Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 20-Oct-2020 World View: Milk Tea Alliance

> Thank you for this insightful article. I knew the Thai military
> had a pro-China bias, but I didn't know the reason why.

> That being said, Thailand has very close ties with the US and is
> even considered to be a "major non-NATO ally." Do you believe the
> current ethnic tensions are strong enough for the Thai monarchy,
> military, and upper class to side with the CCP against the US in
> the event of war between the two superpowers?

Thank you very much for your contribution and for your support in the
past. It is greatly appreciated.

A few months ago, I wrote an article about the "Milk-Tea alliance"
involving mostly young people in Thailand, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, who
are strongly anti-CCP.

** 8-May-20 World View -- Milk-Tea twitter war links Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Philippines against China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200508


The anti-government, anti-CCP protesters in Thailand are young people
in the Thai-Thai red shirt ethnic group from northern Thailand, which
has fought numerous wars with Bangkok.

The anti-government, anti-CCP protesters in Hong Kong are young people
who speak Cantonese (as opposed to Mandarin), descended from southern
China, where there have been historic massive anti-Beijing rebellions.

** 22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190622


These groups in Thailand and Hong Kong are supporting each other in
anti-government protests, and are sharing techniques.

The protests in Taiwan are different in that they're pro-government
(since the government is anti-CCP) and they're not restricted to young
people.

The "Milk Tea Alliance" and the hashtag #MilkTeaAlliance are becoming
symbols in a growing pan-Asia anti-CCP youth movement that has the
potential to become divisive political issues in several countries.

And now a new development is that India's government is apparently
joining the alliance.

• A poster of the Taiwan-India Milk Tea Alliance that was put
  up by the governing BJP party near China's embassy in New Delhi on Oct
  10, resulting in the typically hysterical screams of Chinese fury
  (Diplomat)

Anger over China's invasion of India's Galwan Valley in Ladakh several
months ago, and anger at China over inflicting the Wuhan Coronavirus,
apparently intentionally, on over 180 countries around the world, have
caused India's prime minister Narendra Modi to play the "Taiwan card"
by providing support to the anti-CCP Milk Tea alliance.

---- Sources:

-- Thailand and Hong Kong are brewing an anti-authoritarian
#MilkTeaAlliance
https://qz.com/1919253/what-is-the-milk-tea-alliance/
(Quartz, 19-Oct-2020)

-- The Taiwan–India ‘Milk Tea Alliance’
https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/the-tai ... -alliance/
(Diplomat, 20-Oct-2020)

-- International ‘Milk Tea Alliance’ Faces Down Authoritarian Govts
https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/ ... 52640.html
(Benar News, 14-Oct-2020)

---- Related article:

** 19-Oct-20 World View -- Thousands of pro-democracy protesters in Bangkok demand reform of Thailand's monarchy
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e201019

[DaKardii]

** 20-Oct-2020 World View: Milk Tea Alliance

> Thank you for this insightful article. I knew the Thai military
> had a pro-China bias, but I didn't know the reason why.

> That being said, Thailand has very close ties with the US and is
> even considered to be a "major non-NATO ally." Do you believe the
> current ethnic tensions are strong enough for the Thai monarchy,
> military, and upper class to side with the CCP against the US in
> the event of war between the two superpowers?

Thank you very much for your contribution and for your support in the
past. It is greatly appreciated.

A few months ago, I wrote an article about the "Milk-Tea alliance"
involving mostly young people in Thailand, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, who
are strongly anti-CCP.

** 8-May-20 World View -- Milk-Tea twitter war links Thailand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Philippines against China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200508


The anti-government, anti-CCP protesters in Thailand are young people
in the Thai-Thai red shirt ethnic group from northern Thailand, which
has fought numerous wars with Bangkok.

The anti-government, anti-CCP protesters in Hong Kong are young people
who speak Cantonese (as opposed to Mandarin), descended from southern
China, where there have been historic massive anti-Beijing rebellions.

** 22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190622


These groups in Thailand and Hong Kong are supporting each other in
anti-government protests, and are sharing techniques.

The protests in Taiwan are different in that they're pro-government
(since the government is anti-CCP) and they're not restricted to young
people.

The "Milk Tea Alliance" and the hashtag #MilkTeaAlliance are becoming
symbols in a growing pan-Asia anti-CCP youth movement that has the
potential to become divisive political issues in several countries.

And now a new development is that India's government is apparently
joining the alliance.

• A poster of the Taiwan-India Milk Tea Alliance that was put
  up by the governing BJP party near China's embassy in New Delhi on Oct
  10, resulting in the typically hysterical screams of Chinese fury
  (Diplomat)

Anger over China's invasion of India's Galwan Valley in Ladakh several
months ago, and anger at China over inflicting the Wuhan Coronavirus,
apparently intentionally, on over 180 countries around the world, have
caused India's prime minister Narendra Modi to play the "Taiwan card"
by providing support to the anti-CCP Milk Tea alliance.

