Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
bluebird
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 7:59 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by bluebird »

@Navigator - Totally agree...If/when the electric power goes out, people generally suffer tremendously without their electronic devices. Preparations should be made to plan accordingly.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

Navigator wrote: > First Issue - USA / China Internal Conflict:

> I believe that by now enough people in the US hate their own
> country that there are enough for an insurgency should an outside
> party attack. They want to see the established systems destroyed
> or overturned, and would be happy to help out whoever is attacking
> us.

> The current political divide is much worse than at any time since
> Vietnam, and the CCP will be happy to exploit this. The political
> vitriol will only escalate in the climate of a financial meltdown,
> as each side will blame the other for it happening. I do not
> believe that the "insurgents" will be anywhere near a majority,
> but I believe there will be enough of them to seriously impede our
> war-fighting ability for quite some time. I predict they will
> primarily target the power grid, as it is our Achille's heel.

> I do not believe the USA could even conquer China by physically
> occupying it. This would be a monumental task, and is not
> militarily viable, even under full mobilization. The only way to
> end the war would be by leveraging what you have brought up,
> internal Chinese divisions, plus using Chinese that are
> anti-CCP. In the end, the Chinese people have to rise up against
> the CCP. Just like they did against the Kaiser in 1918. After all,
> the Germans in WW1 did not have a foreign invasion (the short
> Russian thrust into East Prussia in 1914 aside), but succumbed to
> revolution after military reverses.

I just want to respond to your comments on the country being divided.

You can't compare today's America to the 1960s. The 1960s was a
generational Awakening era. The fault line was horizontal,
generational and political, pitting the war survivors (older
generation) versus the younger generation (Boomers).

For the same reason, you can't compare a war today to people rising up
against the Kaiser in 1918. Once again, that was an Awakening era
war, like our Vietnam war, and it was extremely unpopular almost from
the beginning. (See Im Westen Nichts Neues, All Quiet on the Western
Front.)


** 2-July-2006: Politicians commemorate Battle of the Somme, July 1, 1916
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e060702



Today in America the fault line is vertical, the red states versus the
blue states but, still, it's purely political, not military. No red
state is going to raise an army and invade a blue state, or vice
versa. [Paragraph corrected]

America in the 1930s was just as politically divided as it is today.
There was still a north-south divide left over from the Civil War.
There were endless violent left-wing riots by the unions and the
communists. It was the middle of the Great Depression, and people
were living under bridges. And, most important, FDR was just as
divisive as Trump is today. FDR actually tried a semi-coup by packing
the Supreme Court, which would have given him control of two branches
of government if he had succeeded.

But despite the divisiveness of FDR, the country was quickly united
behind FDR, first by the attack on Pearl Harbor, and then by the
Bataan Death march. In generational theory, this is the "Regeneracy,"
which refers to the recreation of civic unity for the first time since
the end of the previous crisis war.

So, exactly the same thing will happen today. If there's an attack on
American soil, or a major military defeat overseas, then Americans
will put aside their political differences and unite behind Trump (or
the next president) overnight.

I used to say stuff like this during Obama's presidency, saying that
the country would be instantly united behind Obama. I remember the
fury I heard from the conservatives at this suggestion, with one
person saying that if he were "behind Obama," then he would shoot.
Nonetheless, a Regeneracy event like Pearl Harbor or the Bataan Death
March would immediately unify the country behind Trump.

And just as the "greatest generation" rushed out, without complaining,
to fight against the Nazis and Japanese, there will be a new "greatest
generation" that will not hesitate to step up to fight today's
enemies.

China will have its hands full fighting Japan, Philippines, Vietnam,
India, and Russia. Just as there was a race to reach Berlin
in 1945, there may be a race to reach Beijing in the next war.

Mr e

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Mr e »

I sure miss the daily brief!
I'm here in the middle east supporting our U.S.A. mission.
And I've always been sure I would have a front row seat to armageddon.
Hoping for the best, prepared for the worst.
Sooner rather than later would be more favorable for western thought in this coming battle of civilizations.
And the prospects for a short battle grow less likely as time goes on.

CH86
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:51 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by CH86 »

John wrote:
China will have its hands full fighting Japan, Philippines, Vietnam,
India, and Russia. Just as there was a race to reach Berlin
in 1945, there may be a race to reach Beijing in the next war.
But if there is a nuclear exchange, it would be hard to have a race to Beijing, if Beijing has been reduced to a smoking crater.

