Generational Dynamics World View News

[Talking doesnt work]

trump just wants a deal. i don't want a ******* deal with our biggest enemy china. i want a full on ballz to the wallz trade war that lasts fifty years.

This is what we have to do.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

...
Possible scenarios:

• US-China negotiators will reach a new agreement quickly (not
  likely)
• Trump will postpone the new tariffs
• The tariffs will go into effect on Friday (likely)
• The tariffs will continue for months (likely)
• The Chinese economy will be hurt (likely)
• The Chinese economy will be devastated (unlikely but possible)
• The American economy will be hurt, but only in pockets
• The tariffs will trigger a stock market panic (unlikely but
  possible)
• The stock market will mostly discount the new tariffs in the next
  few weeks (likely)

So there you go, people. Place your bets!

...

• The tariffs will go into effect on Friday (likely)
• The tariffs will continue for months (likely)
• The Chinese economy will be hurt (severely but "quietly") (likely)
• The American economy will be (trivially) hurt, but only in pockets
• The stock market will mostly discount the new tariffs in the next few weeks (likely)

[FishbellykanakaDude]

... NO sovereign states has the right to tell another sovereign state what form of government they should have, this is what we are doing in Venezuela and trying to do with China and Iran right now.

Absolutely correct! (OMG, agreement!?)

But the corollary of this "sovereign state" principle is that NO sovereign state has the right to prohibit any other state from acting as they wish to "correct" the "bad behavior" of any other state.

Any state can TRY to prevent another state from "interfering" with any other state's "internal state", but that's simply a restatement of the sovereign state's right to do as they wish to "correct" another state's "bad behavior".

In other words, you (a state) can't claim "abject immunity from accountability" for state behavior by simply invoking "border magic".

Borders are not magical. They are negotiated and fluid, inasmuch as there is a reason for them to be fluid.

Tyrants, such as CH etcetera, absolutely LOVE the idea that "international law" should be "magically effective™" (not to be confused with "magically delicious™"), as then they wouldn't have to "play well with others" (their population mostly) or spend any effort countering the effects of their tyranny from without.

[John]

** 09-May-2019 Tariffs

It's really quite remarkable. The new tariffs are scheduled to take
effect a little over two hours from now, and analysts in Washington
and around Asia are sitting around wondering whether Trump will call
the new tariffs off. It's really quite funny to watch one "expert"
after another on tv say, "I have no idea what's going to happen."

Update (10 pm ET):
The BBC says that negotiations have ended without a breakthrough.
There's rumor of a planned phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping

Update (11:30 pm ET):
Bloomberg TV reports that the tariff increases will go into effect at
midnight (in half an hour), but that they won't have any real effects
for a couple of weeks, and that negotiations are scheduled to continue
on Friday. Stocks in China are doing well on Friday.


Update (11:50 pm ET):
Bloomberg TV reports that commodities, especially corn and soybean
prices, are under pressure, since China is expected to retaliate
against American farm produce. On the other hand, China is
experiencing a shortage of corn.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

...

I beg the question here globalists: how come at no point before 1945 and to the lesser extent even to the present, has there been no notion of "Crime" and "Criminal" at the international level.

Firstly, I'm not a globalist, but I might have an answer to your question...

"Countries" through the ages have been "creatures of family"; that family being a Noble Family, or Conquering Family, or "Loose" Mafia-like Family (which includes res publica styled governments, of course, such as ours).

Countries can't be criminal, because they're not people.

People who rule countries can be criminal, as they are people.

Under what "law" are these ruling people criminals? Under the "Law of Sovereign Peerage" (for want of a better name) between all rulers of sovereign countries.

Each sovereign ruler may charge any of his peers with criminality, so defined arbitrarily by each ruler.

That rule has existed, codified or not, for eternity past and future.

Of course, he who invokes this law stirs quite the hornets nest!

It is the globalist by trying to insert these notions of "Crime" , "Criminal" and "international punishment", directly contrary to 10000 years of world history, into the international level that is creating the possibility of a Nuclear third world war leading to a civilization collapse and a dark age. ...

