Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Cynic Hero 86

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cynic Hero 86 »

FishbellykanakaDude wrote:
Guest wrote:
How many times does this have to be said: T h e y _ a r e _ n o t _ r e a d y _ y e t _ f o r _ w a r.
Germany wasn't ready for WW 2, but they still attacked Poland. Russia wasn't ready for WW 1 or WW 2, but they still fought in both. You have obviously not studied history that much. Most countries don't chose war, war chooses them.

The Chinese communists aren't the brightest bunch. They seem to make the wrong choice every time. Why should this time be any different? I expect war to break out any day now. Most likely by accident.
Germany was ready because the doorway to the oil in the east was closing. "Ready" means "the latest possible date where aggressive war-starting has a respectable chance of winning".

Russia was attacked. Those who start wars (especially Gen Crisis Wars) are the aggressors, not the defenders.

DO you REALLY think that WE (the West) are going to start WW3?

Who does that leave to do the starting?

Why should they act before it's most advantageous for them to do so?
Sorry Boomer, but these days China could take Taiwan any time it feels like if they set their hearts to doing so. Its Just been more advantageous for China's economy and internal and external trade and economic prosperity for them to wait instead of invading taiwan.

Cynic Hero 86

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cynic Hero 86 »

Regarding a hypothetical objective being a Chinese war on Japan, This is increasingly unlikely. China and Japan have been systematically improving relations and Ties since 2015. So Much so that Both have sided with each other in a dispute with South Korea. Xi and Abe have also had several shuttle diplomatic trips to each other's capitals over the past 2 years. Chinese and Japanese Warships have attended each other's annual naval reviews just this year.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Cynic Hero 86 wrote:
Sorry Boomer, but these days China could take Taiwan any time it feels like if they set their hearts to doing so. Its Just been more advantageous for China's economy and internal and external trade and economic prosperity for them to wait instead of invading taiwan.
It's still in doubt because of the limited Chinese ability ability to move troops to Taiwan. Flatten all the important stuff with missiles or air strikes, yes. Garrison it with soldiers, that remains to be seen.

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Cynic Hero 86 wrote:
FishbellykanakaDude wrote:
Guest wrote:
Germany wasn't ready for WW 2, but they still attacked Poland. Russia wasn't ready for WW 1 or WW 2, but they still fought in both. You have obviously not studied history that much. Most countries don't chose war, war chooses them.

The Chinese communists aren't the brightest bunch. They seem to make the wrong choice every time. Why should this time be any different? I expect war to break out any day now. Most likely by accident.
Germany was ready because the doorway to the oil in the east was closing. "Ready" means "the latest possible date where aggressive war-starting has a respectable chance of winning".

Russia was attacked. Those who start wars (especially Gen Crisis Wars) are the aggressors, not the defenders.

DO you REALLY think that WE (the West) are going to start WW3?

Who does that leave to do the starting?

Why should they act before it's most advantageous for them to do so?
Sorry Boomer, but these days China could take Taiwan any time it feels like if they set their hearts to doing so. Its Just been more advantageous for China's economy and internal and external trade and economic prosperity for them to wait instead of invading taiwan.
Sorry Whatever-You-Are, but that's precisely what I was saying. :)

China is not ready to go yet because now, as opposed to a more advantageous time in the future, is not when they want to go to war.

..you really should buck up on your reading (english) comprehension. <chuckle!>

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

JCP wrote:
Russia was attacked. Those who start wars (especially Gen Crisis Wars) are the aggressors, not the defenders.
Russia was allied with Nazi Germany from 1939-1941 and jointly attacked Poland and the Baltics.

When Germany attacked Poland in 1939, they were far from ready. Hitler pushed the war himself.
Once again, examine what you think you mean by using the word "ready".

With any voluntary act, being "ready" means it's time to "go" based on the present being a better time than the future to do so.

The current present (18th Nov 17xxhrs-ish) is not a better time than some point in the future for China to go to war.
Russia got donkey punched by their co-conspirator in 1941.

War doesn't seem to ever work out the way people intend it to, unless you are Otto von Bismark.
War is a powerful machine with terrible control mechanisms.

..rather like trying to steer a hurricane with a cable made of cheap plasticine, on a hot day, in a tiny boat,.. while drunk.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

"You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time." -- Donald Rumsfeld

FishbellykanakaDude
Posts: 1313
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:07 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude »

Guest wrote:"You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time." -- Donald Rumsfeld
But why are you ready to go to war at all, if you don't have to?

..and that's the key. Why do you have to?

John
Posts: 11485
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

FishbellykanakaDude wrote:
Guest wrote:"You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time." -- Donald Rumsfeld
But why are you ready to go to war at all, if you don't have to?

..and that's the key. Why do you have to?
Because the population grows faster than the food supply.

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Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4181
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

rather like trying to steer a hurricane with a cable made of cheap plasticine, on a hot day, in a tiny boat,.. while drunk.
Or something like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSAoEf1Ib58
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

Cynic Hero 86

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cynic Hero 86 »

John wrote:
FishbellykanakaDude wrote:
Guest wrote:"You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time." -- Donald Rumsfeld
But why are you ready to go to war at all, if you don't have to?

..and that's the key. Why do you have to?
Because the population grows faster than the food supply.
The developed world still has good food supplies, Most population growth since 2000 has been in the third world. Even Middle east Birthrates have cratered over the past 15 years.

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