Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Burner Prime

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Burner Prime »

John wrote:
Guest wrote: > It is reported that as part of any weapons deals with Pakistan,
> the US requires remote activated "kill" switches to prevent the
> use of powerful defense tech that violate contract rules. And it
> makes sense that those kill switches could not be defeated by the
> end user.
Where is this reported? Do you have a link?
"However, it is believed that the new F-16s came with many strings attached. The new and upgraded F-16s are said to have tracking devices to remotely disable some of the key systems on the aircraft. Islamabad is also said to have been rendered virtually helpless in servicing the aircraft without America’s help."
https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/int ... leet-by-us

India defeating AMRAAMs:
http://idrw.org/single-sukhoi-30-succes ... -and-nato/

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

I have been out for a bit. Catching up.

John - please feel free to use anything from my site.

I am thoroughly enjoying your book on. Iran and Islam. I did indeed buy a copy. I think buying your books is the best way for all of us to support you.

I am eager to read your new book on China.

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

As we discuss "Coming Wars" it is important that people realize that there is usually a process that is followed.

While shooting or shelling across the border (or even an airstrike or two) is technically an act of war, in most hotspots this frequently occurs, and yet a war does not result.

This is because neither side is really ready to initiate action.

Here is the process, that if followed, means a Nation-State is indeed gearing up to be ready for war. Some of these may take place simultaneously, some may take place out of sequence. Countries may also skip some steps in order to achieve more surprise at the cost of reduced readiness for combat.

1. Construction of bases and holding areas in close proximity to the border.
2. Movement of troops, equipment and supplies from internal bases to the border. Note that this can take quite some time. It can be weeks or even months. Often this is done under the guise of "military exercises".
3. Readiness Drills for Civil Defense.
3. Call up of Reserve Forces.
4. Dispersal of aircraft from main bases (where they are concentrated for ease of maintenance) to subsidiary fields.
5. Naval units all leave port for sea.

Unless most of these things happen (and 4 and 5 can happen only the day before), war is generally not going to actually happen.

Note that recently India announced that it would begin what I have called step 1 above.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 7-Mar-2019 Process to initiate war
Navigator wrote: > As we discuss "Coming Wars" it is important that people realize
> that there is usually a process that is followed.

> While shooting or shelling across the border (or even an airstrike
> or two) is technically an act of war, in most hotspots this
> frequently occurs, and yet a war does not result.

> This is because neither side is really ready to initiate action.

> Here is the process, that if followed, means a Nation-State is
> indeed gearing up to be ready for war. Some of these may take
> place simultaneously, some may take place out of sequence.
> Countries may also skip some steps in order to achieve more
> surprise at the cost of reduced readiness for combat.

> 1. Construction of bases and holding areas in close proximity to
> the border.

> 2. Movement of troops, equipment and supplies from internal bases
> to the border. Note that this can take quite some time. It can
> be weeks or even months. Often this is done under the guise of
> "military exercises".

> 3. Readiness Drills for Civil Defense.

> 3. Call up of Reserve Forces.

> 4. Dispersal of aircraft from main bases (where they are
> concentrated for ease of maintenance) to subsidiary fields.

> 5. Naval units all leave port for sea.

> Unless most of these things happen (and 4 and 5 can happen only
> the day before), war is generally not going to actually happen.

> Note that recently India announced that it would begin what I have
> called step 1 above.
How would these six steps be modified in the case where the "border"
is a sea -- as in the case of China vs Taiwan, Japan or Philippines?

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

You don't go to war with just your navy. If you are going to start a war, the troops and their supplies for an invasion have to be moved to their embarkation ports and loaded onto ships.

The air force then redeploys to airbases near the coast.

The great example of this is how the Japanese got everything loaded, ready, and out to see just before Pearl Harbor.

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Navigator wrote:I have been out for a bit. Catching up.

John - please feel free to use anything from my site.

I am thoroughly enjoying your book on. Iran and Islam. I did indeed buy a copy. I think buying your books is the best way for all of us to support you.

I am eager to read your new book on China.
Same here.
And when is that China book coming out?
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

Navigator wrote: > I am thoroughly enjoying your book on. Iran and Islam. I did
> indeed buy a copy. I think buying your books is the best way for
> all of us to support you.
That's great! How about buying 10,000 copies? That would help me
even more!
Navigator wrote: > I am eager to read your new book on China.
Tom Mazanec wrote: > Same here. And when is that China book coming out?
The book has really ballooned up. The Iran book had 40,000 words in
130 sections and I accessed about 200 sources. The China book is
closing in on 100,000 words in 200 sections, accessing 370 sources.
That's why it's taking so long.

It was originally going to be about 40,000 words, and it was going to
be about China's claims to the South China Sea. After I got into it,
I realized that China has no claims whatsoever to the South China Sea.
It's totally a hoax. So then I changed the objective of the book to
figuring out China's "Century of Humiliation." After I got into that,
a major question arose: Why didn't the same thing happen to Japan? So
the third objective of the book was to compare China with Japan, and
what I discovered is that Japan has repeatedly and consistently bested
China in all areas -- economically, diplomatically, militarily, and in
governance. That led to my conclusion that China is justifying its
barbaric actions by seeking revenge against Japan.