Your bizarre view of history is precisely as "weird" and inbred as doctrinaire Marxism.

International Criminals have been battled and overthrown since before we had thumbs, moron.

Using the "threat" of civilizational collapse to justify not attacking criminals/tyrants is a pretty nifty tactic to hide from justice!

Now, I'm not saying that there isn't a pretty high threshold of "being annoying" below which a "tyrant" should be left largely alone,.. but still... options... hang onto those options people.

[John]

** 10-May-2019 World View: Syria's Idlib: Al-Assad's assault continues, displacing 250,000


The renewed assault by Bashar al-Assad's forces, backed by Russian
airstrikes, has been going on for two weeks, forcing about 200,000
people from their homes, according to various reports.

Idlib is supposed to be a ceasefire "de-escalation zone," according to
an agreement last year among Russia, Iran, and Turkey. However, there
have been other "de-escalation zones," negotiated by the same parties,
in Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, and elsewhere, and Russia has ignored its
own commitments, and backed al-Assad's assaults.

Al-Assad has been conducting genocide and ethnic cleansing of Arab
Sunnis. He uses the same techniques in each region. He begins by
bombing peaceful protesters, particularly women and children. As soon
as someone become violent in revenge, he declares the whole community
of Arab Sunnis to be "terrorists," and uses that as an excuse for
full-scale genocide and ethnic cleansing. The genocide is performed
with missiles, barrel bombs, chlorine gas and Sarin gas, all
particularly targeting women and children, as well as schools,
markets, and hospitals.

Idlib is the place where all the Sunni Arabs fled with their home
regions were being targeted for ethnic cleansing by the regime forces
of Bashar al-Assad in 2014-2018, doubling the population of Idlib from
1.5 million to over 3 million. Of the three million civilians, there
are an estimated 60,000 or so anti-Assad rebels in Idlib, including
both "moderate" rebels and jihadists in al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham (HTS), formerly the al-Nusra Front.

Al-Assad has always said that he would attack Idlib and the three
million "terrorists" living them, but he was held off by the agreement
between Turkey and Russia. It's always been just a matter of
time before al-Assad completely dumped the agreement.

Turkey has been begging Russia to stop al-Assad from doing a
full-scale assault, since there will be a massive humanitarian
disaster, and hundreds of thousands or millions of people will pour
across the border into Turkey, which is already hosting 3.5 million
Syrian refugees. Hundreds of thousands of the Idlib Idlib refugees
will continue on into Europe, resulting in a new European migrant
crisis.

There have been reports that al-Assad has been targeting women
and children in markets, schools and hospitals, which is his
usual practice. However, there have not been any reports yet
that al-Assad has used chlorine gas or Sarin gas. This will be
part of the maximal assault when it begins.

However, al-Assad is apparently holding back from a maximal assault
for the time being, under pressure from Russia and Turkey. The
purpose of the current limited assault is to regain government control
over the strategic M4 and M5 highways to open the way between the
Mediterranean city of Latakia with Hama and Aleppo.

Turkish media says that Russia's defense minister Sergei Lavrov says
that Russia is ending its airstrikes as of Thursday morning. Anything
that comes out of Lavrov's mouth is generally garbage with no relation
to the truth, so we'll have to see whether Russian airstrikes have
really stopped.

The Syrian civil war has been out of the headlines for a few months
now, and a lot of people believe that it's winding down or over. But
that ignores the fact that Bashar al-Assad has proven himself to be a
war criminal and a psychopathic monster who takes pleasure in torture
and atrocities.

Al-Assad has vowed to kill all three million "terrorists" in
Idlib. When he begins the maximal assault, and starts again
using chlorine gas and Sarin gas, the Syrian war will be
back in the headlines.

Syria's civil war has been out of the headlines for a few months, but
it will be back once refugees start pouring into Europe again.