CH86
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:51 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by CH86 »

John wrote:
But, you know, there's no hurry. Maybe no one will have to pee until
2030.
A World War 2030 scenario would unfold very differently than a World War 2019/present day scenario. This is because by 2030 boomers would not be running the United States whereas today in 2019 boomers are still in there. The Boomer politicians would have retired or died largely by 2030 regardless of whether the Crisis war had occurred by then or not.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

Mr e wrote: > I'm here in the middle east supporting our U.S.A. mission. And
> I've always been sure I would have a front row seat to armageddon.
> Hoping for the best, prepared for the worst. Sooner rather than
> later would be more favorable for western thought in this coming
> battle of civilizations. And the prospects for a short battle
> grow less likely as time goes on.
Thanks for your comment. You seem to be in a position in the Mideast
to have a view of what's going on that's not apparent from the media.
Could you expand on some of the things you're saying?

Particularly, why do you feel that "the prospects for a short battle
grow less likely as time goes on"?
Mr e wrote: > I sure miss the daily brief!
Well, I would actually love to start writing them again, but after
writing thousands of articles for free, I have to stop because I'm
running out of money. If you know anyone out there in the
U.S.A. mission in the Mideast who is willing to pay me a salary, then
I would readily begin writing them again.

I've described the situation several times in the past, and basically
nothing's changed except that time has passed, so let me take this
opportunity to recap.

Since 2003, I've written 6,000 Generational Dynamics articles
containing thousands of generational theory analyses and predictions
about hundreds of countries, and all of these analyses and predictions
have come true or are trending true. None has turned out to be false.
There is no web site, analyst, journalist, or politician in the world
with anything close to the analytic and forecasting success of
Generational Dynamics.

Since 2010, I've cross-posted over 3,000 World View articles on
Breitbart. Although they've collected ad revenue related to my
articles, and although there were many times when my articles were the
only things they had available to publish, they've adamently refused
to pay me.

I've funded Generational Dynamics work with my salary as a Senior
Software Engineer. However, in the last two years it's been almost
impossible for anyone over age 60 (or even over age 40) to get a job
as a software engineer. If you don't believe this, then google the
words "IT age discrimination." In other words, it's no longer
possible for me to get a regular salary as a Software Engineer, even
though I have a lot more skills and experience than people who
actually do get hired.

So I've now been unemployed for two years, and I'm coming to the point
where I'm going to run out of money this year, probably in the
July-October time frame, and that will be the end of both me and
Generational Dynamics. I'm very grateful to those of you who have
provided one-time donations. They mean a lot to me, but I need a
regular salary. In the two months or so since I started writing this,
I have never received so much as a tiny nibble of hope from anyone who
might be willing to pay a salary. So I've come to the conclusion that
I am truly alone and hopeless in an effort to get a salary.

So I've decided to use the limited time I have left to focus on
particular projects that I think are the most valuable. The most
important right now is the book on China. I thought that I would get
it done by December, then by January, and then by February. February
is still possible, but we'll see. After that there are a couple more
things that I want to do. I'm open to requests if anyone wants to
make one.

One big issue is the survival of the GenerationalDynamics.com and
gdxforum.com web sites. These may well disappear unless someone is
willing to take responsibility for them. It requires some technical
expertise, and costs around $50 per month for the web hosting and the
periodic domain registration (though a lot of that is prepaid right
now). My preference would be that they be taken over by an
organization -- educational, analyst, business or government, but I'll
consider any offer.

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 9-Feb-2019 Turkey condemns China's Uighur 'concentration camps,' then backs down

Turkey's Foreign Ministry on Saturday posted a harsh condemnation
of China's Uighur policy:
Turkey's Foreign Ministry wrote: > It is no longer a secret that more than one million Uighur Turks
> incurring arbitrary arrests are subjected to torture and political
> brainwashing in internment camps and prisons. Uighurs who are not
> detained in these camps are under heavy pressure. ...

> The reintroduction of internment camps in the XXIst century and
> the policy of systematic assimilation against the Uighur Turks
> carried out by the authorities of China is a great shame for
> humanity.
The problem is that numerous news reports on the statement, including
those from Turkish media, quoted the statement as saying "torture and
political brainwashing in concentration camps and prisons." The
Turk's apparently succumbed to pressure from the Chinese to stop
saying "concentration camps," but it was too late to get the entire
statement withdrawn.

"Concentration camps" is a phrase that I've used in the past as well,
since that's the name to describe similar camps constructed by the
Nazis to house the Jews before exterminating them.

It's become increasingly evident in the last year that the Chinese are
imitating the Nazis (whom they've always admired) by building
concentration camps and crematoria, and sending over a million Uighurs
there to be subject to beatings, torture, rape and other atrocities
before executing them. The Chinese call them "re-education centers,"
and have even released ghoulish videos of Uighurs sitting in
classrooms being "re-educated."

It continues to amaze me that there are actually three genocides going
on in three countries today, and almost nobody cares. Even though
Sunni Muslims are being exterminated in all three cases (China,
Burma/Myanmar, and Syria), there's no outrage being expressed by any
of the 50 Muslim-majority countries. And even though two of the
ethnic groups -- Uighurs in China and Turkmens in Syria -- have Turkic
origins, Turkey has been almost completely silent.

