Generational Dynamics World View News

[Guest]

If Generational Dynamics is correct, then it is 100% certain that Turkey will be siding with China in the upcoming war.

The Turks have a near-genocidal hatred for the Armenians, as well as the Kurds. Both the Armenians and the Kurds are Russian allies. Meanwhile, Turkey is in a crisis era. This means that it won't be on the same side as Armenia, the Kurds, or Russia. And we already know that (again, assuming GD is correct) Russia will be siding with the US, because Russia is allied with India and India will be fighting China. At that point, the only possible outcome is that Turkey sides with China.

This will happen despite China's genocidal policies towards the Uighurs and the Kazakhs. Sure, the Turks consider the genocide in Xinjiang to be a sensitive issue. But they won't be in any position to challenge China's ambitions in Central Asia once they end up in a crisis war against Russia. Instead they will have to focus on defeating Russia and its allies, while hoping that they get a piece of Central Asia as a "reward" for allying with China.

The Kurds and the Armenians are long time traditional enemies. It was the ethnic Kurd population that carried out the Armenian genocide after being green lighted by the Young Turk Ottoman government.

Kurds are their own worst enemies.

I don't think China's conquest of Central Asia is a slam dunk. Central Asians are tough. Stalin and Reds cut deals with them to win them over. Churches were blown up in the 20s-30s, but not mosques. The Chinese army is untested and inexperienced. That matters a lot in conducting a war. NATO and Russia have only fought insurgency campaigns in the last 20 plus years. Modern wars between modern armies are different.

Turks joined Germany in WW1 and was neutral in WW2.

Turkey is a starkly divided country now. The Turkish army hates the Islamic government. And many Turkish officers have escaped Turkey and now reside in Greece. Many Turks are crossing illegally into Greece because the Turkish government has cancelled millions of passports. The situation is not as clear cut as you believe. You think is simplistic ways. Maybe you will be correct, but maybe not.

[DaKardii]

Turkey is a starkly divided country now. The Turkish army hates the Islamic government. And many Turkish officers have escaped Turkey and now reside in Greece. Many Turks are crossing illegally into Greece because the Turkish government has cancelled millions of passports. The situation is not as clear cut as you believe. You think is simplistic ways. Maybe you will be correct, but maybe not.

Even the secular opposition in Turkey hates the Armenians and the Kurds. If Turkey fights a crisis war against them (and Russia), the secular opposition will side with Erdogan.

[Guest]

But will they along the Chinese? I doubt that too.

[Guest]

Turkey is a starkly divided country now. The Turkish army hates the Islamic government. And many Turkish officers have escaped Turkey and now reside in Greece. Many Turks are crossing illegally into Greece because the Turkish government has cancelled millions of passports. The situation is not as clear cut as you believe. You think is simplistic ways. Maybe you will be correct, but maybe not.

Even the secular opposition in Turkey hates the Armenians and the Kurds. If Turkey fights a crisis war against them (and Russia), the secular opposition will side with Erdogan.

You're my least favorite Kremlin troll.

[DaKardii]

You're my least favorite Kremlin troll.

How am I a Kremlin troll?

[DaKardii]

Turkish state media claims that Biden's Armenian Genocide comments have damaged Turkish-American relations "beyond repair."

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/analy ... ts/2221926

[John]

** 28-Apr-2021 World View: Turkey's core national national identity

> If Generational Dynamics is correct, then it is 100% certain that
> Turkey will be siding with China in the upcoming war.

> The Turks have a near-genocidal hatred for the Armenians, as well
> as the Kurds. Both the Armenians and the Kurds are Russian
> allies. Meanwhile, Turkey is in a crisis era. This means that it
> won't be on the same side as Armenia, the Kurds, or Russia. And we
> already know that (again, assuming GD is correct) Russia will be
> siding with the US, because Russia is allied with India and India
> will be fighting China. At that point, the only possible outcome
> is that Turkey sides with China.

> This will happen despite China's genocidal policies towards
> the Uighurs and the Kazakhs. Sure, the Turks consider the genocide
> in Xinjiang to be a sensitive issue. But they won't be in any
> position to challenge China's ambitions in Central Asia once they
> end up in a crisis war against Russia. Instead they will have to
> focus on defeating Russia and its allies, while hoping that they
> get a piece of Central Asia as a "reward" for allying with
> China.