---- Sources:

-- Q&A: Syria's Assad sets sights on Idlib, the final showdown?
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... n-62953823
(AP, 10-May-2019)


-- Syrian Government Forces Advance in NW Region Between Idlib, Hama
https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/libr ... -voa01.htm
(Global Security, 9-May-2019)

-- Assad regime attacks on Idlib kill 114, displace more than 250,000
https://www.msn.com/en-ae/news/other/as ... ar-AABaIH6
(Qatar Tribune, 10-May-2019)

-- Turkey asks Russia to halt airstrikes in Syria's Idlib
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey ... lib-143300
(Hurriyet, Turkey, 10-May-2019)



--- Related:

** 1-Dec-18 World View -- Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e181201



** 28-Oct-18 World View -- Syria peace summit issues delusional call for political solution in Idlib
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e181028

[mps92]

There have been reports that al-Assad has been targeting women
and children in markets, schools and hospitals, which is his
usual practice. However, there have not been any reports yet
that al-Assad has used chlorine gas or Sarin gas. This will be
part of the maximal assault when it begins.

Al-Assad has vowed to kill all three million "terrorists" in
Idlib. When he begins the maximal assault, and starts again
using chlorine gas and Sarin gas, the Syrian war will be
back in the headlines.

I know the US should be aligning with the Shiites, but these people are sick. I guess I can't blame the US for supporting the rebels.

According to Wiki, Sunnis make up 60% of Syria, while other Muslims make up 15% at most. 15% of Syria is Christian, with the remaining 10% having no religious affiliation.

So who is joining Assad's army? Is it just a bunch of Shiites that Assad has armed? Seems kind of hard to perform genocide on the majority group.

Amazing how there are no headlines in the media about this. We've been waiting years for this assault to come, but when it happens, there's not a word from the media.

It'll also be interesting to see what Europe does, and whether they're bold enough (or dumb enough) to accept more refugees. Pay attention to the European Parliament elections that are coming up, on May 23. If we're lucky, this will be a last minute issue that drives people towards the Eurosceptic parties.

[John]

** 10-May-2019 Shia Alawites

> I know the US should be aligning with the Shiites, but these
> people are sick. I guess I can't blame the US for supporting the
> rebels.

> According to Wiki, Sunnis make up 60% of Syria, while other
> Muslims make up 15% at most. 15% of Syria is Christian, with the
> remaining 10% having no religious affiliation.

> So who is joining Assad's army? Is it just a bunch of Shiites that
> Assad has armed? Seems kind of hard to perform genocide on the
> majority group.

> Amazing how there are no headlines in the media about this. We've
> been waiting years for this assault to come, but when it happens,
> there's not a word from the media.

> It'll also be interesting to see what Europe does, and whether
> they're bold enough (or dumb enough) to accept more refugees. Pay
> attention to the European Parliament elections that are coming up,
> on May 23. If we're lucky, this will be a last minute issue that
> drives people towards the Eurosceptic parties.

Bashar al-Assad is an Alawite. The Alawites are an ethnic group
aligned with a variant of Shiism, occupying a region in western Syria.
The historic enemies of the Alawites are the Turkmen ethnic group and
the Arab Sunnis. Al-Assad, with Iran's cooperation, is apparently
trying to exterminate all the Turkmens and Arab Sunnis in order to
allow the Alawites to spread. At the same time, Iran would like to
establish their own communities in Syria.

[JCP]

The Serbs were the minority in Bosnia, and they carried genocide. They had all the weapons of the JNA. The Bosnian Muslims were not allowed to buy any weapons because of a UN embargo. The Serbs carried out genocidal war against the Croats because they had all of the weapons. Albanians are 90% (some say 95%) of Kosova, and the Serbs attempted genocide--because they had all of the weapons. Mass rape is also a central element of Serbian warfare.

The Shites in Syria have the national army and most of the weapons. They also have Iranian and Lebanese Shia troops and the Russian air force.

Genocide isn't about numbers; it's about firepower.

[Guest]

Hong Kong lawmakers brawl over controversial extradition law

Hong Kong’s legislature descended into chaos Saturday morning as brawls broke out between politicians debating a controversial extradition law that will extend Beijing’s reach into the former British colony.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/0 ... ition-law/