---- Sources:

-- Thailand and Hong Kong are brewing an anti-authoritarian
#MilkTeaAlliance
https://qz.com/1919253/what-is-the-milk-tea-alliance/
(Quartz, 19-Oct-2020)

-- The Taiwan–India ‘Milk Tea Alliance’
https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/the-tai ... -alliance/
(Diplomat, 20-Oct-2020)

-- International ‘Milk Tea Alliance’ Faces Down Authoritarian Govts
https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/ ... 52640.html
(Benar News, 14-Oct-2020)

---- Related article:

** 19-Oct-20 World View -- Thousands of pro-democracy protesters in Bangkok demand reform of Thailand's monarchy
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e201019

But do you believe that the current Thai government (and the factions behind it) will side with the CCP in the upcoming war?

[John]

** 21-Oct-2020 World View: Thailand and CCP

> But do you believe that the current Thai government (and the
> factions behind it) will side with the CCP in the upcoming war?

Gee, did I evade that question last time?

It's not clear what "side with the CCP" would even mean. We can
assume that Thailand will be pro-CCP based on the current government,
but we know that governments end, and that the course of great events
is determined not by the politicians, but by the generations of
people, the populations. So based on the fact that 3/4 of the
population are the Thai-Thai indigenous red shirt majority, I would
expect that Thailand would resist getting into fights on China's
behalf, especially since Thailand is currently not in a generational
Crisis era, but in a generational Unraveling era, when wars are
resisted.

So, first of all, Thailand will try to stay neutral. If they're
successful in that, then they'll stay out of the war entirely, just as
Switzerland did in WW II.

However, if Thailand is forced into war, it will most likely be with
its traditional enemies -- Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, and perhaps
Burma. In those cases, it's not clear which side China will be on, or
whether China will even care, given its wars with Japan and Taiwan.

Xi Jinping has vowed to recover all of China's sacred historical
territory (just like Hitler wanted Austria and Poland), and that may
result in Chinese troops fighting with or against Thai troops,
depending on whose territory China is trying to illegally annex.

So I guess what I'm saying is that I really don't know, and that it
depends on how events unfold. In the case of countries like Russia
and Iran, there are centuries of historic trends to look at, but you
don't have anything like that in the Southeast Asian countries, which
are a jumble of Chinese, Indian and Muslim influences that have been
pasteurized and homogenized in different countries to produce
indigenous fault lines that are years or decades old, but not
centuries or millennia old, and could change very quickly, if the
country faces an existential threat.

[Guest]

So this is all clear as mud.

The youthful protesters in Thailand and Hong Kong are pro-democracy. The people of Taiwan are (mostly) anti-communists. The youthful protesters in America are pro-communism. Apparently, the youthful protesters in America don’t know much about the communism they support because they don’t talk to the youthful protesters in Thailand and Hong Kong or they would have learned a thing or two about the horrors of real life with commusocialism authoritarian rule.

The South Koreans are mixed up about who they would support, depending on who does what first. The Vietnamese, Philippians, Japanese and several other countries are in grave danger from the Chinese racists attacking them in the South China Sea and the US would defend them if China attacks them but if Biden wins, who the Communist Party loves, then we might just let China do what it wants so all those countries will be devastated and then the whole world will hate us for not defending them. But the whole world hates us now, according to Obama, because Trump is our President.

Turkey and Russia hate each other for various reasons, Russia likes Syria and Iran but Russia also likes Trump who hates Iran and Syria except that everyone hates Isis so we’ll all be cool together and get rid of those mf’s because they are likely to start a war somewhere and nobody wants a war. India and Pakistan hate each other and are near war at their border and India and China hate each other and are near war at that border. India and Iran like each other and don’t like the countries between them, but Iran hates America and India loves America. There is a Milk Tea Alliance between India and Taiwan that pisses off China so, since Pakistan likes China, India is likely to be attacked on two fronts. But if Biden wins, even though we love milk and tea here in America, we probably won’t help defend India because Biden loves China and he does not like milk or tea, even though he likes milkshakes, that’s not the same thing as milk because it’s made from ice cream. You can fact check that. But Biden also loves Iran, because they hate America and he does too.

But Europe, who the Democrats think did such a wonderful job of locking down their countries to get rid of the coronavirus, are now resurging with the stuff and their economies are trashed. In America, we are getting back on our feet but the resurgence of coronavirus is all Trumps fault because he banned travel from China and Europe and listened to the CDC for guidance but then he killed 200,000 Americans with a virus that China unleashed on the world but the Democrats think that Trump did it because they don’t believe anything bad about the Chinese and they believe all kinds of bad lies about Trump.