So Saturday's statement is actually shocking, because it's so harsh,
even in its modified form. The thing that triggered Turkey's
statement is the reported death from torture of Abdurehim Heyit, a
formerly very popular Uighur sing and musician, who was once venerated
across China. He studied music in Beijing and later performed with
national arts troupes. Heyit's detention reportedly stemmed from a
song he performed titled Fathers. It takes its lyrics from a Uighur
poem calling on younger generations to respect the sacrifices of those
before them. But three words in the lyrics - "martyrs of war" -
apparently led Chinese authorities to conclude that Heyit presented a
terrorist threat.

In an story last week on the BBC, the anchor quoted the Chinese media
as saying that the purpose of the Xinjiang policy was: "to cleanse the
environment that breeds terrorism," which is consistent with the
phrase "ethnic cleansing."

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) policy in Xinjiang is one of the
stupidest policies of any country in history. The CCP people are much
too stupid to win a war against America, but that won't stop them from
creating a catastrophe that will be a disaster for the entire world,
and most especially for them.


http://www.mfa.gov.tr/sc_-06_-uygur-tur ... -hk.en.mfa
(Turkey Foreign Ministry)

https://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/20 ... tion-camps
(Daily Sabah, Turkey)

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/t ... ps/1388216
(Anadolu News Agency, Turkey)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47187170
(BBC)

--- Related


** 16-Nov-18 World View -- Fifteen countries challenge China's human rights in Xinjiang province
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e181116



** 27-Jan-19 World View -- George Soros speech at Davos marks significant global shift against China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e190127



http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... =50#p43891
(GD Forum - genocides)

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

John wrote:
Guest wrote:
zzazz wrote:IMHO The Road (Cormac McCarthy) describes the post-war world far more accurately than any of the fantasies posted in this forum. If you are over 30, your best strategy is to live in a big city or near a major military base and pray that when the war comes you won't even know it.
I read the book. I agree. I have no interest in surviving a nuclear war. I want to be at ground zero with my family.
I agree as well.
Nah,.. where's the fun in that!?

..'course, I have a rather warped definition of "fun", but....

:) Aloha to y'all, gangies! <shaka nui!>
(( ..and "aloha" means "love" as I use it, and not "hello/bye-bye". 'Though it COULD mean that, too. ))

CH86
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:51 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by CH86 »

JohnX, The Boomer "rules of engagement" would not continue to be applied during a world war. Even now we don't really know how much destruction a nuclear detonation would cause, Hiroshima had mostly wooden/bamboo structures, Nagasaki was similar but had more wooden structures but still ramshackle housing stock. While Modern nukes are a lot bigger than those used in 1945, they are much smaller in yield than nukes were during the cold war. If Nukes simply turned out to be a scaled up version of aerial bombing during WW2 (before world war II all sides thought aerial bombing would result in civilization destroying levels of destruction) this turned out not to be the case. If That turns out to be the case than the boomer rules of engagement would collapse. If a Chinese/North Korean Missile or Russian Missile landed on San Francisco, the government would have no choice but to launch a retaliatory strike that was much larger than the original attack because otherwise they would face the danger of a coup.

The Danger of a coup would NOT be because the citizens would not want to take their anger upon the enemy, but PRECISELY BECAUSE the citizens would want to take their anger upon the enemy. Especially if the attacks resulted in a "London 1940 scenario" where expectations of complete destruction turned out to merely be "heavy damage". A government that didn't retaliate with a far worse attack of its own would be deemed incompetent and replaced by one that would retaliate. The chances of Boomer-ism Surviving a WW3 are basically zero/nil.

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

John wrote:** 8-Feb-2019 War between China and Japan

We've addressed how the war between China and the US would proceed,
but one thing that I've never seen discussed anywhere is how the war
between between China and Japan would proceed.

We can assume that China and North Korea will launch missiles at Japan
(as well as America), but will the Chinese go farther? I'm sure
they'd like to. ...

So what are the Chinese planning? Are they planning to send Chinese
(or Korean) troops to invade and occupy Japan? ...

On the other hand, what are the Japanese planning? Are they planning
to do what they've done so many times in the past -- invade Korea and
China?

I think that this is a really interesting question. Does anyone have
any thoughts?
I doubt that the Chinese want Japanese land per se (territory). What they seem to want is the extermination of the very IDEA of Japan.

( Are the Japanese considered the "Jews" of Asia? )

The Chinese would rather bake the islands into radioactive lasagna, and keep it nice and bubbling hot and uninhabited, than bother with occupying their territory.

The question is whether they'd do that "baking" before they discovered they were losing, or after.

The best chance to toast those "inferior superiors" might be at the beginning, but that might be too strategically "expensive", until the price of a "final solution" becomes trivial during the death throes of the "Chinese Dream",.. as they might well see themselves as the purifiers of the world from the "Japanese Pestilence".

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