I read through the entire manuscript this morning. There are really
only a few sections that need to be added or edited, but overall it
looks pretty good. So maybe by the end of March.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Guest wrote:Any idea of how long it will take before NK goes beserk again? I mean do you see missile tests in the next few weeks or months? I can't imagine that the US would do nothing in response. Is war this year in Korea a pretty safe bet?

Also, have you heard that China blew up an ancient Buddha statue a few days ago? It's a big deal in Asia. I'm in Asia.
How will blowing up an ancient statue boost the CCP's popularity? Who is driving the ship?

War soon, you think? I do.

I really dont care

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by I really dont care »

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/ ... IJ-PckzZdh

e bulk of Bannon’s 40-minute speech was spent unleashing a bitter diatribe against China, which he argued is posing a threat to “Japan, the United States and the Pacific.”

He branded it a “hegemonic” and “totalitarian” power that thrives on technologies it “stole” from Japan and the U.S., while alleging that Chinese people are “oppressed,” “tortured” and “abused” by high-echelon officials within the Chinese Communist Party.

“The defenders of the CCP say, ‘China is not expansionist … It’s always their neighbors that are expansionist,’ ” Bannon said. “That is quite simply a lie.”

“The radical cadre in the CCP is the most geopolitically ambitious, aggressive, expansionist power in world history,” he said, explaining how China’s trademark “One Belt, One Road” initiative preys on infrastructure-hungry developing countries by lending them money that “in no way can be paid back,” to put them under Beijing’s control.

Bannon sought to rally support from LDP lawmakers by emphasizing that against such a backdrop, Japan must stand firm and fight China’s assertive rise in solidarity with a Trump-led America.

If the “strong, robust” combination of Japan and the U.S. is realized, he said, “there is nobody in the Pacific that can stand up to that. China is a paper tiger.”

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 8-Mar-2019 Shocking China export figures may signal global recession

Analysts are describing China's February import-export figures as
"shocking," and possibly a signal of a global recession.

February exports fell 20.7% from a year earlier, far worse than the
expected 4.8% drop. China still had a trade surplus, as usual, but it
was $4.12 billion, much smaller than the forcasted $26.38 billion.

China’s data on Friday showed its surplus with the United States
narrowed to $14.72 billion in February from $27.3 billion in January,
and it has promised to buy more U.S. goods such as agricultural
products as part of the trade discussions.

Many people are blaming China's weak trade figures on the tariffs
imposed by the Trump administration in conjunction with the trade
talks.
  • China came through the 2008 financial crisis by huge spending
    programs, and it's catching up to them. The debt-to-GDP was at 250%
    in mid-2018, up from 14% in 2008. Today, in 2019, Goldman Sachs says
    that it's over 300%.
  • The country is riddled with loss-making factories, with excess
    production capacity, insolvent "zombie" companies, all parts of a
    wasteful economy created by debt, corruption and extreme
    centralization of power in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party.
  • In 2018, the rate of corporate debt defaults set new records.
  • Nonperforming bad loans are a record levels, estimated at a total
    of $8.5 trillion, 24% of total credit.
  • Capital outflows and capital flight is rampant, as Chinese
    investors have been driving up real estate prices in many western
    capitals, as in 2018 they remained the top foreign residential real
    estate buyers in the US for six years in a row.
  • China's birth rate keeps falling, despite ending the one-child
    policy in 2016, and is now the lowest since 1949.
A lot of people, including the Chinese themselves, believe that a
government-controlled economy will never have a recession because the
government can print money or issue regulations to prevent it.
Actually, the opposite is true. Government-controlled economies are
always a disaster, because the businesses being controlled have no
incentive to develop new products, or to cut bloated bureacracies, or
to end unprofitable businesses, since the government always bails them
out. The result is that a government-controlled economy crashes
harder and faster than a free market economy.

That's what's happening in China. The CCP spent barrels of money, but
has only created bloated bureacracies, zombie companies and ghost
cities. As I wrote recently, except for financial services companies,
there are no profitable companies in China except for one: Huawei.
And Huawei is under attack internationally because it's more and more
widely understood that Huawei devices and chips have backdoors that
can be controlled by China's military.

The Chinese economy accounts for almost a third of global growth,
which is why many economists are predicting a global recession.

A Chinese recession will certainly cause more public protests, as
there are already hundreds of thousands of "mass events" each year.
China has had massive rebellions throughout its history, the last two
of which were Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49) or the Taiping
Rebellion (1852-64).

China is overdue for its next massive rebellion, and the CCP criminals
are aware of that, which is why they've built concentration camps and
crematoria for a million Muslim Uighurs in East Turkistan (Xinjiang
province), they're blowing up Buddhist statues, demolishing Christian
churches, slaughtering Buddhist Tibetans in Tibet Province, and
demanding that the new Yellow Emperor, Xi Jinping, be the only person
who may be worshipped as God.

------ Sources:

--- China February exports tumble the most in three years, spur fears
of 'trade recession'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN1QP0CA
(Reuters)

--- China's Slowdown Is Exposing The Cracks In The Global Economy
https://seekingalpha.com/article/424723 ... al-economy
(Seeking Alpha)

--- China's exports fall more than 20% in February; overall trade data
come in much weaker
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/08/china-f ... -data.html
(CNBC)

--- China’s exports plunge more than 20%
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/03/artic ... e-than-20/
(Asia Times)

--- Chinese exports fall amid US tariffs, weak global demand
https://www.apnews.com/fb6fe35a2c3442b3927fbe46fa025fd6 (AP)

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