Africa countries owe too much money to all the other countries on Earth to really be on anyone’s side. Anyway, they hate each other so much and they kill each other so much that it’s not hard to just forget about them. I don’t know all that much about South America except that every country there is liable to be overthrown every now and again so who knows when or where that will happen. I have heard that Chile is wonderful because the government is open about UFO’s and tells the people the truth about them. I don’t know if their government tells the people the truth about anything else. There is so much lying going on everywhere that I think no one knows how to tell the truth anymore.

I think I would really like to move to Greenland because the ice is melting there and there should be some really fertile and rich soil underneath it all. I think there are about a thousand people who live there and I’m sure they are like me, they just want all this bad stuff in the world to go away.

But since I can’t move to Greenland, I really do appreciate this website that helps me at least know why the world is in such shambles and to prepare for it to get worse…then it will get better. Because that IS what happens according to Generational Dynamics. That’s the world I’m looking forward to. Thank you, John!

[Guest]

If Biden wins, then China wins.

That's something to think about.

[John]

** 22-Oct-2020 World View: Clear as mud

> So this is all clear as mud.

> The youthful protesters in Thailand and Hong Kong are
> pro-democracy. The people of Taiwan are (mostly)
> anti-communists. The youthful protesters in America are
> pro-communism. Apparently, the youthful protesters in America
> don’t know much about the communism they support because they
> don’t talk to the youthful protesters in Thailand and Hong Kong or
> they would have learned a thing or two about the horrors of real
> life with commusocialism authoritarian rule.

> The South Koreans are mixed up about who they would support,
> depending on who does what first. The Vietnamese, Philippians,
> Japanese and several other countries are in grave danger from the
> Chinese racists attacking them in the South China Sea and the US
> would defend them if China attacks them but if Biden wins, who the
> Communist Party loves, then we might just let China do what it
> wants so all those countries will be devastated and then the whole
> world will hate us for not defending them. But the whole world
> hates us now, according to Obama, because Trump is our President.

> Turkey and Russia hate each other for various reasons, Russia
> likes Syria and Iran but Russia also likes Trump who hates Iran
> and Syria except that everyone hates Isis so we’ll all be cool
> together and get rid of those mf’s because they are likely to
> start a war somewhere and nobody wants a war. India and Pakistan
> hate each other and are near war at their border and India and
> China hate each other and are near war at that border. India and
> Iran like each other and don’t like the countries between them,
> but Iran hates America and India loves America. There is a Milk
> Tea Alliance between India and Taiwan that pisses off China so,
> since Pakistan likes China, India is likely to be attacked on two
> fronts. But if Biden wins, even though we love milk and tea here
> in America, we probably won’t help defend India because Biden
> loves China and he does not like milk or tea, even though he likes
> milkshakes, that’s not the same thing as milk because it’s made
> from ice cream. You can fact check that. But Biden also loves
> Iran, because they hate America and he does too.

> But Europe, who the Democrats think did such a wonderful job of
> locking down their countries to get rid of the coronavirus, are
> now resurging with the stuff and their economies are trashed. In
> America, we are getting back on our feet but the resurgence of
> coronavirus is all Trumps fault because he banned travel from
> China and Europe and listened to the CDC for guidance but then he
> killed 200,000 Americans with a virus that China unleashed on the
> world but the Democrats think that Trump did it because they don’t
> believe anything bad about the Chinese and they believe all kinds
> of bad lies about Trump.

> Africa countries owe too much money to all the other countries on
> Earth to really be on anyone’s side. Anyway, they hate each other
> so much and they kill each other so much that it’s not hard to
> just forget about them. I don’t know all that much about South
> America except that every country there is liable to be overthrown
> every now and again so who knows when or where that will happen. I
> have heard that Chile is wonderful because the government is open
> about UFO’s and tells the people the truth about them. I don’t
> know if their government tells the people the truth about anything
> else. There is so much lying going on everywhere that I think no
> one knows how to tell the truth anymore.

> I think I would really like to move to Greenland because the ice
> is melting there and there should be some really fertile and rich
> soil underneath it all. I think there are about a thousand people
> who live there and I’m sure they are like me, they just want all
> this bad stuff in the world to go away.

> But since I can’t move to Greenland, I really do appreciate this
> website that helps me at least know why the world is in such
> shambles and to prepare for it to get worse…then it will get
> better. Because that IS what happens according to Generational
> Dynamics. That’s the world I’m looking forward to. Thank you,
> John!

That's a pretty good summary of the world. Thanks.

The "youthful protesters in America" are not just too stupid to
understand communism. In almost all cases, they're too stupid to even
understand second grade math.

