq's history, or that many Iranians hate Iraqis, and
that many Iraqis hate Iranians, after the atrocities they perpetrated
on each other in the 1980s.

As usual, if you want to believe stupid things, then listen to the
idiots in Washington. If you want to know what's actually going on in
the world, then follow the Generational Dynamics analyses that I've
been posting.

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

John, I'm not so sure that you are taking religion into account properly.
Religion made me do something you didn't like or expect last year, and religion may hake the leaders of Iran do something you do not expect.
See http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... -the-mahdi
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 06-Jan-2020 World View: The Iran hysteria

The hysteria continues. I've just heard a lengthy report on MS-NBC
from Richard Engel, NBC News, Chief Foreign Correspondent. He says
that he's never seen anything like these crowds. He's says they're
all crying. He says that the assassination of Soleimani has
spectacularly backfired on Trump. He said that two months ago, Iran's
government was in crisis because the streets were crowded with
anti-government protesters, and now the assassination has united "all
factions" of Iran's government into anti-Trump protests. Now there
are massive shows of support not only for the government but also for
the IRGC.

Engel: "This is a seminal moment. It shows that all people -- young
people, old people -- all are now behind their government in a way
that they were not just a few weeks ago."

You would think that Richard Engel, NBC News Chief Foreign
Correspondent, wouldn't be such an idiot, wouldn't you? According to
Engel, all those young people who have been protesting for years about
the poverty, corruption and incompetence of Iran's government have
suddenly changed their minds, and now they ignore the government,
despite the poverty, corruption and incompetence.

In just the last couple of months, Soleimani oversaw the brutal
torture, rape, jailing and murder of thousands of peaceful mostly
young anti-government protesters, and it never occurs to Engel and the
other idiots that the reason that they're all crying is because
they've been ordered to go out into the streets and cry, and may even
have been given some financial incentive to do so, as other reports
have suggested.

I have an interesting speculation about this situation. A lot of the
young people in the streets now weeping over the death of Soleimani
are just happy to be out in the streets at all, without being tortured
or killed by the IRGC. The speculation is that they see this as an
opportunity to make to turn these street demonstrations around into
anti-government protests as soon as they can when the current fervor
ends. The IRGC would be able to torture and kill them because these
anti-government protests would be in the international spotlight.
That's just speculation.

On the other hand, we're all shocked that the NY Times lead opinion
writer, Thomas Friedman, apparently supports the assassination:
"Thomas L. Friedman - Trump Kills Iran’s Most
Overrated Warrior

One day they may name a street after President Trump in
Tehran. Why? Because Trump just ordered the assassination of
possibly the dumbest man in Iran and the most overrated strategist
in the Middle East: Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/opin ... imani.html
Friedman goes on to explain why Soleimani was such a disaster.

Friedman actually does know a great deal about Iran and the Mideast.
In my book on Iran, I quoted at length some of the things that
Friedman wrote in 2002, including the following:
"Iran has the bomb. ... No, no not that bomb. This
bomb is hiding in plain sight -- in high schools, universities and
coffee houses. It is a bomb that is ticking away under Iranian
society, and over the next decade it will explode in ways that
will change the face of this Islamic Republic. It's called here,
for short, ''The Third Generation.'' ...

The third generation are those Iranians from 16 to 30 who have
come of age entirely under Islamic rule. They never knew the
Shah's despotism. They have known only the ayatollahs'. There are
now 18 million of them -- roughly a third of Iran's population --
and they include 2 million university students and 4 million
recent university grads. ...

Quick quiz: Which Muslim Middle East country held spontaneous
candlelight vigils in sympathy with Americans after Sept. 11?
Kuwait? No. Saudi Arabia? No. Iran? Yes. You got it! You win a
free trip to Iran. And if you come you'll discover not only a
Muslim country where many people were sincerely sympathetic to
America after Sept. 11, but a country where so many people on the
street are now talking about -- and hoping for -- a reopening of
relations with America that the ruling hard-liners had to take the
unprecedented step two weeks ago of making it illegal for anyone
to speak about it in public."
So Friedman, at least, uniquely has some idea what's going on in Iran,
and even understands some generational theory.

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Reduced Tensions with China Unlikely in New Year
https://www.americanthinker.com/article ... _year.html
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

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