This is certainly convoluted logic. There is no principle in
Genertional Dynamics that supports the logic that "It's a crisis era,
and Turkey won't side with Russia, therefore the only possible outcome
is that Turkey sides with China." There are many other possible
outcomes that you haven't considered, including a civil war within
Turkey itself.

You have to look at Turkey's history. Most countries will be
re-fighting World War II, but Turkey will be re-fighting World War I
and the Crimean War. That's why I suggested several possibilities,
such as war in Central Asia, the Caucasus, Crimea, and the Balkans, or
a war with old Ottoman enemies in the Mideast.

The Turkish people came from Central Asia, just as Americans came from
England. The Turkish people could never turn away from the Central
Asians, any more than Americans could turn away from the British. So
the Turks will never side with China against the Uighurs and Kazakhs.
It's much more than a "sensitive issue." It's the core of their
national identity. That stuff about hoping to "get a piece of Central
Asia" as a reward for siding with China is utter nonsense.

As for recognizing the Armenian genocide, that will generate domestic
turmoil, but it will be forgotten soon and won't have any effect on
the core issues for Turkey. The Turkish people have no core national
interests in a war with Western Europe or America.

[Guest]

while hoping that they get a piece of Central Asia as a "reward" for allying with China.

Have you not paid attention at all? The CCP HAS NO FRIENDS. And the Chinese Red leadership does NOT SHARE POWER. No one will gain from an alliance with China. No one. Aligning with China means slavery. Everyone in Asia knows that. Everyone.

[DaKardii]

You have to look at Turkey's history. Most countries will be
re-fighting World War II, but Turkey will be re-fighting World War I
and the Crimean War. That's why I suggested several possibilities,
such as war in Central Asia, the Caucasus, Crimea, and the Balkans, or
a war with old Ottoman enemies in the Mideast.

The Crimean War started out as a three-way conflict between Turkey, France, and Russia over control of the Holy Land. A compromise was reached, but Russia later backed out of the agreement and then invaded the Romanian principalities, prompting Turkey to declare war on Russia. France, Britain, and Sardinia-Piedmont later entered the war on the side of Turkey; Austria nearly did so as well but ended up staying neutral.

As for World War I, in the years immediately beforehand Turkey was a non-aligned country that was on the edge of collapse after losing multiple wars back-to-back. It was not interested in fighting another war, knowing that it would be impossible to win unless it rebuilt and reformed its economy first. However, those plans went out the window when war broke out in Europe. Turkey had been relying on the Great Powers for its economic recovery, and now that the Great Powers were at war virtually all resources that had been allocated to Turkey were being diverted towards their respective war efforts. At this point, Turkey had two options: either pick a side to regain access to those resources, or stay neutral and risk total collapse. Not surprisingly the Turkish government, controlled by the Three Pashas, decided to pick a side. But the Pashas were initially divided on which side to pick. One Pasha preferred the Allies, presumably because he wanted to recover territory that had recently been taken by Austria and Italy, who were both German allies. But the other two Pashas preferred the Central Powers, as they were unwilling to be on the same side as Russia. Thus, Turkey joined the Central Powers. During the war Turkey would make substantial gains in the Caucasus, as much of the Russian military was bogged down in Europe. But those gains would be negated by the Arab Revolt, which resulted in Turkey losing all its Arab provinces and then the war itself. Meanwhile, Turkey waged a massive genocide against its Armenian population, which the Pashas suspected of being a pro-Russian "fifth column."

Based on the above information, three things can be established: (1) The Crimean War was at its core a Russo-Turkish conflict; (2) Turkey's decision to ally with the Central Powers in World War I was motivated by its opposition to Russia; and (3) despite Turkey's historic enmity with Russia there have been occasions where elements of the Turkish government supported allying with Russia in a conflict that would ultimately become a crisis war.

So if one were to predict that Turkey will re-fight both the Crimean War and World War I, then it would make sense to predict that more likely than not Turkey and Russia will be on opposing sides. But notice I'm now saying "more likely than not," and not "100% certain" as I did in previous posts. Why? Because again, in the opening stages of World War I there was a significant part of the Turkish government that supported joining the Allies, and by extension allying with Russia.

So yes, I'll admit that my previous analysis was close-minded. And that I stand corrected.

[Guest]

Would gold be a wise investment now?

Do you think the American government would seize gold held overseas by US citizens? Biden scares the daylights out of me. He really doesn't realize that his polcies will destroy us.