But what's this about UFOs in Chile?

[Guest]

Japan’s Fisheries Agency has advised Japanese fishing boats to avoid certain areas within Japan’s own exclusive economic zone and operate elsewhere after thousands of Chinese fishing boats ignored Tokyo’s previous warnings.
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13856515

Just more incremental provocation by the Chinese. Not a surprise to see it but I wonder how much farther Japan will have to retreat before the people demand that the government take a stand.

[John]

** 23-Oct-2020 World View: China's fishing fleet in Japan

> Japan’s Fisheries Agency has advised Japanese fishing boats to
> avoid certain areas within Japan’s own exclusive economic zone and
> operate elsewhere after thousands of Chinese fishing boats ignored
> Tokyo’s previous warnings.

> http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13856515

> Just more incremental provocation by the Chinese. Not a surprise
> to see it but I wonder how much farther Japan will have to retreat
> before the people demand that the government take a stand.

Those fishing boats are not just there for fishing. They're
essentially part of China's military, and are equipped with
intelligence gathering and communications equipment for the military.
In any war between China and Japan, the fishing fleet will play an
essential role, and may even take part in the fighting.

One thing that confuses me about this article is the confused
non-response by the Japanese. I guess that must be a policy to avoid
provoking a military confrontation with China, but as you point out,
it won't be long before Japanese nationalism becomes a factor.

[John]

** 26-Oct-2020 World View: Stock market selloff from Wuhan Coronavirus surge

There's a major selloff going on in the stock market today,
with the Dow down around 700 points at this moment.

Analysts are blaming it on the major surge in coronavirus cases in
several countries in Europe, resulting in new lockdowns and economic
restrictions that will hurt the economies of several countries.
There's also a surge going on in the United States, though not as
great, but there are concerns that it will force lockdowns here as
well. Nonetheless, a lot of people are bracing for a possible huge
surge in Wuhan Coronavirus this winter, with the situation worsened by
the spread of the ordinary seasonal flu.

In the meantime, analysts are pointing out that the same surge is not
occurring in the Asian countries -- China, Taiwan, or South Korea.
This continues to be a subject of much debate about the relative
advantages and disadvantages of Western democracies versus Chinese
dictatorships.

[John]

** 26-Oct-2020 World View: English crisis wars

> John, if we go back through Crisis Wars for the Anglosphere, we
> have WWII in 1940, the Civil War in 1860, the American Revolution
> in 1776, and the Glorious Revolution in 1688.

> What about the cycle before that? Did the Union of Crowns in
> James I & VI count as or supplant a Crisis War?

> The reason I ask is because it seems to me that part of the
> buildup to each Crisis War is accumulation of inequality over the
> preceding cycle. This can be seen from economic statistics
> currently and before WWII, and there are indications in
> concentration of northern industry and southern plantations before
> the Civil War. The Revolutionary War was fought over economic
> control by British elites, and Elizabeth I was funding her
> government with royal monopolies just before the union of crowns,
> suggesting growing economic concentration.

> By this theory, the Crisis War serves to relieve economic
> concentration by destroying the power of a substantial portion of
> the elites, such as the southern plantation owners in the Civil
> War. However, it seems possible in unusual circumstances that
> economic concentration could also be relieved through a sudden
> expansion of opportunity, such as the colonization of America
> around the time of the Union of Crowns.

> Thoughts? Was there a Crisis around 1600, and what served as the
> Crisis War?

England's crisis war was the attack of the 'Invicible' Spanish Armada
in 1588.

This led to an Awakening era in England in the 1600s decade, at which
time the King James Bible was created. After that, the next crisis
war was the English Civil War, following by an Awakening era which
climaxed in 1689 with the Glorious Revolution, which was a "velvet
coup" or "bloodless revolution," of a kind that often occur as an
Awakening era climax. (The resignation of Richard Nixon is another
example.) England's next crisis war was the War of the Spanish
Succession, climaxing in 1709 with the disastrous Battle of
Malplaquet.

I summarized the English timeline in my article on 2011 on the
King James Bible:

** 3-Jan-11 News -- Britain celebrates the 400th anniversary of the King James Bible
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e110103


However, keep in mind that the there was a split in the timelines
between the English and the Pilgrims who went to the Netherlands and
then to America. They were no longer in an Awakening era. For them,
the trip to America was like at crisis war, so they went through
a "first turning reset," came to America in a Recovery Era. Their
next crisis war was King Philip's war in the 1670s. I wrote
about all of this in the following article:

** 24-Nov-16 World View -- How the First Thanksgiving led to American independence
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e161124


America's Revolutionary War was a crisis war for the colonists, but a
non-crisis war for the English.